Current Affairs Ukraine

[DualityNSNO]

I agree and in one sense Putin shouldn't be allowed a victory, regardless of how hollow, because it will only embolden him in the future for more gains.

But on the other hand, there'll be the train of thought like @tsubaki has mentioned where we should listen and negotiate if we're to de-escalate the situation.

I'm not saying the latter is correct, however it will be on the card for some in the west although perhaps not for Ukraine and Zelenskyy, understandably so.

To some extent, it's a double-edged sword. But, that's the nature of diplomacy as @Martin Alvito has alluded to in the past. I think most of us want Russia out.

On another note, I was showing my ol' man a picture of the Russian general and Putin and he quipped, "Do we want them to be pro-Russian or not?"

I hadn't thought about it that - a bit like von Stauffenberg and the plotters - because pro-Russia is not pro-Putin. They may see getting rid of Putin as sensible.

That means they can either finish the war by pulling out, which is great for us, or actually fighting the war properly to win.

I completely agree, but I don't think it's reasonable to ask for Ukraine to just let go some of their own people, it's not like they'll go "yeah, just run home alright" when they 'obtain' it. Realistically if they were to do that they can probably sue for reparations for the next howevermany years anyway, which will either be accepted OR just spark the "well, if it costs me too much for the next 20 years for 1 region, why don't I just *take* the other regions and pay 0 for the next 0 years?" logic.

The thing with negotiations also, is that the first rule is that you don't negotiate with terrorists. This is not a reasonable, sensible person. It's an act of terror to strike at civilians unprovoked.

How do you think discussions with a man who wants to sit a room away from his own people likely out of fear will go, realistically? I'd like to say he'll forfeit, etc., but this will not happen.

 

[Toffeeslam]

and some say we shouldn't pressure him bcs he is a dictator, so freakin what? irrelevant TODAY IN THIS HOUR. let's deal with the invading dictator first.

Hasn’t Turkey banned Russian forces from using the Bosporus straits after they invaded ?

That’s a pretty big deal considering it’s the only water route in and out of the Black Sea

 

[LostLegend]

What's the deal with the ridiculously long tables? I mean, how can you have a diplomatic conversation from this distance?

Paranoia in case someone tries to bump him off? Good to keep a bit of distance.

 

[PhilM]

Putin doesn’t do diplomatic conversations

They're less conversations and more one-way ramblings and commands. He'll be worried about his safety because of how the war is going on all fronts.

I completely agree, but I don't think it's reasonable to ask for Ukraine to just let go some of their own people, it's not like they'll go "yeah, just run home alright" when they 'obtain' it. Realistically if they were to do that they can probably sue for reparations for the next howevermany years anyway, which will either be accepted OR just spark the "well, if it costs me too much for the next 20 years for 1 region, why don't I just *take* the other regions and pay 0 for the next 0 years?" logic.

The thing with negotiations also, is that the first rule is that you don't negotiate with terrorists. This is not a reasonable, sensible person. It's an act of terror to strike at civilians unprovoked.

How do you think discussions with a man who wants to sit a room away from his own people likely out of fear will go, realistically? I'd like to say he'll forfeit, etc., but this will not happen.

Neither do I, in the slightest. The issue being those people in the limelight and the officials behind the scenes may have a different view.

Look at the initial response from the west to the whole affair: shamefully, they were in essence left to their own devices. Only now is support being ramped up.

You also had countries looking for exemptions on sanctions. Therefore, it's unfortunately realistic to expect some to make concessions for whatever reason.

They'll argue stability in the region; they may talk about de-escalation with Russia back (cough... appease); they will look at a return to financial stability.

Ukraine would be fluffin' stupid to accept it, although again, shamefully, they're relying on support from the west in terms of finances and military equipment, so...

God, I hope none of the above occurs and will lament those who ever do it, still I wouldn't be surprised if it does occur. The issue is where on the spectrum.

On another note, Ukraine will be vary wary of some of the west due to what originally occurred (or didn't occur), so they may not be as willing to listen.

 

[Martin Alvito]

If there is a God, he will have a stroke or a heart attck.
Watch The Death of Stalin tonight

Great film, if dark. Fantastic cast. Nearly everything that comes out of Jason Isaac's mouth is funny, and the trick casting of Buscemi as Khrushchev is brilliant.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I think Zelenskyy could cough up Donbas (most likely in the form of an 'independent' state) in return for reparations without setting up another war. The international system would be much better prepared to deter Round 2 from breaking out than it was this time.


If Putin's armed forces get bogged down, he'd probably be amenable. A lot depends on what happens in the next few days. I think that the exact situation that has to obtain for this deal to happen is this: Kharkiv falls, Kiev is teetering but stable, and Putin's situation at home gets somewhat chaotic.

Without all of those pieces, it seems likely that one side or the other holds out for a better deal, and the fighting continues. There's also the problem of getting the US, UK and EU to pull the sanctions, which would have to be part of any deal.

To be incredibly cynical about it, I can see Washington, London and Brussels calculating that they'd prefer to see someone else's soldiers die in order to further their long-term objective of bringing down Putin. As an example, the President of the United States takes an oath to defend the Constituion, not Ukrainian citizens.

The thing is, they’re not really bogged down. What it is, is now closer to an orchestrated siege - which is why safe passage was guaranteed out of the area for Zelenski for talks.

Additionally I think the NATO guarantees may have more importance to Putin than even Donbas

 

[JammyP]

Russians Rush for Dollars as Sanctions Threaten Ruble Collapse

www.bloomberg.com

Even better if you can re-post without the firewall. Bloomberg can cope without my dollar dollar dollar

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Hasn’t Turkey banned Russian forces from using the Bosporus straits after they invaded ?

That’s a pretty big deal considering it’s the only water route in and out of the Black Sea

I agree.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Paranoia in case someone tries to bump him off? Good to keep a bit of distance.

Well, Russians are very trained in Umbrella Accidents™...

 

[Prevenger17]

What should I believe then ?

Well certainly not your own posts

Zelenski is finished

Will be replaced within a week

My suspicion is Ukraine would capitulate within a few days/weeks. For all their fighting talk, a guerilla war on the eastern front is one thing, hand to hand combat in capital cities is quite another. NATO or anyone else clearly won’t provide troops on their behalf.

its a total take-over.

this will be over in a week. thankfully.

mercifully this looks like it will be over soon

Russian troops openly walking around Kiev now

Zelenski looking for a way out now

Zelenski saying he is ready to surrender

Phew

They are giving the Ukrainians the opportunity to see reason

 

[CharliePotato]

Noting there were some uninhabited rocks that were perfect for a whaling station, we decided to colonise it. Apart from that brief period in 1982 there have never been any Argentinian settlements on the islands. There was a small set to between some French and British forces in the 19th century over the islands, but I think it would be a real stretch to argue that their claim is in anyway stronger than a country who have had continuous settlement there for 200 years.

Basically, if you believe in the concept of self-determination, the Falklands are British. Now, whether they should be is another question. But international law doesn't work on "What i think should happen"

If you believe that we have the right to take some lane halfway across the world from us then fair enough.

 

[Martin Alvito]

They're less conversations and more one-way ramblings and commands. He'll be worried about his safety because of how the war is going on all fronts.

That often happens to dictators over time. While we're talking films, The Last King of Scotland touches on this problem.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Even better if you can re-post without the firewall. Bloomberg can cope without my dollar dollar dollar

Behind the firewall for me too, this gives some of it though

 

[Tin-Tin]

 

[PhilM]

If you believe that we have the right to take some lane halfway across the world from us then fair enough.

That doesn't make sense. The right for a country (Argentina) to invade sovereign territory or the right for said sovereign territory to ask to defend itself?

The Falklands was not Argentinian territory. The Falklands wanted it back. It's a bit like Ukraine isn't Russian territory, so they want it back.