Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Prevenger17]

Or can we draw the conclusion that we're having the covid deaths instead of the flu deaths?

Moomin could be right, flu isn't getting transmitted due to social distancing measures, so deaths from flu are down. But really, we can't draw any conclusions, because we're not scientists or epidemiologists. What we can say is that excess mortality in the UK is something in the region of 70,000+ since March and is expected to rise considerably over the coming months. You've wanted this to be just a direct replacement for quite a while now:

It's just all a load of tosh, though.

Apparently the flu numbers just happen to be completely down this year compared to last December... wonder why that is

But I'm afraid it isn't. Even if it has replaced flu deaths, it has far exceeded them and doesn't look like stopping soon. It's far more widespread, it's far more lethal and there's no vaccine in wide distribution yet. We're in lockdown because of governmental incompetence and a persistent lack of recognition of the danger by large sections of the public, not because of an overreaction.

 

[Toast]

Is anyone seeing any difference in the amount of people out and about ?

Roads were empty in March and seems to be business as usual today ?

 

[Blue 1]

Is anyone seeing any difference in the amount of people out and about ?

Roads were empty in March and seems to be business as usual today ?

Don't the rules come in at midnight tonight?

 

[BlueToff]

Moomin could be right, flu isn't getting transmitted due to social distancing measures, so deaths from flu are down. But really, we can't draw any conclusions, because we're not scientists or epidemiologists. What we can say is that excess mortality in the UK is something in the region of 70,000+ since March and is expected to rise considerably over the coming months. You've wanted this to be just a direct replacement for quite a while now:


But I'm afraid it isn't. Even if it has replaced flu deaths, it has far exceeded them and doesn't look like stopping soon. It's far more widespread, it's far more lethal and there's no vaccine in wide distribution yet. We're in lockdown because of governmental incompetence and a persistent lack of recognition of the danger by large sections of the public, not because of an overreaction.

Erm, I think the second part of my post you quote was from a few weeks back, when I was on about death figures from October/November 2020 and 2019 being surprisingly similar, and that the jump in deaths which was startling was between the same time in 2018 and then 2019. Suggesting that perhaps in Oct/Nov 2019, there was COVID present in the UK...

I'm not saying it isn't more severe than the flu.

Putting it bluntly, though, people who might have got the flu this year and died, are instead getting covid and dying.

That's a big chunk of people. However, it doesn't make it any better or mean we shouldn't currently be doing what we're doing.

 

[BlueToff]

Is anyone seeing any difference in the amount of people out and about ?

Roads were empty in March and seems to be business as usual today ?

Depends where you are.

For some reason the garden centre near mine is open, albeit car park near enough empty, but the roads were dead quiet - like they were when I left work at 4:30 yesterday.

I haven't been into town though.

 

[Prevenger17]

That's a big chunk of people. However, it doesn't make it any better or mean we shouldn't currently be doing what we're doing.

Then why do you keep bringing it up? Yes it's a big chunk, but there is also an even much bigger additional chunk of people dying from Covid who would otherwise be alive.

 

[BlueToff]

Then why do you keep bringing it up? Yes it's a big chunk, but there is also an even much bigger additional chunk of people dying from Covid who would otherwise be alive.

I haven't kept bringing it up. I saw the usual chat on here about 'it's just the flu' and while I fully agree with the point that poster made, I just tried to find some actual reliable data and was surprised by it. Moomins has explained it. You've then quoted something I wrote weeks ago (which btw actually makes sense).

I don't disagree with you, they haven't done enough.

 

[Goat]

Moomin could be right, flu isn't getting transmitted due to social distancing measures, so deaths from flu are down. But really, we can't draw any conclusions, because we're not scientists or epidemiologists. What we can say is that excess mortality in the UK is something in the region of 70,000+ since March and is expected to rise considerably over the coming months. You've wanted this to be just a direct replacement for quite a while now:


But I'm afraid it isn't. Even if it has replaced flu deaths, it has far exceeded them and doesn't look like stopping soon. It's far more widespread, it's far more lethal and there's no vaccine in wide distribution yet. We're in lockdown because of governmental incompetence and a persistent lack of recognition of the danger by large sections of the public, not because of an overreaction.

And its "only" 70k excess deaths due to 2 previous lockdowns, granted the first 1 was the only true lockdown we have had, but imagine if we hadn't?

Given the numbers pre-lockdown and the current numbers.

 

[Lee Smith]

Covid in England: Premier League sees number of positive tests double

The Premier League says 40 players and club staff have tested positive for coronavirus over the past week - more than double the previous weekly high.

www.bbc.co.uk

Here..... we..... go!

 

[Prevenger17]

I haven't kept bringing it up.

Mate, we can see your past posts. Your constant need to underplay this as a slightly more deadly flu leaks out of almost every single post you make in this thread. Well unfortunately it's not, and you're going to have to accept it at some point. This is only a fraction of it btw:

The world has to go on. Or we'd be stopping it for every cold and flu going from now until the rest of time.

It isn't going anywhere but it does little damage to the vast majority of people. We've shut down the world for a bad flu.

Any person can get ill, but using flu as an example, are the rates of flu more in older people than they are in younger ages? So could this just be like that? I don't know, just thinking out loud, so to speak!

I bet looking at flu death stats would show that they were higher too (because this could easily have been put down as flu deaths given they didn't know of it - well, the people recording the cause of deaths won't have done, anyway).

I'm sure someone smarter than me on this will be able to see if the Flu deaths in late 2019/early 2020 were up on the year before?

Apparently the flu numbers just happen to be completely down this year compared to last December... wonder why that is

We're currently in the middle of flu season. There are more free beds right now - not counting Nightingale hospitals - than there were this time last year. This time last year, when we supposedly had one of the worst flu seasons we've had, which was clearly down to covid being present here this time last year and we just had no idea.

Just seems that we may end up with around the same number of deaths at the end of this year (or more broadly in this winter season October - March time?) that we would have done anyway from flu if covid wasn't around

But if there's supposedly a 90 per cent (not verified so can't be certain until such time that it is, which will be further down the line) drop off in reported influenza cases, then that's going to make up a large proportion of deaths.

Unfortunately, it'll probably be those people that were most at risk from dying from the flu this winter that will end up dying of covid.

And deaths from illnesses such as fule and pneumonia ('common' killers in the winter in UK in vulnerable groups who are at risk of covid) are down (so far, obviously).

Before you jump down my throat, I am not at all suggesting that this lessens covid or makes it 'like flu' etc. It's clearly much more infectious, much more deadly if someone gets it badly. And, there has been no vaccine until now.

My point is, there will be a number - we can't say for sure whether big or small - of people that have died due to COVID that would have passed this year of flu or pneumonia. We're not just getting lucky that we're having fewer flu or pneumonia cases. It's probably a case of COVID taking away from the flu and pneumonia numbers - though I fully take on board we will have to wait until January when the statistics are usually published to tell for certain.

Okay... so the flu has just gone?

Just would have expected to see some green on those graphs...

 

[navidson]

Covid in England: Premier League sees number of positive tests double

The Premier League says 40 players and club staff have tested positive for coronavirus over the past week - more than double the previous weekly high.

www.bbc.co.uk

Here..... we..... go!

Kyle Walker and his 39 bessies

 

[davek]

Forget vaccines for a second; this has always been about attitude and behaviour and the government's willingness to do the right thing to get on top of the pandemic.

I mentioned the other day the fantasticly successful record of those in SE Asia on the covid19 virus, here's a piece on Vietnam.

When Will Britain’s Politicians Have the Guts to Take Lessons From Asia? | Aaron Bastani

Vietnam - a country with almost 100 million people, a huge land border with China and only a third of the wealth of Bulgaria - has lost just 35 lives to Covid-19 while also seeing its economy grow last year, notes Aaron Bastani. Why is the UK failing to learn from Asia's success stories?

novaramedia.com

 

[Prevenger17]

And its "only" 70k excess deaths due to 2 previous lockdowns, granted the first 1 was the only true lockdown we have had, but imagine if we hadn't?

Given the numbers pre-lockdown and the current numbers

I don't understand people who can just look at the current numbers, in their country and around the world, and not find them staggering. And to think how much worse it could have been

 

[Charro]

I haven’t had a cold or the flu all year.

I always get one or the other when summer and winter starts to hit and the weather changes.

Fully put that down to not being in the office every day and not riding public transport.

Whilst social distancing is about and various forms of lockdowns, numbers of every illness will decrease. It’s quite obvious tbh.

 

[BlueToff]

Mate, we can see your past posts. Your constant need to underplay this as a slightly more deadly flu leaks out of almost every single post you make in this thread. Well unfortunately it's not, and you're going to have to accept it at some point. This is only a fraction of it btw:

I'm happy to admit that I've changed my thinking. You can go back and try and vault me all you want. This is a forum for discussion.

I know full well that this is serious. I've lost a family member from it. Lost a job through it. My best mate lost his granddad to it.

I don't think this should be underplayed. I do however think it's easy to also ignore all perspective and there should be a balance.

If you don't want to see my posts, ignore me.