Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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Reports suggesting numbers were down by around 90 per cent 10 days ago.
Not sure how accurate that is, just quick search and remember hearing it on the radio last week.
Could be a variety of reasons but it's safe to assume that a fair chunk of the same people that would have been hospitalised with flu this year are the ones who will actually be hospitalised with COVID instead.
SiEdmo
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ive not been on much over the past 6 months due to just having me 2nd kid,
ive literally just come here wanting see what his stance was on all this after being reminded of his nonsense in the gbamin thread, thinking, "i bet hes one of 'them'" and low and behold
law unto himself
SiEdmo
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there was a report done a while back relating to the southern hemisphere as their flu season was 6 months back, it was dramatically reduced (almost gone) due to the measures in place for covid, which makes total sense seeing as covid is supposed to be more contagious than seasonal flu anyway (base R-naught of seasonal flu is 1.2 compared to 2.2-2.5 for covid (apparently))
Yeah and there's been more uptake this year with the flu jab here.
By the end of all this - whenever that is - there will not be much difference in excess death figures.
That may be grim, and it may sound callous, but it'll likely be true. Not saying we shouldn't have measures in place to protect people or that we shouldn't be rolling the vaccine out etc.
The impact on more people's lives that continued measures are having will have more of a devastating impact, unless countries and governments come up with a completely new way of boosting economies (we can but hope!)
SiEdmo
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im not sure if i agree regarding the excess death figures, especially if you add in how covid has impacted treatment for other issues (cancer, mental health services to name but 2 where treatment is often the diff between life and death)
think you are blob on regarding the impact to people going forward due to the measures
Fair enough, probably badly phrased from me. Just seems that we may end up with around the same number of deaths at the end of this year (or more broadly in this winter season October - March time?) that we would have done anyway from flu if covid wasn't around. Given the additional measures etc and more uptake on the flu jab. Excess deaths was the wrong term.
Yeah, we just need the vaccine to be rolled out but all this 'new strain' stuff to me is plain and simple scare tactics. While I don't think they're lying about it, it's just clearly being used as an excuse, because our government can't accept responsibility for their mistakes every step of the way.
However, it does to me also set a worrying trend that I think we'll keep seeing over the next 6 months, even with the vaccines getting rolled out. There'll always just be 'something' stopping that full return to normality, and enough people will be scared that they'll go along with it.
I won't get the vaccine - and this is at a hopeful estimate - until July, at the very earliest. It's more likely to be September. It'll be the same for everybody around my age (25) and health (no underlying conditions).
There is no chance we shouldn't be back being able to do stuff way before July, but I'm pretty sure governments will keep finding a way to push it back. It's not a power thing, or a conspiracy thing, for me. I just think they've backed themselves into a corner, and we're seeing that across Europe.
Be interesting to see what happens in Australia and New Zealand in 3-4 months time when they enter their winter.
Because I can see at least a couple of potential reasons why raising the percentage of elderly patients may not be as simple a solution as you suggest and some other aspects.
1) A large number of elderly patients have mutiple medical issues and be on several medications. Having high % of them may have complicated assessment of the efficiency and particularly of adverse reactions, especially in early rounds.
2) The population of people in the older age groups willing to volunteer (or get mdeical approval to do so) might have been lower than younger ages
3) This was an untested vaccine, having large numbers of the most vulnerable take it seems like a high risk/reward situation that may well not pay off, especially for the participants
4) I have no idea, and I would be interested if you do, if there has been documented large differences in the reactions of old people versus young to previous vaccines. There has been a history of lack of gender representation in other medical trials causing problems (gender differences https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4800017/) and some diseases impact racial groups differently (eg sickle cell) but when I was more seeped in this stuff earloer in the year I don’t recall anything re age although I could have missed it/forgotten.
5) I assume medical statistical analysis is quite developed in these trials and even with relatively small data sets they can make some reasoned assumptions, at least to decent confidence intervals
6) The vaccine has not yet been approved and Phase 3 results have not been released as far as I am aware so declarative statements such as “the Oxford vaccine is not what we need” seem premature at best.
But I have no medical training - I have no idea how big/small some of these factors would be so given a choice between you, me or the scientists I’m betting in the latter to know what they are talking about!
However an olive branch - show me a medical paper, or even a decent twitter thrread or scientific article, that summarizes your concerns and I promise to read it and get back to you with something more substantive.
Yeah see my other post. Didn't mean excess deaths - was the wrong term.
But if there's supposedly a 90 per cent (not verified so can't be certain until such time that it is, which will be further down the line) drop off in reported influenza cases, then that's going to make up a large proportion of deaths. Unfortunately, it'll probably be those people that were most at risk from dying from the flu this winter that will end up dying of covid. There's not really a nicer way to put it. All we can do is hope the measures start working again and the vaccine gets out quickly.
Read it on a few sites a matter of days away.
Possible roll out 1st week in January.
Cant come soon enough.
SiEdmo
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i think every single word that comes out of the governments mouth at the min is simply drivel to put the blame back onto people or to get them out of the hole they have dug themselves into (or out of the corner they have backed themselves into to use your chosen phrase haha)
it will likely be around forever, and probably be like the flu where we have a season where it shows its face then dies off again, think we are starting to see a bit of that with the up and down we are seeing currently, must be on about wave 4 by now
i bet they may even group it in with flu and give it a new name as a collection of illnesses, like the common cold now, thats a number of different viruses grouped into one 'illness' (rhinovirus, human coronavirus (not this one), orthopneumovirus) according to wikipedia "In total, more than 200 viral types are associated with colds"
bignev23
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A New York Times article from September https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/opinion/covid-vaccine-coronavirus.html
Hardly convincing.
Hardly convincing.
The binman chronicles
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She may say that but what about all the other shoppers she beat half to death to get the food out of their trollies?
This government's way has always been to do things at the last moment so January 1st.
Tbh though this might actually be lockdown number 2, the last one was so ambiguous it didn't really count. Well least not around here anyhow.
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