Whatever each of us think of the whole saga, nobody knows with certainty where the story goes next. Those that claim to know are deluded.
What can be guaranteed is that there will be twists and turns leading to significant unintended consequences, that nobody has even thought of. You don’t change the rules of the game, which have evolved over 50 years in response to changing world circumstances and end up with certainty.
Business will work out how to carry on doing what it does most efficiently, caring not a jot about Brexitland. If it is to their benefit to base and grow their business here, as opposed to the EU or elsewhere, they will. If they think the new rules create hassle, barriers and cost they can eliminate by going elsewhere, that’s what they will do.
As with all the tax lawyers who have created their own complex avoidance industry, there will be an army of advisors created to exploit the loopholes, gaps and unintended opportunities the changed circumstances present. They can usually run rings round governments.
We could possibly, have unknowingly created the conditions where the UK will prosper mightily in the future, or there again, perhaps not.
What the government can’t possibly know is how all the remaining players in the global game react.
We are now all pawns in that game. The risks to our interests must be greater, because of the unknowns, uncertainties and the fact we have chosen to go it alone, disrespecting our nearest and natural allies in the process.
