Current Affairs Ukraine

[BigMick]

Appropriate that the Palestine Press Agency reports that three leaders of Hamas, Moussa Abu Marzouk, Husam Badran, and Fathi 'cut off their heads' Hamad have arrived in Moscow today for talks with Lavrov and other Foreign Ministry officials.

Birds of a feather.

 

[stipe]

Gonna be interesting what gonna happen on May 9 (Victory Day), i seen reports that Putin could declare war (officially) that would enable full scale mobilization.

TBF though a lot of the reasons you cite why the EU might have stopped paying attention to this are reasons why they probably won’t - the war is the cause of those problems, as well as being a clear threat to the EU itself.

If it looks like Trump gets back in as well then they’ll probably go down the pan-EU armed force too (finally). If it lasts long enough it might do more integration than decades of meetings, summits, rows and referenda ever did, including us rejoining.

I think this war weakened EU, not only cutting Russian resources gonna weaken major European economies, (prices of everything from electricity to food already are up wildly), but it also shook up its credibility.

You could see clear internal divide between Eastern countries like Poland and Baltics who got very close to America, and someone like France who wants strong independent European policy and to diminish American influence in Europe

And of course most importantly reluctant giant, the Germany, hunted by the ghosts from the past, not sure how should they react, very averse of military solution.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Appropriate that the Palestine Press Agency reports that three leaders of Hamas, Moussa Abu Marzouk, Husam Badran, and Fathi 'cut off their heads' Hamad have arrived in Moscow today for talks with Lavrov and other Foreign Ministry officials.

Birds of a feather.

Not really, the Palestinians are defending their occupied country....Russia are occupying Ukraine.

 

[peteblue]

Suppose it depends on what you consider winning.

So far their entire country has been levelled, their people killed.

Sure they have "stopped" the Russian push, to a degree, but at great cost to human life.

So what do you consider winning?

You are right in that their country has been destroyed, however unless France and Germany twist their arms up their backs to give Russia even more land then I think they will force Russia out. I think Ukrainians will regard that as winning. Ukraine didn’t start or wanted war, the only one who did was Putin and if Russia gets pushed out, with the level of Russian military destruction seen, then the war will probably end with Putins death. As you say, there are no real winners in war, everybody loses….

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

May 3, 6:45 pm ET​

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 2 that the Kremlin has begun to prepare mobilization processes and personnel ahead of the expected May 9 announcement and has already carried out covert mobilization.[1] Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council said that high-ranking Russian officials are trying to legitimize a prolonged war effort as the Third World War against the West, rather than the "special military operation” against Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has hitherto framed Russia’s invasion.[2] ISW has no independent confirmation of Russian preparations for mobilization.

A significant Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed Russian forces roughly 40 km east of Kharkiv City.[3] A senior American defense official reported the Ukrainian operation, which is consistent with social media reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources that Ukrainian troops took control of Staryi Saltiv on May 2.[4] This Ukrainian counteroffensive is very unlikely to affect Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum, as the Russians have not been relying on GLOCs from Kharkiv to support their operations in Izyum but have been using routes further to the east and well beyond the most recent Ukrainian counteroffensive’s limit of advance. The Ukrainian counteroffensive may, however, unhinge the Russian positions northeast of Kharkiv and could set conditions for a broader operation to drive the Russians from most of their positions around the city. This possibility may pose a dilemma for the Russians—whether to reinforce their positions near Kharkiv to prevent such a broader Ukrainian operation or to risk losing most or all of their positions in artillery range of the city.

Russia’s long-term intentions regarding the status of Mariupol and other occupied areas seem confused. Some anecdotes from Mariupol indicate that Russia may plan to incorporate Mariupol and the surrounding environs into the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), and possibly annex the DNR to the Russian Federation. Other anecdotes suggest that Russia could directly absorb Mariupol into Rostov Oblast. These inconsistencies could simply be artifacts of reporting or confusion on the ground, but they could also indicate actual confusion about Russia’s long-term plans for governing the Ukrainian regions that Moscow’s forces currently occupy. These anecdotes clearly support the assessment that Putin has no intention of ceding occupied territories back to an independent Ukraine and is, at most, considering exactly how he intends to govern regions that Russia has illegally seized.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Right not it seems unlikely but Russia has a long and storied history of being utterly inept in the opening months of war and slowly getting their act together militarily. They could hold their gains, wait for the next presidential election and if it comes out in Russia's favor a few things could happen.

1. we continue to support ukraine: chances of happening LOL%
2. we publicly say we are supporting ukraine its just we purposely slow the supply lines to a trickle to undermine them - good possiblity.
3. we declare neutrality, you are on your own Ukraine - probably most likely to happen
4. we switch sides and align with Russia - less likely
5. we switch sides, align with Russia and pull out of NATO - least likely

If anybody thinks that options 4-5 are not plausible and "crazy talk" you have not been paying any attn to American politics. Sure they'll be initial republician pushback, just give Trump or whomever a month. Oh and Europe you might want to at least have a plan B in the works in case 5 happens, because it could really happen.

Anything is plausible. But what trumps(pardon the pun) that whole thought process is the West have been waiting for this to happen for years and now it is fallen into it's lap. Expect the West to ramp up equipment and supplies until either Ukraine is exhausted or Russia is. In either case Russia has been dealt a death knell as sanctions will hit its mark eventually and as trust(puppets like Merkle) will no longer enter the frame from any Western nation. In fact, conventionally Russia will be so weakened by the end of the year troop conscriptions won't matter for them. This isn't WW2 technology rules the roost and expect more nuclear rhetoric from Lavrov and Putin as they are quickly falling down the rabbit hole with miscalculations. Also they will be mad as hell as Sweden and Finland align with NATO. Not remotely in their thought process. They have been exposed as a corrupt paper tiger.

Ukraine should heralded by all nations to make the future safer for all of us.

American politics has no say on guerilla warfare after the war ends. Russia could and can win the short term war but will lose eventually and become a Pariah State that even the Chinese may have to step over to keep their economic machine going full tilt. Biden is done and Trump is a after thought. #4 & #5 is utter madness and will never happen as we don't see the real world the same as history suggests and the big example recently is how this conflict ultimately unfolded as the Russians would be welcomed with open arms. The hatred is now so immense Ukraine will never bow the knee.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

TBF though a lot of the reasons you cite why the EU might have stopped paying attention to this are reasons why they probably won’t - the war is the cause of those problems, as well as being a clear threat to the EU itself.

If it looks like Trump gets back in as well then they’ll probably go down the pan-EU armed force too (finally). If it lasts long enough it might do more integration than decades of meetings, summits, rows and referenda ever did, including us rejoining.

Trump will be in jail.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Putin's Blunder: The Russian Military Has Been Wrecked by Ukraine War

Not only has Russia lost a worrying number of troops in Ukraine, but officials have also indicated Russia is low on ammo as well.

www.19fortyfive.com

In reference to the above comments.

 

[tsubaki]

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

May 3, 6:45 pm ET​

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 2 that the Kremlin has begun to prepare mobilization processes and personnel ahead of the expected May 9 announcement and has already carried out covert mobilization.[1] Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council said that high-ranking Russian officials are trying to legitimize a prolonged war effort as the Third World War against the West, rather than the "special military operation” against Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has hitherto framed Russia’s invasion.[2] ISW has no independent confirmation of Russian preparations for mobilization.

A significant Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed Russian forces roughly 40 km east of Kharkiv City.[3] A senior American defense official reported the Ukrainian operation, which is consistent with social media reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources that Ukrainian troops took control of Staryi Saltiv on May 2.[4] This Ukrainian counteroffensive is very unlikely to affect Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum, as the Russians have not been relying on GLOCs from Kharkiv to support their operations in Izyum but have been using routes further to the east and well beyond the most recent Ukrainian counteroffensive’s limit of advance. The Ukrainian counteroffensive may, however, unhinge the Russian positions northeast of Kharkiv and could set conditions for a broader operation to drive the Russians from most of their positions around the city. This possibility may pose a dilemma for the Russians—whether to reinforce their positions near Kharkiv to prevent such a broader Ukrainian operation or to risk losing most or all of their positions in artillery range of the city.

Russia’s long-term intentions regarding the status of Mariupol and other occupied areas seem confused. Some anecdotes from Mariupol indicate that Russia may plan to incorporate Mariupol and the surrounding environs into the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), and possibly annex the DNR to the Russian Federation. Other anecdotes suggest that Russia could directly absorb Mariupol into Rostov Oblast. These inconsistencies could simply be artifacts of reporting or confusion on the ground, but they could also indicate actual confusion about Russia’s long-term plans for governing the Ukrainian regions that Moscow’s forces currently occupy. These anecdotes clearly support the assessment that Putin has no intention of ceding occupied territories back to an independent Ukraine and is, at most, considering exactly how he intends to govern regions that Russia has illegally seized.

on that theme (and I hope he is right):

 

[Yarrgh]

on that theme (and I hope he is right):

What in reality would be the difference between a "full mobilisation" and the current offensive that Russia are engaged in? Honest question - I don't see a big difference.

Is there any difference if Russia declares it a war over a special operation (or whatever they call it)? Is there some actual difference in this? I presume that there might be some technical but important changes.

 

[Haydn]

What in reality would be the difference between a "full mobilisation" and the current offensive that Russia are engaged in? Honest question - I don't see a big difference.

Is there any difference if Russia declares it a war over a special operation (or whatever they call it)? Is there some actual difference in this? I presume that there might be some technical but important changes.

I believe it enables conscription, so they can mobilise thousands of untrained kids to be sent to Ukraine.

 

[Goat]

What in reality would be the difference between a "full mobilisation" and the current offensive that Russia are engaged in? Honest question - I don't see a big difference.

Is there any difference if Russia declares it a war over a special operation (or whatever they call it)? Is there some actual difference in this? I presume that there might be some technical but important changes.

I believe it enables conscription, so they can mobilise thousands of untrained kids to be sent to Ukraine.

This, it basically allows them to call up reservists and send a load of cannon fodder so they dont "waste" their good troops.

 

[Yarrgh]

I believe it enables conscription, so they can mobilise thousands of untrained kids to be sent to Ukraine.

More innocent cannon fodder to fight a crazed man's lust for power.

Very depressing. Hopefully cause the Russian families to rebel. As a parent I would go to prison if it means that my son doesn't go to get killed - I am sure it is the same for many Russian parents.

 

[jaspercabbage]

Trump will be in jail.

Would be wonderful, but it will never happen.

 

[Yarrgh]

Would be wonderful, but it will never happen.

I'd back 4 years in charge over 4 minutes in jail for the orange one.