Current Affairs Ukraine

[tsubaki]

Yeah right.
Ukraine is het biggest loser no matter how you look at it. It was a corrupt, broke & inefficient state before the war. What will be left of that when the Russians are gone. A million dead, Russian territorial gains and a stash of western weaponry to last a lifetime. That's not very nurturing for a democratic culture.
Let's hope we're as willing to support the reconstruction as much as the warfare.

Im a bit disappointed our elected leaders have abandoned the possibility of a ceasefire. Even Zelensky was open to it four weeks ago. Now 'they're going to win this war'. If the Russians actually start mobilizing, than I don't see how that will even be possible?

Of the corrupt / inefficient state? Probably not a lot - if they "win" (which even now probably includes "still being in power") then the old oligarchic / corrupt politician way will probably be gone and the division in the state between those who fought and those who didn't. I'd also expect a much more communal defence , eg: Switzerland where the majority of the population (certainly the male half) will do proper conscription and have a rifle at home.

I don't think they'll be taking that much western supplied munitions either - they'll probably take the last month of peace and the first month of the war as a lesson why a domestic arms industry is vital, so they aren't begging for obsolete crap or scraps. Obviously they might end up doing licenced production of some stuff but self-sufficiency will be the big theme.

As for the ceasefire, I am disappointed too (as I am with a lot of our leader / EU leaders response to this) but I think the fault there mainly lies in Moscow - I mean, if they even announced what their aims were / limits of what they were going to do it would be helpful, but whilst there is all this mix of threat and ambiguity (combined with uttering some fantastical whoppers at times) you can see why most of Europe is not going to give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

[PhilM]

Of all the countries in the world I’d not want to antagonise due an almost unbelievable tendency to do whatever they like, Israel is right at the top.

 

[Goat]

They wont and they wont.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Russia will never control Ukraine.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Of all the countries in the world I’d not want to antagonise due an almost unbelievable tendency to do whatever they like, Israel is right at the top.

Yup they’ve hacked the Israelis right off. I reckon there’ll be shipments of Spike NLOS and Harpy drones winging their way from Tel Aviv to the Ukes right about now.

Just means more deep-fried crispy Russians.

Nice one Lavrov lad

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Yup they’ve hacked the Israelis right off. I reckon there’ll be shipments of Spike NLOS and Harpy drones winging their way from Tel Aviv to the Ukes right about now.

Just means more deep-fried crispy Russians.

Nice one Lavrov lad

Methinks Lavrov has really miscalculated his delivery.

 

[wm02]

Interesting article the other day about the critical flaw with Russian tanks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/30/russian-tank-turret-blast-jack-in-the-box/

 

[tsubaki]

Interesting article the other day about the critical flaw with Russian tanks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/30/russian-tank-turret-blast-jack-in-the-box/

TBF it isn't a "critical flaw" so much as it is a design decision. The Red Army always expected to lose loads of tanks in a conflict with the West; the intent was to have so many of them to begin with that such losses wouldn't matter (which having a crew of three rather than four or five allowed them to do).

 

[Lobster Johnson]

TBF it isn't a "critical flaw" so much as it is a design decision. The Red Army always expected to lose loads of tanks in a conflict with the West; the intent was to have so many of them to begin with that such losses wouldn't matter (which having a crew of three rather than four or five allowed them to do).

The flaw in that plan being that if your logistics is inept and corrupt you rather negate that advantage.

Also, I think we're seeing that the era of the tank is over thanks to advances in drones and hand held anti tank weapons.

 

[PhilM]

Yup they’ve hacked the Israelis right off. I reckon there’ll be shipments of Spike NLOS and Harpy drones winging their way from Tel Aviv to the Ukes right about now.

Just means more deep-fried crispy Russians.

Nice one Lavrov lad

Aman and Mossad will be doing their sneaky beaky stuff as I type.

 

[wm02]

TBF it isn't a "critical flaw" so much as it is a design decision. The Red Army always expected to lose loads of tanks in a conflict with the West; the intent was to have so many of them to begin with that such losses wouldn't matter (which having a crew of three rather than four or five allowed them to do).

I get what you’re saying. Just reminded me of the Soviet way of thinking w/re: to the graphite-moderated nuclear reactors as well.
Risky design

 

[tsubaki]

The flaw in that plan being that if your logistics is inept and corrupt you rather negate that advantage.

Also, I think we're seeing that the era of the tank is over thanks to advances in drones and hand held anti tank weapons.

If the logistics is inept and corrupt, yes. I am not sure that it was so much (we seem to have compared it against our ideal logistics, forgetting what the Soviets were like and what we would probably be like in a proper war too).

As for the era of the tank is over, that has been said so often (IIRC even Guderian had to refute an argument along those lines in Achtung - Panzer!) that I think we'll need to see a lot more evidence before that is proven.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

If the logistics is inept and corrupt, yes. I am not sure that it was so much (we seem to have compared it against our ideal logistics, forgetting what the Soviets were like and what we would probably be like in a proper war too).

As for the era of the tank is over, that has been said so often (IIRC even Guderian had to refute an argument along those lines in Achtung - Panzer!) that I think we'll need to see a lot more evidence before that is proven.

The measure of logistics im using is that they are able to support their units in theatre sufficiently to give them a fighting chance at achieving their objectives.

Russia attempted a blitzkrieg style assault to take Kiev and the Eastern and Southern cities within days. They lost so much armour in the first two weeks they were forced to abandon their main assault to regroup.

That alone would prove that they are unable to repair or resupply existing units or send in units of comparable quality as reinforcements. That they are now merging combat degraded units and throwing them back into the line a couple of weeks later would suggest they are not as well stocked on tanks, crews or spares.

 

[peteblue]

They wont and they wont.

Once again, you will lose your bet……

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

So Russia are going to obliterate us into oblivion.