Current Affairs Ukraine

[Cork Evertonian]

I'm surprised that the Russian Ambassador to Ireland, hasn't been kicked out of this country yet. It's time to shut down the Russian embassy in Dublin, and send all Russian diplomats, back home to their homophobic/warmongering dump of a country.

 

[peteblue]

I'm surprised that the Russian Ambassador to Ireland, hasn't been kicked out of this country yet. It's time to shut down the Russian embassy in Dublin, and send all Russian diplomats, back home to their homophobic/warmongering dump of a country.

Indeed. The west has given these guys a free ride, while they stride around the globe pretending to be this first world power. They are not. They have nuclear bombs but know that if used then Russia gets wiped off the face of the planet. Meanwhile they have played this myth of military power yet have now been shown up to be a shambles, who are being decimated by the incredible valiance of Ukraine. Russia will never be the same, the military myth is broken, financially they will be screwed, and the west will no longer be dependent upon their main source of income.…

 

[tsubaki]

The measure of logistics im using is that they are able to support their units in theatre sufficiently to give them a fighting chance at achieving their objectives.

Russia attempted a blitzkrieg style assault to take Kiev and the Eastern and Southern cities within days. They lost so much armour in the first two weeks they were forced to abandon their main assault to regroup.

That alone would prove that they are unable to repair or resupply existing units or send in units of comparable quality as reinforcements. That they are now merging combat degraded units and throwing them back into the line a couple of weeks later would suggest they are not as well stocked on tanks, crews or spares.

TBF they didn't - if they had, it would probably have worked. Soviet (and German) tank doctrine at its best was always about concentrating maximum effort in a few key directions and then reinforcing whichever offered the best possibilities.

 

[Goat]

Once again, you will lose your bet……

Suppose it depends on what you consider winning.

So far their entire country has been levelled, their people killed.

Sure they have "stopped" the Russian push, to a degree, but at great cost to human life.

So what do you consider winning?

 

[Deleted member 48881]

TBF they didn't - if they had, it would probably have worked. Soviet (and German) tank doctrine at its best was always about concentrating maximum effort in a few key directions and then reinforcing whichever offered the best possibilities.

So they didn't and don't want to control Kyiv?

 

[lorens]

Yeah right.
Ukraine is het biggest loser no matter how you look at it. It was a corrupt, broke & inefficient state before the war. What will be left of that when the Russians are gone. A million dead, Russian territorial gains and a stash of western weaponry to last a lifetime. That's not very nurturing for a democratic culture.
Let's hope we're as willing to support the reconstruction as much as the warfare.

Im a bit disappointed our elected leaders have abandoned the possibility of a ceasefire. Even Zelensky was open to it four weeks ago. Now 'they're going to win this war'. If the Russians actually start mobilizing, than I don't see how that will even be possible?

There is no point in a ceasefire when the war starts again in 2 years. Russia is not a democratic country and any agreement signed with them will sooner or later be violated.

Suppose it depends on what you consider winning.

So far their entire country has been levelled, their people killed.

Sure they have "stopped" the Russian push, to a degree, but at great cost to human life.

So what do you consider winning?

we just have no other choice right now.

this war will last for more than one or two months.

 

[tsubaki]

So they didn't and don't want to control Kyiv?

It’s still hard to say what they want. It’s possible they thought they could just overawe the Ukrainians, but then again it’s also possible that they are intending for this to be a long drawn out affair (with all that entails for the world) as well.

 

[Neiler]

I'm surprised that the Russian Ambassador to Ireland, hasn't been kicked out of this country yet. It's time to shut down the Russian embassy in Dublin, and send all Russian diplomats, back home to their homophobic/warmongering dump of a country.

Im not, it’s not the clever play, no country is going to cut diplomatic ties with Russia, eventually there will be a ceasefire, peace talks and ultimately an agreement, all this will be done through diplomacy.

That’s before you talk about the Irish citizens in Russia and the impact of a tit for tat cutting of diplomatic and embassy representation in Russia on them and Russian citizens here to for that matter.

Expelling Ambassadors is just showy reaction for a quick headline, besides Russian diplomats and the embassy is getting dogs abuse daily, if you expel they go home to a hero’s welcome.

 

[Dylan]

Ignore a lot of the nonsense he mentioned, but the point that only a reasonably small percentage of their arsenal being operational isn't a bad one.

I remember @john jako mentioned something similar much earlier on. Nuclear weapons degrade over time unless maintained and that costs - a lot.

Maintaining our Vanguard class submarines and SLBMs is between 3-4.5% of our annual defence budget, so you're talking a min. £1.2-1.9bn per annum.

That's for four submarines, 200ish warheads on 60ish SLBMS - what would that work out per warhead as a conservative figure? It's far from cheap.

When you look at the US spending on their nuclear arsenal including ICBMs, I was told it comes to about £10m per weapon, maybe @Dylan will know more.

If you then consider the size of the Russian economy and their defence spending versus their arsenal number, can we expect they've maintained the pile?

So yes, they do have enough weapons to cause such mass destruction, but the point is that they are likely significantly outnumbered in reliable weapons.

You can then factor in the cost of the design and building of new missiles, submarines and missiles, which again are to be costly to maintain over the life.

That alone will be something the Russians will be aware of, and perhaps says a lot about the readiness and capability of the Russian armed forces.

Sorry mate, I have no idea about how much it costs to maintain, we never cared one iota about cost. We just ordered what we needed when we needed it.

I do know, that my boat was about $2billion in 1970's money......so with inflation they'd be a pretty penny these days.

 

[Rook]

Russia will never control Ukraine.

Right not it seems unlikely but Russia has a long and storied history of being utterly inept in the opening months of war and slowly getting their act together militarily. They could hold their gains, wait for the next presidential election and if it comes out in Russia's favor a few things could happen.

1. we continue to support ukraine: chances of happening LOL%
2. we publicly say we are supporting ukraine its just we purposely slow the supply lines to a trickle to undermine them - good possiblity.
3. we declare neutrality, you are on your own Ukraine - probably most likely to happen
4. we switch sides and align with Russia - less likely
5. we switch sides, align with Russia and pull out of NATO - least likely

If anybody thinks that options 4-5 are not plausible and "crazy talk" you have not been paying any attn to American politics. Sure they'll be initial republician pushback, just give Trump or whomever a month. Oh and Europe you might want to at least have a plan B in the works in case 5 happens, because it could really happen.

 

[Goat]

Right not it seems unlikely but Russia has a long and storied history of being utterly inept in the opening months of war and slowly getting their act together militarily. They could hold their gains, wait for the next presidential election and if it comes out in Russia's favor a few things could happen.

1. we continue to support ukraine: chances of happening LOL%
2. we publicly say we are supporting ukraine its just we purposely slow the supply lines to a trickle to undermine them - good possiblity.
3. we declare neutrality, you are on your own Ukraine - probably most likely to happen
4. we switch sides and align with Russia - less likely
5. we switch sides, align with Russia and pull out of NATO - least likely

If anybody thinks that options 4-5 are not plausible and "crazy talk" you have not been paying any attn to American politics. Sure they'll be initial republician pushback, just give Trump or whomever a month. Oh and Europe you might want to at least have a plan B in the works in case 5 happens, because it could really happen.

I read something the other day that I thought was interesting.

No idea where now, might have been on here, but it basically said that the longer the war goes on, the more "bored" the West will be and at some point they will stop paying attention.

 

[Yarrgh]

H yu

I read something the other day that I thought was interesting.

No idea where now, might have been on here, but it basically said that the longer the war goes on, the more "bored" the West will be and at some point they will stop paying attention.

I agree. We have the attention span of gnats. We also have too many problems at home requiring resources and the rise in cost of living is far more immediate than somewhere most of us had no idea about until a fee months ago.

Also there is a sense of an isolationist America growing in me and I strongly suspect @Rook Is right that the US will not be in for too long a term if it can help it.

Whilst I don't think any movement on a peace deal will happen for 9th May and Russian Victory Day, I think we will see some reopening of the peace talks post Azov removal in Mauripol.

 

[tsubaki]

H yu

I agree. We have the attention span of gnats. We also have too many problems at home requiring resources and the rise in cost of living is far more immediate than somewhere most of us had no idea about until a fee months ago.

Also there is a sense of an isolationist America growing in me and I strongly suspect @Rook Is right that the US will not be in for too long a term if it can help it.

Whilst I don't think any movement on a peace deal will happen for 9th May and Russian Victory Day, I think we will see some reopening of the peace talks post Azov removal in Mauripol.

TBF though a lot of the reasons you cite why the EU might have stopped paying attention to this are reasons why they probably won’t - the war is the cause of those problems, as well as being a clear threat to the EU itself.

If it looks like Trump gets back in as well then they’ll probably go down the pan-EU armed force too (finally). If it lasts long enough it might do more integration than decades of meetings, summits, rows and referenda ever did, including us rejoining.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

TBF though a lot of the reasons you cite why the EU might have stopped paying attention to this are reasons why they probably won’t - the war is the cause of those problems, as well as a clear threat to the EU itself.

If it looks like Trump gets back in as well then they’ll probably go down the pan-EU armed force too (finally). If it lasts long enough it might do more integration than decades of meetings, summits, rows and referenda ever did, including us rejoining.

The UK rejoining a newly armed EU would make @peteblue 's head explode. Therefore, I'm all in.

 

[Yarrgh]

The UK rejoining a newly armed EU would make @peteblue 's head explode. Therefore, I'm all in.

+1.