Current Affairs Ukraine

[FrenchDarrenBent]

Once countries start talking about "secret weapons" you know they're in big trouble.

If they were in big trouble, we would be in big trouble.
Don't put too much stock in these MoD 'intelligence updates'. They're not about the war anymore but just an opinion piece these days.

A lot of hubris from our elected leaders now. Everybody's visiting Kiev, excellent photo-op for everybody involved. Some of them actively encouraging strikes on Russian territory...

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

But I was scaremongering of course

Are you still going on about this?

 

[PhilM]

If they were in big trouble, we would be in big trouble.
Don't put too much stock in these MoD 'intelligence updates'. They're not about the war anymore but just an opinion piece these days.

A lot of hubris from our elected leaders now. Everybody's visiting Kiev, excellent photo-op for everybody involved. Some of them actively encouraging strikes on Russian territory...

I get this point of view and I think you’re right to an extent, but equally making intelligence accessible to the public is a very difficult one to do well.

The public have a thirst for information and what to know the ins and outs of stuff, but the source and nature of the intelligence has to be protected.

If too much is given away, Russia will know our capabilities or perhaps that we have sources within their remit, so it comes across as ‘opinions’.

What they actually know is a lot, lot more detailed and accurate.

 

[Yarrgh]

If they were in big trouble, we would be in big trouble.
Don't put too much stock in these MoD 'intelligence updates'. They're not about the war anymore but just an opinion piece these days.

A lot of hubris from our elected leaders now. Everybody's visiting Kiev, excellent photo-op for everybody involved. Some of them actively encouraging strikes on Russian territory...

Indeed. Don't believe the hype. Observe what is actually happening.

Russia is slowly grinding out a land corridor in the east and there is rumblings in the south and Transnistra. Russia is losing men and resources. I suspect that Ukraine is also losing a lot too but it's not so highlighted in our news. Weapons to Ukraine are increasingly becoming more sophisticated and are potentially more capable and could turn the tide in Ukraine's favour.

Most western countries by reopening embassies in Kyiv are strongly indicating their faith that the north and west will be safe.

Russian rhetoric is becoming more surreal whereas western rhetoric seems consistent and more believable. Ukraine's rhetoric is correctly showing themselves in the best light possible.

 

[devogue]

 

[devogue]

 

[Yarrgh]

What the hell is going on with Russia and its shout that everyone are Nazis. Ukraine may well have some ultra right wing nationalists fighting who probably could be call fascists, but if they held a mirror up to themselves it would be even easier to find that fascism at home.

Really weird behaviour. It's like the country is cracking up mentally in front of us.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

What the hell is going on with Russia and its shout that everyone are Nazis. Ukraine may well have some ultra right wing nationalists fighting who probably could be call fascists, but if they held a mirror up to themselves it would be even easier to find that fascism at home.

Really weird behaviour. It's like the country is cracking up mentally in front of us.

The Great Patriotic War against the Nazis is kind of modern Russia's foundational myth. It's a crude propoganda attempt to draw a line between the generation that broke the Whermacht and today in the minds of people who only get their news from state sources.

 

[Yarrgh]

The Great Patriotic War against the Nazis is kind of modern Russia's foundational myth. It's a crude propoganda attempt to draw a line between the generation that broke the Whermacht and today in the minds of people who only get their news from state sources.

I completely agree but saying Hitler was Jewish and Israel support neo-nazis with a soupcon of nuclear war for all is just crazy - granted they've just invaded another country to protect Russian Ukranian citizens so their logic seems a tad askew from reality in the first place.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

 

[tsubaki]

What the hell is going on with Russia and its shout that everyone are Nazis. Ukraine may well have some ultra right wing nationalists fighting who probably could be call fascists, but if they held a mirror up to themselves it would be even easier to find that fascism at home.

Really weird behaviour. It's like the country is cracking up mentally in front of us.

TBF it’s probably more a refusal to ever admit error in a PR fight.

When Lavrov said what he said he wasn’t reading from a script (it was in a long form interview) and it didn’t have the definitive spin that has been put on it - he basically said that Hitler might have had Jewish ancestry and that some of the worst antisemites were Jewish.

The first is probably wrong and the second is hyperbole based on the trope of the self-hating Jew and various senior Nazis having links that their own laws would have considered Jewish. It was offensive but he wasn’t saying that the Jews murdered themselves in the Holocaust.

 

[Martin Alvito]

The Great Patriotic War against the Nazis is kind of modern Russia's foundational myth. It's a crude propoganda attempt to draw a line between the generation that broke the Whermacht and today in the minds of people who only get their news from state sources.

Right, it's classic "us against them" authoritarian propaganda. Create an enemy without and point the people at it, to distract them from the enemy within.

 

[FrenchDarrenBent]

Yeah right.
Ukraine is het biggest loser no matter how you look at it. It was a corrupt, broke & inefficient state before the war. What will be left of that when the Russians are gone. A million dead, Russian territorial gains and a stash of western weaponry to last a lifetime. That's not very nurturing for a democratic culture.
Let's hope we're as willing to support the reconstruction as much as the warfare.

Im a bit disappointed our elected leaders have abandoned the possibility of a ceasefire. Even Zelensky was open to it four weeks ago. Now 'they're going to win this war'. If the Russians actually start mobilizing, than I don't see how that will even be possible?

 

[devogue]

Yeah right.
Ukraine is het biggest loser no matter how you look at it. It was a corrupt, broke & inefficient state before the war. What will be left of that when the Russians are gone. A million dead, Russian territorial gains and a stash of western weaponry to last a lifetime. That's not very nurturing for a democratic culture.
Let's hope we're as willing to support the reconstruction as much as the warfare.

Im a bit disappointed our elected leaders have abandoned the possibility for a ceasefire. Even Zelensky was open to it four weeks ago. Now 'they're going to win this war'. If the Russians actually start mobilizing, than I don't see how that will even be possible?

Ceasefire requires both sides to negotiate properly and I still don't believe Russia has been trying to do so in good faith. Also would Ukrainians even accept a ceasefire at this point after Bucha, Mariupol etc?

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan

May 2, 5:15 pm ET

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in Ukraine on May 2. The April 30 Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum may be continuing to disrupt Russian efforts on the Izyum axis. Russian troops on the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline and Southern Axis continued to regroup, likely in preparation for renewed offensives or to resist or reverse Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along any axes of advance and instead shelled Ukrainian positions on the frontlines.
• The April 30 Ukrainian artillery strike on Russian command headquarters near Izyum likely disrupted Russian operations on the Izyum axis and may hinder Russian offensives from Izyum for the next few days.
• Russian forces on the Southern Axis continued to regroup and reconnoiter likely in preparation for ground assaults in the direction of Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia.

Immediate items to watch

• Russian attacks from Izyum will likely be at least temporarily disrupted by the attack on Russian command post in the area.
• Russian forces will likely attempt to starve out the remaining defenders of the Azovstal Steel Plant in Mariupol.
• Russian forces may be preparing to conduct renewed offensive operations to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days.