Current Affairs Ukraine

[john jako]

I view it as a combination of over-estimating their own capabilities versus a poor evaluation of their opposition. They expected to waltz into Kyiv in days.

Once they've faced any semblance of opposition from a trained and resilient force, the standard of their military and its inept tactics have shone bright.

The sting in the tail is their nuclear arsenal, but as @john jako mentioned a while ago there's no actual doubts about how effective this would.

Clearly, any nuclear weapon could cause huge damage so it's not a case of totally dismissing them, but would a lot of them work - that's a fair question.

Their lack of training is certainly proving their downfall. This is one thing the UK and other nations do well. Without sounding to big headed, I know for a fact the UK submarine and surface fleet are outnumbered but nobody can touch us if the numbers are even due to our level of training. FOST(flag officer sea training) is admired around the world and nato units come over to learn from them.

I’ve heard stories for years about the lack of training and training structure for the Russians. They have gone quality over quantity and it’s not really paying off.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

The myth of the once famed Russian military is being well and truly banished by Ukraine's ability to not just stand but to counter-attack and decimate.

By myth, their troops have always been thought second rate, but their equipment was their selling point. Now, so much of their technology looks poor.

There'll be countries such as India who'll be looking at how they've been easily beaten by cheap ATGM and AA munitions, and this will impact on orders.

Their training, which had actually been improved, looks way below western standards. Their officer corps is being decimated and the coffers will be running dry.

This will need a big, big overhaul, and the longer is lasts the more it will cost and the harder it will be. It's horrible for Ukraine, but this is a big plus for NATO.

"Russia will have eyes on Poland and Estonia". K'in ell, they'd be boxed all over the place by NATO.

I really think he bit off more than he could chew. Touch either Poland or Estonia it will be a drubbing for him unless he is desperate to do a endgame scenario.

 

[bluerobert]

A little background on the man. His father died in prison, put there because he refused to pay federal income taxes for more than a decade. The son was indoctrinated by the father in the Austrian School of Selfishness and about a decade or so ago moved all of his operations to Puerto Rico - to escape paying Federal Income Tax.

The man knows very little of "respect".

Good to see Jeff Goldblums dad found work since the Independence Day franchise work dried up

 

[Runub]

Wonder if it has to do with the nature of their government? Intelligence services and military being unable to speak candidly about capabilities, prospects, etc.

I’m no expert but this is possible. Maybe they are all so terrified of Putin they just tell him what he wants to hear knowing that they are actually in a mess

 

[summerisle]

 

[PhilM]

Wonder if it has to do with the nature of their government? Intelligence services and military being unable to speak candidly about capabilities, prospects, etc.

Unable to speak candidly or willingly not doing so to maintain their position. I’ve said it numerous times - dictators do not have strong people around them.

 

[summerisle]

Great name, Bond film awaits.

 

[FrenchDarrenBent]

The myth of the once famed Russian military is being well and truly banished by Ukraine's ability to not just stand but to counter-attack and decimate.

By myth, their troops have always been thought second rate, but their equipment was their selling point. Now, so much of their technology looks poor.

There'll be countries such as India who'll be looking at how they've been easily beaten by cheap ATGM and AA munitions, and this will impact on orders.

Their training, which had actually been improved, looks way below western standards. Their officer corps is being decimated and the coffers will be running dry.

This will need a big, big overhaul, and the longer is lasts the more it will cost and the harder it will be. It's horrible for Ukraine, but this is a big plus for NATO.

"Russia will have eyes on Poland and Estonia". K'in ell, they'd be boxed all over the place by NATO.

I don't think we should make the same mistake the Russians made by underestimating the adversary. They'll learn from their mistakes, they'll adapt. We should be prepared. The germans managed to change from a rigid, Prussian approach and a totally destroyed economy to modern warfare & being a industrial powerhouse in 22 years... Who knows what happens.

Putin simply overplayed his hand here and nobody on the Russian side was prepared for a prolonged conflict. This shoudn't have been a 'war' and now he's destroying the country he considers a 'brotherly' nation. They're probably regrouping & preparing something.

Zelensky's giving him a way out now, he has to take it. Although bombing theatres with refugees is not a great way to start a peace process.

@Yarrgh called it correctly: after all this is over, we need to ease up on sanctions and try to bring them into our sphere of influence the way we did it with Germany. Otherwise, China will step in.

 

[peteblue]

Their lack of training is certainly proving their downfall. This is one thing the UK and other nations do well. Without sounding to big headed, I know for a fact the UK submarine and surface fleet are outnumbered but nobody can touch us if the numbers are even due to our level of training. FOST(flag officer sea training) is admired around the world and nato units come over to learn from them.

I’ve heard stories for years about the lack of training and training structure for the Russians. They have gone quality over quantity and it’s not really paying off.

I agree with your post but I assumed you meant the other way around…..

 

[john jako]

I agree with your post but I assumed you meant the other way around…..

Yes lol. Thanks Pete.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Oh and Ukraine have managed to rescue one of the Mayors who got kidnapped lol

Slava Ukraini!

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Unable to speak candidly or willingly not doing so to maintain their position. I’ve said it numerous times - dictators do not have strong people around them.

I read an article somewhere that details how the Russian military are held down by the Government. Banditry and mafia control them from within and if any senior officer is seen as outspoken, popular and foreward thinking, they end up taking a fall off a high building.

The Russian government is really scared of their own military staging a coup.

 

[davmaher]

Of course, it's "we" in the collective sense of our respective nations. I mean imagine having the conversation with someone you take in. They're grateful for the shelter you provide them, and you talk about their husband, brother, or father who has stayed behind to fight and urge you to help them too. "Sorry dear, geopolitically it serves us well for your husband to weaken Russia without us having to do too much..."

What would your solution be?

 

[Yarrgh]

cant see this happening till there's regime change there

70+ year olds don't go on forever. Especially if they've just crashed their country into the ground...

 

[PhilM]

I don't think we should make the same mistake the Russians made by underestimating the adversary. They'll learn from their mistakes, they'll adapt. We should be prepared. The germans managed to change from a rigid, Prussian approach and a totally destroyed economy to modern warfare & being a industrial powerhouse in 22 years... Who knows what happens.

Putin simply overplayed his hand here and nobody on the Russian side was prepared for a prolonged conflict. This shoudn't have been a 'war' and now he's destroying the country he considers a 'brotherly' nation. They're probably regrouping & preparing something.

Zelensky's giving him a way out now, he has to take it. Although bombing theatres with refugees is not a great way to start a peace process.

@Yarrgh called it correctly: after all this is over, we need to ease up on sanctions and try to bring them into our sphere of influence the way we did it with Germany. Otherwise, China will step in.

I agree with all of the above bar, perhaps, the potential overestimation of much they'll adapt and reform alongside how long it'll take them to do so.

That's not aimed at your assessment, but in general. The talk of the 2008 reforms and lessons from Georgia and Crimea seem to have mainly evaporated.

While I'm nowhere near an expert on it, you'd think they would need a lengthy strategic review based on the lessons of this conflict and others.

I'd be thinking: binning off conscription or at least adjust the ratio to look towards a professional army; look at length of service and aide retention.

Only with an experienced NCO and office corps in place, which can take many years, with better training will you see their combat effectiveness truly grow.

You've got to mix that all in with reviewing, adapting and cementing their combat tactics - that needs the above in place - and selection of new equipment.

A lot of their equipment/vehicles (from armour, IFV/APC to their SAM systems) has been heavily undermined, with quantity rather than quality coming to mind.

Like you say, we've really got to be careful as this war could be their raison d'etre - their push for change. But, in the short-term, they'll be bruised.

It will also require the capacity of those in power (the Kremlin) to facilitate change, which itself is in question. Will the money be available too?