Current Affairs Ukraine

[Bruce Wayne]

I completely agree.

The continent has rightly been proud of the response to the refugees fleeing the country, but I strongly suspect nearly all of those refugees have extremely good reasons to return. They have homes they've been forced to leave. Loved ones that have been left behind. If we truly care for those we're taking in then it's not enough that we give them shelter in their time of need but also come to the aid of the loved ones that are back there fighting off Putin.

 

[Ruairi77]

Russia will be fine, they'll just replace all the sanctioned stuff with their own versions! what could go wrong.

 

[roydo]

The continent has rightly been proud of the response to the refugees fleeing the country, but I strongly suspect nearly all of those refugees have extremely good reasons to return. They have homes they've been forced to leave. Loved ones that have been left behind. If we truly care for those we're taking in then it's not enough that we give them shelter in their time of need but also come to the aid of the loved ones that are back there fighting off Putin.

Normal people across Europe can give shelter and support to refugees. Not entirely sure how I can come to the aid of loved ones fighting Putin.

If "We" means the nation states, then that unfortunately strays into stuff above my pay grade.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Normal people across Europe can give shelter and support to refugees. Not entirely sure how I can come to the aid of loved ones fighting Putin.

If "We" means the nation states, then that unfortunately strays into stuff above my pay grade.

Of course, it's "we" in the collective sense of our respective nations. I mean imagine having the conversation with someone you take in. They're grateful for the shelter you provide them, and you talk about their husband, brother, or father who has stayed behind to fight and urge you to help them too. "Sorry dear, geopolitically it serves us well for your husband to weaken Russia without us having to do too much..."

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Part of me has always felt that Ukraine's resilient defence has, to some extent, been an inconvenience to the West as governments never expected them to stand.

There was definitely an initial reluctance to support Ukraine because it was believed to be a lost cause; when it became apparent they weren't, they were forced.

It's also now at NATO's advantage to support them beyond the protection of members' borders, but rather it's draining and destabilising their key opponent.

Maybe I'm being cynical, but the longer the war goes on the better it may be for NATO as it will diminish the threat from Russia for an even longer period of time.

The sanctions are now in place, so the damage is mainly done*. Therefore, the more Russia's government, military and economy is damaged, the safer they'll be.

I can't see Russia's military being ready for any other major operation for a good few years, at least.

*Understandably, the sanctions are also impacting on economies and thinking objectively the sooner they're removed the better. The point is it's for the long haul.

Perfect observation. Even at this point Putin's land grab has more than sputtered and NATO will seem much stronger to deal with. It should/will take a decade or more for Russia to rise above this they are falling into utter decadence.

 

[roydo]

Of course, it's "we" in the collective sense of our respective nations. I mean imagine having the conversation with someone you take in. They're grateful for the shelter you provide them, and you talk about their husband, brother, or father who has stayed behind to fight and urge you to help them too. "Sorry dear, geopolitically it serves us well for your husband to weaken Russia without us having to do too much..."

It sucks mate, on tons of levels. But you could turn the clock back to say Live Aid. A global response to a humanitarian disaster, but on the political level, has much changed since? So my defence mechanism is a simple one. Its the "Face in the mirror" basically.

 

[PhilM]

Perfect observation. Even at this point Putin's land grab has more than sputtered and NATO will seem much stronger to deal with. It should/will take a decade or more for Russia to rise above this they are falling into utter decadence.

The myth of the once famed Russian military is being well and truly banished by Ukraine's ability to not just stand but to counter-attack and decimate.

By myth, their troops have always been thought second rate, but their equipment was their selling point. Now, so much of their technology looks poor.

There'll be countries such as India who'll be looking at how they've been easily beaten by cheap ATGM and AA munitions, and this will impact on orders.

Their training, which had actually been improved, looks way below western standards. Their officer corps is being decimated and the coffers will be running dry.

This will need a big, big overhaul, and the longer is lasts the more it will cost and the harder it will be. It's horrible for Ukraine, but this is a big plus for NATO.

"Russia will have eyes on Poland and Estonia". K'in ell, they'd be boxed all over the place by NATO.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Totally agree with all of that. The US and NATO are happy to see Russia bleed out and the Brucey bonus is watching it happen with the weapons they’ve supplied.

Once this is over the world will be a different place. As you say Russia will not be able to fund another operation on this scale and should become a lesser threat to its neighbours.

The world will look to replace Russian gas and oil with other alternatives. It will further drive renewable energy technology with re- investment in nuclear energy in the medium term.

Western Europe will tool-up defensively with nations drastically increasing defence spending.

Also I think there will be a radical re-posturing within the Russian Military - as they have seen first-hand as their government has willingly fed them into the meat-grinder. Hopefully this will fuel a power - shift within Russia and see Putin ousted from power.

I think the deal could well end up being for the west to rebuild Ukraine in return for Russian oil and gas as there is no way Russia can pay.

 

[PhilM]

I think the deal could well end up being for the west to rebuild Ukraine in return for Russian oil and gas as there is no way Russia can pay.

I was thinking the same to be fair, however I feel there's a few stumbling blocks for either side.

The key issue here would be that it's a major concession for Putin: they wanted a sphere of influence, but with $, £ and € comes more western control.

Would they be wiling to accept that? Also, it would essentially maintain the status quo of Russian ability to influence on the lives of EU citizens through markets.

I do think in many ways it's probably the best of the the likelier options although there is a lot of ifs and buts that would need addressing first.

Another element will be how the Ukraine looks to the west after all this; they've received support, but that wasn't always the case and still not enough.

 

[Runub]

The myth of the once famed Russian military is being well and truly banished by Ukraine's ability to not just stand but to counter-attack and decimate.

By myth, their troops have always been thought second rate, but their equipment was their selling point. Now, so much of their technology looks poor.

There'll be countries such as India who'll be looking at how they've been easily beaten by cheap ATGM and AA munitions, and this will impact on orders.

Their training, which had actually been improved, looks way below western standards. Their officer corps is being decimated and the coffers will be running dry.

This will need a big, big overhaul, and the longer is lasts the more it will cost and the harder it will be. It's horrible for Ukraine, but this is a big plus for NATO.

"Russia will have eyes on Poland and Estonia". K'in ell, they'd be boxed all over the place by NATO.

I agree. It is odd that Russia embarked on this ‘adventure’ seemingly confident of success but actually look completely unprepared and amateurish, unless there is a sting in the tail?

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I was thinking the same to be fair, however I feel there's a few stumbling blocks for either side.

The key issue here would be that it's a major concession for Putin: they wanted a sphere of influence, but with $, £ and € comes more western control.

Would they be wiling to accept that? Also, it would essentially maintain the status quo of Russian ability to influence on the lives of EU citizens through markets.

I do think in many ways it's probably the best of the the likelier options although there is a lot of ifs and buts that would need addressing first.

Another element will be how the Ukraine looks to the west after all this; they've received support, but that wasn't always the case and still not enough.

I honestly don't think it will be seen like that. A crushed Russia (after an extended period of sactions) will not be a position to accept any thing other than our terms and Ukraines demands for reparations. I cannot imagine putin will be around to oversee this in anyway shape or form

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I think the deal could well end up being for the west to rebuild Ukraine in return for Russian oil and gas as there is no way Russia can pay.

I think Putin will need to be “removed” before that could happen. Be interesting to know exactly how much Russian money has been frozen and if the west could divert those funds for rebuilding.

Not sure if that’s even possible though

 

[PhilM]

I agree. It is odd that Russia embarked on this ‘adventure’ seemingly confident of success but actually look completely unprepared and amateurish, unless there is a sting in the tail?

I view it as a combination of over-estimating their own capabilities versus a poor evaluation of their opposition. They expected to waltz into Kyiv in days.

Once they've faced any semblance of opposition from a trained and resilient force, the standard of their military and its inept tactics have shone bright.

The sting in the tail is their nuclear arsenal, but as @john jako mentioned a while ago there's no actual doubts about how effective this would.

Clearly, any nuclear weapon could cause huge damage so it's not a case of totally dismissing them, but would a lot of them work - that's a fair question.

 

[wm02]

I agree. It is odd that Russia embarked on this ‘adventure’ seemingly confident of success but actually look completely unprepared and amateurish, unless there is a sting in the tail?

Wonder if it has to do with the nature of their government? Intelligence services and military being unable to speak candidly about capabilities, prospects, etc.

 

[verreauxi]

Urban combat manual

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