Current Affairs Ukraine

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Any ceasefire seems to hinge on a return of all of the eastern territory to Ukraine, including Donetsk and Lugansk, otherwise you have to ask what's in it for them, aside from the obvious end to this barbarous invasion and ensuing brutality on the Ukrainian people.

They will cede Crimea to Russia, along with security guarantees to Russians in Donetsk and Lugansk plus a Ukrainian declaration of neutrality akin to Sweden and Austria. NATO/EU membership has never been feasible.

Aside from the economic and reputational damage to Russia, I think Putin would be very happy with these terms if they materialise. That's what's hard to stomach. In the longer-term Putin's position may be weakened but senior military and security figures will shoulder the blame and consequences, not least personally, that's what they are there for. The Armed Forces may feel they have been sold a pup here, but hard to see any direct consequences for Putin's reign in the short-term. I think he'll reflect on the outcome, if it comes to pass, as a price worth paying.

It makes all of this feel even more utterly senseless. Ukraine will need to swallow a bitter pill to stop this. That is the grim reality and horror of war I guess.
Yes to all that, but if Putin thinks a deal will mean a reversal of all the sanctions, he can forget it. He has scarred the lives of a generation of Russians, and this won’t be just forgotten a few weeks after he withdraws. At least this war has given the West a wake-up call energy wise, and let’s hope Europe can wean itself off Russian gas soon, and decimate the Russian economy forever.
 
I find that staggering tbh. They're the ones being attacked by a larger neighbour, and the larger neighbour demands that they reduce their defence capabilities.
I agree in principle but its hard to dismiss out of hand if the alternative is continued shelling of a civilian population. There may be other ways of skinning that cat though, there's going to be significant build up of NATO on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania and so on.
 
Yes to all that, but if Putin thinks a deal will mean a reversal of all the sanctions, he can forget it. He has scarred the lives of a generation of Russians, and this won’t be just forgotten a few weeks after he withdraws. At least this war has given the West a wake-up call energy wise, and let’s hope Europe can wean itself off Russian gas soon, and decimate the Russian economy forever.
I believe the oil sanctions will be lifted asap. No PM is going to get reelected if they let that go on for years.
 
I agree in principle but its hard to dismiss out of hand if the alternative is continued shelling of a civilian population. There may be other ways of skinning that cat though, there's going to be significant build up of NATO on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania and so on.
I agree. They live to fight another day. Once Putin is gone (he's seventy) Russia might relax it's stance and they might yet achieve their European dream.
 
I agree in principle but its hard to dismiss out of hand if the alternative is continued shelling of a civilian population. There may be other ways of skinning that cat though, there's going to be significant build up of NATO on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania and so on.
And what exactly would stop Russia then returning in a few years once Ukraine no longer has any army and takes the rest? I'm sorry, but Russia have shown themselves to be completely untrustworthy shits.
 
And what exactly would stop Russia then returning in a few years once Ukraine no longer has any army and takes the rest? I'm sorry, but Russia have shown themselves to be completely untrustworthy shits.
I don't disagree mate, but they won't be trusted, they'll be watched heavily and any movements taken far more seriously than in the past. The world ain't gonna feel the same about Russia for some time. But ultimately, with a negotiation its often about what you least oppose rather than what you want, with these sorts of stakes even more so. Zelenskiy has been exemplary and incredibly brave, but how long could you watch your population slaughtered today over the 'maybes' of tomorrow.
 
Yes to all that, but if Putin thinks a deal will mean a reversal of all the sanctions, he can forget it. He has scarred the lives of a generation of Russians, and this won’t be just forgotten a few weeks after he withdraws. At least this war has given the West a wake-up call energy wise, and let’s hope Europe can wean itself off Russian gas soon, and decimate the Russian economy forever.
I think a reversal will be on the cards. Long run though, we do need to bolster/ implement proper anti-laundering laws and become more self-sufficient.

We also need Russia to be prosperous and a democracy like post war Germany became in order to stop the next Putin taking over and to stop this happening again.
 


The drones they are sending are pretty cool. Basically they are these really cheap, small, kamikaze drones which are laden with enough explosives to blow up a tank. A soldier can carry one easily and they have a range of six miles + they are really hard to shoot down due to the speed they travel at.
 
I don't disagree mate, but they won't be trusted, they'll be watched heavily and any movements taken far more seriously than in the past. The world ain't gonna feel the same about Russia for some time. But ultimately, with a negotiation its often about what you least oppose rather than what you want, with these sorts of stakes even more so. Zelenskiy has been exemplary and incredibly brave, but how long could you watch your population slaughtered today over the 'maybes' of tomorrow.
Well that's just it, I don't think that NATO can simply sit by and watch a country be slaughtered, or alternatively left completely defenseless in a "negotiation". I mean if we're saying that the best outcome for Ukraine is that they get rid of their army to broker a ceasefire then their only defence in future is going to come from NATO, so why not use NATO now? It's an absurd position to say that one Estonian (for instance) killed would provoke an armed response from NATO and to hell with the supposed threat of nuclear armageddon, but Putin can bomb the [Poor language removed] out of civilians in Ukraine and NATO won't intervene because of the supposed threat of nuclear armageddon. Logically that makes absolutely no sense at all. Morally it makes even less sense.
 


The drones they are sending are pretty cool. Basically they are these really cheap, small, kamikaze drones which are laden with enough explosives to blow up a tank. A soldier can carry one easily and they have a range of six miles + they are really hard to shoot down due to the speed they travel at.

This is an example of what I mean @ste d' indica . NATO are sending machines that can kill Russians, which is supposedly okay, just so long as no actual Americans do so. Do we think Putin doesn't read the BBC?
 
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