Ramble warning and why Ukraine should declare neutrality.
I'm trying to get my head around what Putin thought would happen. Its clear what he hoped would happen, which is one of two things:
1. Russian will walk in and put in a puppet regime so create his buffer zone vs the Nato nations. Super easy barely an inconvenience he assumed with the threat of nukes hanging over the soft west, but little resistance - see Crimea for his test study.
2. 2nd prize: Ukraine officially denounce NATO to end the war early leaving themselves with the buffer again, with the super easy line repeated.
In both cases he assumed the outrage would be a storm in a teacup and largely political.
But it hasn't worked that way. It cannot be lost on him that commercially Russia is melting down. His assumption that the world needs to Russia so much that it is too big to fail is where he has got it wrong. The world is more than willing to depart from Russia. What will be very interesting is whether Russians will allow themselves to depart from the world. I feel that the majority have had a long enough taste of being part of the international community and would not want to slip behind the curtain again.. and this time the disconnect would be far harsher in terms of isolation. This is easier said than done and would require a "coup" of sorts within the corridors of Russian power. I don't see a Russian springs on the cards where the people take over without military support.
I just don't think this action he has taken is "worth" the outcome he now has. In hindsight would he have done it? I doubt, but now that he is made the move, his pride won't let him retreat. He needs to get something out to remain politically relevant.
Unfortunately as much as I love seeing farmers pulling tanks and planes shot down I fear without NATO military involvement, its not enough. If Putin wants Ukraine enough he will take it. The losses on the Russia side and PR momentum this creates might make him rethink the value of this but if he runs with his tale between his legs he can kiss Ukraine goodbye as it joins NATO no doubt, and his political future.
So it will get worse before it gets better. I'm not sure NATO will advance troupes unless there is a massive genocide with civilians being slaughtered. Putin will shell a few buildings but is aware what levelling the country will mean.
So they will continue to struggle on losing the skirmishes but ultimately taking over. The West can send over military equipment all it wants but it needs people who know how to use it. I'm not sure it will be enough again without NATO countries people getting involved.
This still leaves me with where I felt the best option for the Ukraine people is: declare neutrality.
Give Putin his win. Its the only way to stop the bloodshed and maintain independence before it escalates. There will be no winners here but Putin's international standing is irrevocably damaged. Joining NATO won't solve all of Ukraine's issues and being Neutral doesn't prevent them from trading with the West. Going to war with Russia will knock Russia back and give them more than bloody nose, but for what purpose and at what cost? To prove a point that they shouldn't invade another country again? I think that point has been made by the sanctions imposed.
I'm normally one for a revenge story and would love nothing more than seeing a squadron of bombers fly over and blow those convoys and tanks to kingdom come without loss of lives to the Ukrainian civilians. But real life never works out that way and with clear heads the best course of action is one that maintains Ukraine its sovereignty and does so without being destroyed in the process.
Maybe I'll fee different tomorrow and honestly my wish is to see Russia backlash within its own political corridors as the quickest resolution. Then Ukraine win without having to compromise. As always: a GOT thread is my best source of news and updates.