Current Affairs Ukraine

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Well, I have to start off by admitting that I'm no Russia expert, so hands-up to that failing on my part. I also completely accept that Putin is some sort of a megalomaniac basket case, but I do genuinely think that Russians generally have a feeling that western Europe is a threat. This view was fuelled by the German invasion of WW2, when Russia probably suffered more casualties than all other countries put together, and maybe dating right back to Napoleon's march on Moscow. NATO to them isn't the defensive, weakish, set-up we all know it to be, but an alliance of many countries, never friends to Russia, and run by the USA, Russia's arch enemy. After WW2, Russia created a buffer of Balkan and other countries between itself and the threat of the West, and this has been worn away over time, and in many cases become part of the NATO 'threat'. Dunno if Putin is exploiting this feeling among average Russian folk, or is demented enough to believe it, but that's where I think the present problem originates, anyway.
I would suggest taking a look back on actual WW2 history. That just does not describe at all what the situation was then and what Russias experience was. Russia was an aggressor in WW2, they were fake best buddies with Hitler as they wanted to expand westward and basically wanted to divy up eastern Europe with Germany(until one of the two of them decided it was time to take everything). As soon as Germany started WW2 Russia eagerly jumped in with them and thought they were going to have a great time.

It wasnt until later that they turned traitor on eachother(probably always planned, but it was about who did it first). Germany and Russia were co-conspirators early in the war and only direct enemies later in the war.
 
As always, the shareholders at Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics & co. are the real winners here :rolleyes:





Must be like pigs in muck that Anonymous group. Not often you get a free reign to hack into a major government’s infrastructure with little chance of repercussions in your home country.
I don't get how Anonymous work. Are they spread world wide? Surely it's not impossible to find them?

Coffee and catch up time for me. Hopefully nothing too terrible.
 
The outlook for the Russian economy is “dire”, according to one analyst, as the impact of western sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s regime began to be felt.

The rouble crashed more than 40% in value in early trading on Monday, slumping from 83.7 to the US dollar to 119.

A tough day looks in store for the Central Bank of Russia which has had its assets frozen as part of the sanctions and will be limited in how much it can support the currency.

Russian rouble v USD

A chart from tradingeconomics.com showing the movement of the US dollar against the rouble. Photograph: Trading Economics
“The situation is dire for the Russian economy,” said Christopher Vecchio, senior strategist with IG Group’s DailyFX.com in New York.

“Now unable to import or export goods and services thanks to the Swift sanctions, unable to sell foreign currency reserves thanks to the [central bank] asset freeze, and a Russian economy ringfenced from the global financial system, a currency crisis has emerged for Russia. High inflation is coming, as is an immediate lurch into recession.”

Other market moves include a 5% jump in Brent crude oil and a more losses on Asian stock markets where Putin’s raising of the nuclear threat has spooked investors.
 
*nods* Overseas subsidiaries are screwed. The authorities will delight in rigorously applying existing banking laws, then conducting a fire sale of the assets. Sucks to be one of their creditors.

For perspective, this is about 1/100th the size of one of the US banking behemoths, or about 1/40th the size of Lehman when they went down. In other words, meaningful but a long way from too big to fail. If this continues, which it probably will, the ECB is going to have a long week.
I probably would not be turning up for work if they were my employer. I'd have had my cv out last week.
 
Well, whether NATO is actually a threat, or not, my limited connections to Russia indicate that the ordinary people believe it to be so. That's the phobia that Putin can exploit.
It certainly is. NATO feeds on the fear of Russia and vice versa. This escalates and look what you get...

Long term, after this is hopefully peacefully resolved, got to find a better solution than NATO.
 
The outlook for the Russian economy is “dire”, according to one analyst, as the impact of western sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s regime began to be felt.

The rouble crashed more than 40% in value in early trading on Monday, slumping from 83.7 to the US dollar to 119.

A tough day looks in store for the Central Bank of Russia which has had its assets frozen as part of the sanctions and will be limited in how much it can support the currency.

Russian rouble v USD

A chart from tradingeconomics.com showing the movement of the US dollar against the rouble. Photograph: Trading Economics
“The situation is dire for the Russian economy,” said Christopher Vecchio, senior strategist with IG Group’s DailyFX.com in New York.

“Now unable to import or export goods and services thanks to the Swift sanctions, unable to sell foreign currency reserves thanks to the [central bank] asset freeze, and a Russian economy ringfenced from the global financial system, a currency crisis has emerged for Russia. High inflation is coming, as is an immediate lurch into recession.”

Other market moves include a 5% jump in Brent crude oil and a more losses on Asian stock markets where Putin’s raising of the nuclear threat has spooked investors.
How quickly would the Russian economy return to normal if someone popped Putin and ordered the retreat of its troops?
 
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