Long thread that I found interesting. Don’t have the background/knowledge to assess its accuracy so would welcome comments of those that do.
Really interesting read that. It seems pretty evident that this 'special operation' hasn't gone anywhere near as well as anticipated, and the author's points make sense.
In terms of Russia losing or winning, its rarely clear cut and indeed possible to result in both.
You can draw parallels with Afghanistan and Iraq. From Bush's Top Gun moment on the flight deck onwards, the coalition had many wins, but in retrospect was losing from day one.
Will Russia take Kiev and Ukraine? Probably. Is that a win? Yes and no, you can sell it as such and there will be advantages for Putin in holding that ground, but the cost has already been higher than anticipated and is continuing to rise. Occupying a country the size of Ukraine with a population that hates you is a massive resource drain and installing a puppet regime will likely need continuous reinforcement.
Strategically, Putin may already be looking for some sort of 'win' he can use to extricate himself from this. But this is likely to mean concession from Ukraine so that he can sell 'we've achieved our special objective. '
