Current Affairs Ukraine

[Kev The Rat]

I think you have it all wrong economies of scale dictate that Western interests are served by Chinese goods if not the West will go elsewhere. Russia has learned this lesson with its Oil and natural resources. You have to take a bigger macroeconomic view of how XI stays in power he has to feed the masses he leads if not then I leave that to your own judgement. Putin will feel the brunt of being isolated in the next few years or at least his population will if they haven't already.

The west are the ones that have lost out in failing to trade on political grounds with the Russians, not the Russians.

The Chinese have lots of potential trading partners beyond us. They do not need us.

 

[Tipp blue]

China will certainly be doing that.

Let's not forget, the US and NATO countries don't officially even recognise Taiwan as a country and there is limited capacity to support there compared to Ukraine which is connected to several NATO countries with land borders. The likes of Macron have already troed to back away from any potential conflict. It's not a South Korea with any formal alliance to protect it.

My worries here is that China actually fancies it chances and goes for it after seeing the inability of Ukraine to be able to force Russia out even with full backing of NATO.

I don't think China would use nuclear weapons on Taiwan. Or even threaten to.

Full backing of NATO would include Aircraft and Russia would have been pushed out long ago if Ukraine had air superiority.. So Ukraine aren't getting full backing nowhere near it.
I don't think China will make a move on Tiawan, 100 mile+ crossing only a few realistic landing spots, and only 2 months of the year when the weather would be on their side, Taiwan have been building up defences for decades in preparation for a China invasion. Any attempt on Taiwan would likley cause millions of Chinese KIA it would make D-Day look a simple operation. China can't just bomb the hell out of Tiawan as most of Tiawans military equipment is stored in deep bunkers within mountains..
It's a virtually impossible invasion and China know this, anyway Tiawan serves the CCP better the way it is now with threats and drills than an actual invasion ever will. For too long the CCP have been telling the population that this would be easy and accomplished over a few days with minimal Chinese casualties and much like russia what they tell their people is the opposite of what's true.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Full backing of NATO would include Aircraft and Russia would have been pushed out long ago if Ukraine had air superiority.. So Ukraine aren't getting full backing nowhere near it.
I don't think China will make a move on Tiawan, 100 mile+ crossing only a few realistic landing spots, and only 2 months of the year when the weather would be on their side, Taiwan have been building up defences for decades in preparation for a China invasion. Any attempt on Taiwan would likley cause millions of Chinese KIA it would make D-Day look a simple operation. China can't just bomb the hell out of Tiawan as most of Tiawans military equipment is stored in deep bunkers within mountains..
It's a virtually impossible invasion and China know this, anyway Tiawan serves the CCP better the way it is now with threats and drills than an actual invasion ever will. For too long the CCP have been telling the population that this would be easy and accomplished over a few days with minimal Chinese casualties and much like russia what they tell their people is the opposite of what's true.

They’ve been giving the full backing of NATO as far as is realistic.

The existence of ICBMs prevents them going full tonto

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

BRICs has been a thing for 30 years plus mate. It isnt a new thing. Marlboro had a business plan back in the day, to get India smoking their ciggies.

Apologies, mate, I neglected to add/say developing nations, China is going all out to onboard them.
Africa is forecast to growth tenfold by 2050 by some analysts, with a greater GDP than the Europe combined. India is another behemoth. The emerging markets in many respects will shape the future, unless there is an unforseen game changing event.

 

[Tipp blue]

The west are the ones that have lost out in failing to trade on political grounds with the Russians, not the Russians.

The Chinese have lots of potential trading partners beyond us. They do not need us.

Good grief... of course China need the west, their economy is starting to really struggle, pretty much the only reason they haven't supplied Russia with weapons is because they are terrified of western sanctions that would instantly crash their economy Russia with their natural resources were in a better place to handle sanctions than China could ever be. China need the west far more than they need Russia. They are currently just using Russia for cheap oil and gas Putin is being played like a fiddle.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Apologies, mate, I neglected to add/say developing nations, China is going all out to onboard them.
Africa is forecast to growth tenfold by 2050 by some analysts, with a greater GDP than the Europe combined. India is another behemoth. The emerging markets in many respects will shape the future, unless there is an unforseen game changing event.

Apologies for going of topic momentarily but this might be of interest to some.

The World in 2050

The report sets out long-term GDP projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world over the period to 2050.

www.pwc.com

Africa 2050: Economic revolution

 

[tsubaki]

Full backing of NATO would include Aircraft and Russia would have been pushed out long ago if Ukraine had air superiority.. So Ukraine aren't getting full backing nowhere near it.
I don't think China will make a move on Tiawan, 100 mile+ crossing only a few realistic landing spots, and only 2 months of the year when the weather would be on their side, Taiwan have been building up defences for decades in preparation for a China invasion. Any attempt on Taiwan would likley cause millions of Chinese KIA it would make D-Day look a simple operation. China can't just bomb the hell out of Tiawan as most of Tiawans military equipment is stored in deep bunkers within mountains..
It's a virtually impossible invasion and China know this, anyway Tiawan serves the CCP better the way it is now with threats and drills than an actual invasion ever will. For too long the CCP have been telling the population that this would be easy and accomplished over a few days with minimal Chinese casualties and much like russia what they tell their people is the opposite of what's true.

I disagree about Taiwan, I think the window of opportunity that will come around in late 2024 (with the US election, if it is Trump vs Biden) is such a good one that they might be able to do it just by gathering forces for the invasion.

Whatever Biden did would be slated however sensible, there’d be zero chance of the US political class uniting around it during an election and the pressure on the Taiwanese government watching the chaos unsure of the support (that they would 100% need to have any chance) would be immense.

 

[Tipp blue]

They’ve been giving the full backing of NATO as far as is realistic.

The existence of ICBMs prevents them going full tonto

They really haven't... HIMARS was once a red line.. Tanks was the next red line Patriot air defence was a red line.. NATO are moving slowly towards full backing, Aircraft will be next and once Ukraine can give ground forces full backing its game over, and a negotiated peace will happen with Rusdia getting Crimia and other parts of Ukraine they've occupied since 2015, the rest of Ukraine will Join NATO.

 

[Tipp blue]

I disagree about Taiwan, I think the window of opportunity that will come around in late 2024 (with the US election, if it is Trump vs Biden) is such a good one that they might be able to do it just by gathering forces for the invasion.

Whatever Biden did would be slated however sensible, there’d be zero chance of the US political class uniting around it during an election and the pressure on the Taiwanese government watching the chaos unsure of the support (that they would 100% need to have any chance) would be immense.

China don't have anywhere enough naval strength at the moment. XI has said he wants to be ready for 2027 which is just before the next presidential "elections" in china when the Taiwan issue usually peaks, like I said more important to the Xi and his CCP as it is.
In any case the mid term elections in Taiwan saw pro Chinese parties elected, there's a chance that these get into power in the next elections and they want closer ties to China it might never come to invasion.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Agreed and this is not going to help the Ukes cause in any way

They are doing this because they have absolutely no other cards left to play .

There is no way Russia will ever surrender any parts of the newly absorbed territories on the back of a few drones.

Absolute own goal from NATO

Your man made this ffs, have some dignity

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

The west are the ones that have lost out in failing to trade on political grounds with the Russians, not the Russians.

The Chinese have lots of potential trading partners beyond us. They do not need us.

In the short term I agree. But in the near future Russia will see the error of their ways. Nobody trades with a partner that executes genocide of a neighbours citizens. Abhorrent.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I don’t know what point you’re trying to make?

Is any of this going to force Russia to surrender Ukrainian territory that it stole?

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

If escalation is the name of the game, these people are doing a very good job of it.

It’s called fighting back against your raping, murdering oppressors, Kev.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

You think Russia has no other means of hitting Odessa? Think again.

You sound proud of the fact

 

[Kev The Rat]

It’s called fighting back against your raping, murdering oppressors, Kev.

Thats not fighting back that is aggravating - there is a difference.

They aren’t capable of meaningful results so in their desperation they resort to acts which simply entrench/harden the Russian response and not much else