Current Affairs Ukraine

[Lobster Johnson]

we've been through this. theres no comparison between the two.

Nop Kev, you shifted the goalposts. Then decided to ignore any follow up to "it doesn't count"

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Are the propaganda fans to blame?

 

[tsubaki]

I think China has pause at the moment as they have economic internal issues not revealed to their masses. Low birth rate is just the tip of the iceberg. Good news is China needs the West for their commerce so a move on Taiwan remains possible but not realistic. I think they have assessed Russia hasn't fared well up to this point with Ukraine and are needing munitions from highly questionable sources.

That “China needs the West” thing grows less valid the more we decouple from them and they are able to direct production elsewhere.

I think it’s a fallacy to think they’d not do anything because of it, there are probably an awful lot of things they’d do (including invading Taiwan) that they would think they’d be able to get away with in the medium term.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

That “China needs the West” thing grows less valid the more we decouple from them and they are able to direct production elsewhere.

I think it’s a fallacy to think they’d not do anything because of it, there are probably an awful lot of things they’d do (including invading Taiwan) that they would think they’d be able to get away with in the medium term.

I think you are mistaken. We will see.

 

[larrygobfiend]

That “China needs the West” thing grows less valid the more we decouple from them and they are able to direct production elsewhere.

I think it’s a fallacy to think they’d not do anything because of it, there are probably an awful lot of things they’d do (including invading Taiwan) that they would think they’d be able to get away with in the medium term.

Who buys the stuff that China manufacturers, mate?

They 100% need the West.

 

[tsubaki]

Who buys the stuff that China manufacturers, mate?

They 100% need the West.

… and if we are buying less from them, they need us less.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

… and if we are buying less from them, they need us less.

Not necessarily. They understand now the competition from Vietnam and India could cause chaos to their internal economy.

 

[roydo]

… and if we are buying less from them, they need us less.

They MAKE stuff for Western companies. Tons of the stuff.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Who buys the stuff that China manufacturers, mate?

They 100% need the West.

Part of China's strategy will be to conyinue grow their domestic consumption of goods and to grow trade/consumption with BRICS. Its a solid plan if the West do not act to build relationships and trade with the developing nations that China is courting.

 

[tsubaki]

They MAKE stuff for Western companies. Tons of the stuff.

They do, and the more that trade lessens the less the threat is of cutting it off.

Besides, I find it really strange that anyone can look at what China has been doing in the last five or ten years and think that the fear of losing access to Western markets is any kind of a serious deterrent. They'd suffer if it happened, probably quite significantly for a time, but it probably would not dissuade them from doing anything they really wanted to do (like seize Taiwan).

 

[roydo]

Part of China's strategy will be to conyinue grow their domestic consumption of goods and to grow trade/consumption with BRICS. Its a solid plan if the West do not act to build relationships and trade with the developing nations that China is courting.

BRICs has been a thing for 30 years plus mate. It isnt a new thing. Marlboro had a business plan back in the day, to get India smoking their ciggies.

 

[roydo]

They do, and the more that trade lessens the less the threat is of cutting it off.

Besides, I find it really strange that anyone can look at what China has been doing in the last five or ten years and think that the fear of losing access to Western markets is any kind of a serious deterrent. They'd suffer if it happened, probably quite significantly for a time, but it probably would not dissuade them from doing anything they really wanted to do (like seize Taiwan).

They have been "doing it" for decades mate. Its a mutually agreeable arrangement, trade wise.

 

[tsubaki]

They have been "doing it" for decades mate. Its a mutually agreeable arrangement, trade wise.

The point is that the mutual aspect of it is far less certain now. There are very good arguments here for building up our own industrial base - which harms them, as does reducing non-essential consumption and adopting more environmentally sound policies (so reducing long distance transportation and building things locally).

They on the other hand have probably looked at the last twenty-odd years of neoliberal interventions (direct and via "colour revolutions" / internet enabled activism) and think they may as well try and use this heaven-sent opportunity to put that out of their minds for a couple of decades whilst the US is so divided, and whilst there are favourable geopolitical circumstances (like with Saudi and the UAE, who even without all the MBS issues and the security situation will be massively impacted by the reductions in consumption here (never mind the US) as the result of environmentally sound policies).

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

They do, and the more that trade lessens the less the threat is of cutting it off.

Besides, I find it really strange that anyone can look at what China has been doing in the last five or ten years and think that the fear of losing access to Western markets is any kind of a serious deterrent. They'd suffer if it happened, probably quite significantly for a time, but it probably would not dissuade them from doing anything they really wanted to do (like seize Taiwan).

I think you have it all wrong economies of scale dictate that Western interests are served by Chinese goods if not the West will go elsewhere. Russia has learned this lesson with its Oil and natural resources. You have to take a bigger macroeconomic view of how XI stays in power he has to feed the masses he leads if not then I leave that to your own judgement. Putin will feel the brunt of being isolated in the next few years or at least his population will if they haven't already.

 

[tsubaki]

I think you have it all wrong economies of scale dictate that Western interests are served by Chinese goods if not the West will go elsewhere. Russia has learned this lesson with its Oil and natural resources. You have to take a bigger macroeconomic view of how XI stays in power he has to feed the masses he leads if not then I leave that to your own judgement. Putin will feel the brunt of being isolated in the next few years or at least his population will if they haven't already.

My point is that the West is increasingly going elsewhere, often for very legitimate interests (indeed in terms of helping fight global heating these can be in China's interests as well). As you say, Xi is somewhat reliant on that economic juggernaut keeping going so making that situation worse can be seen as a real threat.

In a more sane world we'd long since past have had a genuine discussion amongst all states of the world where we would agree that the costs and the pain of the transition we have to take would be equally shared out, but obviously we don't live on that world.