Current situation around Robotyne. The Ru 1430 regiment was effectively wiped out yesterday in a full scale tank engagement
Current Affairs Ukraine
- Thread starter Mutzo Nutzo
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davek
Player Valuation: £150m
...oh, the counter offensive is much more than a ground assault now...that's convenient given the ground assault is in ruins.
Current situation around the city of Donetsk. Uke forces captured the town of Optyne and are now 1.5Km north of Donetsk airfield. They are now also assaulting Ru positions north of Spartak.
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davek
Player Valuation: £150m
You'll see more attacks on Crimea and drone attacks on Russian soil as the counter offensive continues to fail for Ukriane and the bad weather freezes the conflict for 5 months.
Inevitable.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
There's a lot of Ifs in there.Dave - I’d say given the lack of air superiority and in the face of 10Km deep minefields, trenches and fixed fortifications the strategy employed by the Ukes is the only one available to them. If they are to stand any chance at the negotiating table they have to split the Russian army by reaching the Azov coast and isolate Crimea.
They have broken through the first lines of defence in a few places most significantly south of Robotyne. Apparently yesterday saw the first real tank on tank battle (Leopards v T-55,s). Apparently it was a slaughter.
If they capture Tokmak then that cuts of a major supply route to Ru forces in Kherson and could shape the future of this conflict.
It’s easy for us though to sit in judgement and speak for Ukranians when they see it as an existential fight against an imperialist invading aggressor. They are fighting for their freedom, their families and their future. They are the ones who should ultimately decide when and how this war stops not us in the west. If they want to continue then we should continue to support them and give them the tools to do the job,
I think we both know there'll be no cracking of that front line. The Ukrainians will continue to nibble away at it until the weather changes things and that'll be that. There's no western military analyst predicting anything like a splitting of Russian forces that ends the land corridor to Crimea.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Kev The Rat
Player Valuation: £70m
Agreed and this is not going to help the Ukes cause in any way
They are doing this because they have absolutely no other cards left to play .
There is no way Russia will ever surrender any parts of the newly absorbed territories on the back of a few drones.
Absolute own goal from NATO
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Or you could look at it another way.
1. Continued drone strikes on Moscow force Ru to redeploy valuable air defence assets away from Ukraine/Crimea
2. Continued SOF missions further degrade air defence /EW systems around Crimea
3. This effectively opens the way for more cruise missile strikes against key Russian targets (Ships, subs, C2). The stuff that’s really gonna hurt them
funny that just over 17 months ago the Ukranians were making petrol bombs in Kyiv, now they’re planning and executing complex combined arms ops that are shaping the battlefield.
Agree - a lot of ifs but let’s just see how it pans out
Kev The Rat
Player Valuation: £70m
I don’t know what point you’re trying to make?
Is any of this going to force Russia to surrender territory ?
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Looks like Moscow is on fire again.
Kev The Rat
Player Valuation: £70m
If escalation is the name of the game, these people are doing a very good job of it.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
The frustration for me is that this delays the inevitable peace deal and more lives are lost.
I’m just providing a scenario based on what I see happening.
1. The Russians control the Black Sea and use their fleet to regularly launch missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure
2. The play from the Ukes is to hit and damage their fleet in order to do that they first have to degrade the AD/EW systems protecting them. This they do by attacking Moscow (forcing systems to redeploy and launching SOF raids.
3. Then they can launch their own cruise missile/drone attacks on the Black Sea fleet forcing Ru to redeploy it away from Crimea and stop the attacks on cities like Odessa.
It’s a tactic called shaping the battlefield. The Ukes have been well trained and are showing they’re very capable of executing it.
The Ukranian battle scape is huge and complex with many layers - it’s not just about headlong assaults into enemy positions - it’s fought on many different levels
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