Current Affairs Ukraine

[bluestevon]

Questions for @bluestevon : do you think I'd be going to bed tonight worried if I'll see the end of October if Putin hadn't invaded Ukraine? Would you?

Also, who was the last person to say "no" to Putin's face?

Taking the question purely in isolation, then nope.

Second point, no idea mate.

 

[bluestevon]

Trying to assassinate his philosopher is Dugin, the far right Russian Nazi nationalist that is Putins inspiration.

'trying', who did they kill instead mate?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

'trying', who did they kill instead mate?

Who is they, comrade?

 

[bluestevon]

Who is they, comrade?

No idea GI Joe, you tell me.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

No idea GI Joe, you tell me.

You posed it Steveski!

 

[bluestevon]

You posed it Steveski!

Ahh in which case, that's fine, come to your own conclusion mate

 

[LinekersLegs]

Special Report: Assessing Putin’s Implicit Nuclear Threats After Annexation

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not threaten an immediate nuclear attack to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensives into Russian-occupied Ukraine during his speech announcing Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory. Putin announced Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk...

www.understandingwar.org

A mouthful but something to chew on.

Thanks for posting, found this a good summary
Putin is attempting to force Kyiv to the negotiating table by annexing Russian-occupied territory and threatening nuclear use.[2] He is following the trajectory that ISW forecasted he might on May 13. As ISW wrote at the time: “A Russian annexation would seek to present Kyiv with a fait accompli that precludes negotiations on territorial boundaries even for a ceasefire by asserting that Russia will not discuss the status of (illegally annexed through military conquest) Russian territory—the argument the Kremlin has used regarding Crimea since 2014.” Predictably, Putin demanded that Ukraine return to negotiations in his September 30 speech announcing annexation and precluded any discussion of returning illegally annexed Ukrainian territory to Kyiv’s control: “We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately cease all fire and hostilities and end the war it initiated in 2014 and return to the negotiations table. We are ready for it and have said that several times. But the decision of the people in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson we will not negotiate. This choice has been made and Russia will not betray it.”

 

[LinekersLegs]

Poor kid

 

[bluestevon]

I dont understand mate?

Im no real fan of Americas desire to control the whole world, but quite frankly, would rather them than Putin or China.

That's the thing, what's happening isn't about a single country atm, it's about one part of the world wanting an end to the unipolar world and the unipolar nation wishing to maintain it's hegemony.

Ukraine just where the unlucky sods where it's being played out - and it was predicted by much smarter people than we have here that it would be that particular 'battleground' long ago

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

We will see who blinks first. Options are dwindling.

 

[Drico]

I disagree. While it'll have terrible consequences, it opens Pandora's box and lets any nuclear able nation consider using the weapons in regional conflicts.

It undermines many of the assurances the MAD has arguably provided over the past half a century and more. Russia is posturing here, nothing else.

If they used nuclear weapons and there wasn't's a response, the world would decline very, very quickly. A response would be required and would occur.

The question is, what would it be and how severe.

If Russia is posturing, as you say, then nothing to worry about.

I'm afraid that nuclear able nations have been using nuclear weapons since 1945. Nothing has changed.

I'm sure there would be a response to a nuclear attack on Ukraine. I just doubt that it would be nuclear.

 

[LostLegend]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

That's the thing, what's happening isn't about a single country atm, it's about one part of the world wanting an end to the democratic world and the democratic nation wishing to maintain Ukraines status as a free nation.

Rinsed the Putin guff out of that for you there.

 

[Martin Alvito]

That's the main problem, borders and countries have all the way through history changed, so a certain point can always be pulled out to justify an action.

Is your argument that the Westphalian system is as bogus as FFP, then? It's definitely there for the taking if you want to pick it up.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I get what you are saying and tend to agree but it feels that in this situation you need a tough guy or aggresive lunatic to be making the end of Russia threats that would leave Putin in doubt. Then a voice of reason to mediate. We have seen where bending down t these sorts leads, appeasement etc. It is a horrendous situation and anyone supporting Putin in creating this situation needs their head feeling.

Classic 'good cop, bad cop' tactics.

In general, the problem with these situations is that 'winning' is about managing risk perception in the eyes of other human beings, which is a chancy proposition with ample opportunities for misperception landing everyone where no one wanted to be.