Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Khalekan]

I think this whole thing has been orchestrated to sabotage Brexit, and that includes conservatives including Johnson

let us go through the sequence of events;

Johnson goes in all guns blazing, the farce of the prorogue, designed to purposefully inflame remainers, rees-mogg lounging in the HOC, throwing out the 'rebels', the 'do or die' pledge, which meant if he was unable to leave (i.e. seek an extension), he has the escape route of resignation on grounds of principle, thereby handing the keys to Corbyn to enact a 2nd ref, revoke a50, whichever is easier.

a series of cock-ups? - i don't think so. more along the lines of a stitch up to resolve the brexit question in remain's favour, which was the objective from the outset, and only the 'wrong' initial result threw that awry.

I like your thinking, Kev

Now, tell me.....did Neil Armstrong really walk on the moon?

Did Lee Harvey Oswald act alone?

And how about that third Tower, Building 7 ?

 

[Brisan123]

Please bear in mind I’ve not picked up a text book on macroeconomics for 10 years.

Tbh I believe in modelling called real business cycles, it works on the premise that economies go through boom and bust, and rather than trying to prevent the bust or increase the boom you look to lessen both in order to have a smoother upwards trend.

Given that there was excessive spending by new labour (including selling gold at a stupidly low price), we found ourselves in a period of excessive ‘bust’.

The IMF, IMO use dated modelling - and we can see this through the premise that most macro models show austerity policies generally increase unemployment as government spending falls. Now using the real world - Has unemployment grown?

I’d say no.

Despite the British governments spending,and the more obscene Irish governments, spending surely the bust was caused by the implosion of the American sub prime mortgage market.
The Irish banking system had a small but significant holing in this market.
This preceded by the Goldman Sachs failure was the real cause of the bust.
Both these events were beyond the control of either government.
I agree with the premise of lessening both the boom and the bust to give a more stable economy and a gradual rise in wealth that lifts all boats equally.
Oh I am not qualified in these matters just an enthusiastic reader and follower of economics .
So feel free to correct me

 

[Kev The Rat]

I like your thinking, Kev

Now, tell me.....did Neil Armstrong really walk on the moon?

Did Lee Harvey Oswald act alone?

And how about that third Tower, Building 7 ?

so its just cock-up after cock-up after cock-up?

 

[roydo]

so its just cock-up after cock-up after cock-up?

If the central premise was to ask the UK population to vote to get MPs to complete a Rubicks Cube, Yes or No, but when presented with the Rubicks Cube they had to actually complete, someone had failed to notice that the stickers on the side were arranged so it was actually impossible.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

I think this whole thing has been orchestrated to sabotage Brexit, and that includes conservatives including Johnson

let us go through the sequence of events;

Johnson goes in all guns blazing, the farce of the prorogue, designed to purposefully inflame remainers, the smoke screen of the court cases - (interesting how they fail when parliament itself has done what was needed), rees-mogg lounging in the HOC, throwing out the 'rebels', the 'do or die' pledge, which meant if he was unable to leave (i.e. seek an extension), he has the escape route of resignation on grounds of principle, thereby handing the keys to Corbyn to enact a 2nd ref, revoke a50, whichever is easier.

a series of cock-ups? - i don't think so. more along the lines of a stitch up to resolve the brexit question in remain's favour, which was the objective from the outset, and only the 'wrong' initial result threw that awry. the only leavers are the brexit party and ukip and they operate on the very fringes.

You've answered your own rant with the last sentence.

UKIP and the Brexit Party are on the very fringes.

For good reason - cos they are raving eejits!

 

[dholliday]

Thanks Ed oops I mean Holliday haha! I was just curious is all. I work in IT security aswell as automated systems and it's always interesting to know this kind of stuff.

aye, i'm in IT too, as remote admin. am freelance so taken 2019 off, back on it next year tho'. back to unlocking hdd-encryptions and granting ad-group permissions, yay!

 

[dholliday]

Of course we have. But how often do you display that publicly? And how many people are tasked with presenting themselves as a serious figure who represents the country?

Apples and pears.

meh...we haven't seen a serious PM since Major, and he was thrashed as being too dull 'n grey.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

So when the ERG knuckledraggers waltz back to their constituencies for the weekend what % do you think are now quietly crapping themselves that Johnson and Rees Mogg will balls it up?

 

[The binman chronicles]

I don't understand the oppositions thinking on this general election business. Hear me out before jumping down my throat.

It's now becoming clear what the strategy behind Boris Johnson is, and probably has been since he first became PM. And that is to lead the Tories into a GE asap, and to do so as the champion of the Leave vote. Everything he's done, from the pledges he has made to deprived labour voting area's, the police and the health service, to going to European leaders to get an agreement to relook at the WA based on new and seemingly imaginary alternatives to the backstop, to proroguing parliament to force the opposition to bring the no deal bill through much quicker than they wanted, to getting rid of Tory MPs that voted against Brexit, to proposing a GE to put the Brexit question back to the people.

The opposition abstained, but effectively by doing so, voted down the first govt bill calling for a GE on Oct 14th. I can understand this because the no deal bill hasn't been made law yet. But they have also said they intend to go against the second bill being brought on Monday, by which stage the no deal bill should have been made law. So the statute they need to stop no deal and request an extension is in place. Part of UK law. Fears over Johnson changing the GE date to after October 31st can easily be erased by adding an amendment to the bill saying that the date if the 14th can't be changed.

For me, there is no valid reason for refusing this second GE bill, other than the oppositions desire for Johnson to go to the EU and request an extension. Which he will do. He may be saying now that he won't but that's all part of the plan. He has to go. It's the law. FFS he wants to go. Because it gives him the biggest stage possible to show that this has been forced upon him by Corbyn. Johnson's not bothered about eating humbled pie. He's so thick skinned he doesn't even know what it is.

Have you not noticed how he has been building up the rhetoric with Corbyn. He isn't bothered about SNP or LibDems, or Greens, all of who are much bigger supporters of remain that Corbyn. No, he's going after Corbyn, and it's because he knows that Labour are the most vulnerable with a GE and that they have the most to lose. By making Corbyn the architect of forcing the Brexit extension on him just as he was on the cusp of agreeing a new deal with the EU. By doing so he is making a direct play for the Brexit voters that dominate over two thirds of labour held seats.

Bottom line here is that Johnson wants to go to the EU to ask for an extension. It is so easy to show the world it has been forced on him against his will, plus will also conveniently sidestep the matter of the backstop proposals. Putting the blame for the extension firmly at the feet of Labour will likely increase the number of Labour voters who will put leave at the top of their voting requirements, and whilst they may not vote Tory many more will probably vote for the BP.

The opposition don't want an election until after October 31st because an extension might not have been agreed earlier. Much easier to force BoJo to get an extension, that way the incoming party don't have just 10 or so business days to either negotiate a deal or extension themselves. Gives them a bit more breathing space.

Not that I think Labour will get in mind you, but stranger things have happened and you have to prepare like you will win it. Also if the Tories win big they might see that as a mandate for a no deal Brexit, so by taking away the immediacy of it all it gives the house more options.

 

[Brisan123]

On a very basic level the business cycle you describe makes sense - but couldn't this also be linked to a Keynesian model? ie. Spend during the bust to lower the effect?

This also then doesn't seem to fit with the idea of then having austerity measures in place for so long?

As a total amateur my take on it would be what my granny used to say.
Save your pennies for a rainy day.
When times are good don't have giveaway budgets,don't put more money in peoples pockets by way of tax cuts to further fuel spending.
Rather temper the spending by keeping a rein on it and spend on infrastructure and education that will stand you in good stead when times are bad.
Save some of the boom money and drip feed it into the economy when the inevitable bust happens to lessen its impact.
As I said just an enthusiastic amateurs opinion
Back on topic ,in my opinion a no deal brexit will be bad for all concerned as its a leap into the unknown and markets and big business do not like uncertainty and unknowns
Johnson has painted himself into a corner and will do his utmost to keep his word irregardless of the consequences and if it means he has to break the law I believe he will do it in the hope a GE vindicates him

 

[arminisgod]

Why would a LP member find that funny?....

I dont. But it's not offensive either.

 

[Xizor]

I dont. But it's not offensive either.

Sure it is. It's offensive to those poor bleeders who spend hours standing around in stifling costumes on minimum wage; as sports mascots, or advertising pizza etc, to be compared to someone like Corbyn who has spent his entire life playing student union politics and pulling in an MP's salary.

 

[Brisan123]

Weird how they claim to want independence, but still want be a member of the Eu and adopt the Euro. Strange times we are living in.

Why strange.
Because they want to make their own choices based on Economic and social benefits rather than on old colonial rule Britannia thinking

 

[Brisan123]

With a leader who is pushing for a remain vote, but has a long standing history in The House for opposing many aspects of the EU - if not the EU altogether.

Personally, I always voted to remain and feel that a no-deal Brexit comes with huge concerns and if we could turn the clocks back I really, really wound.

However, when you remove all the political allegations the people of this country voted for us to leave. Put aside the broken promises and mistruths...

...the vote was to stay or remain. Right now all the political shenanigans, from both sides, is in my eyes souring the democratic processes that we've relied on.

Whatever happens, I think that the electorate as a whole will now see the whole political process in far more negative light for a long, long time.

I think there will be many political casualties along the way!

If a new forward thinking truthful party who did not promise the sun moon and stars but rather spoke about the good and bad (unpalatable may be a better phrase ) things they need to do came about ,I think they would get a lot of support.
The British public must be sick to the back teeth of the lot of them in power now

 

[Brisan123]

Some absolute turnips in that place right now. Never seen so many inadequate people in a workplace before.

You should come and visit my job lol