Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Frang]

Well thats where the inputs come in. You are correct, with no input, City would beat Newport. But if just one of a hundred potential inputs gave Newport a 10 goal lead with 3 minutes to go, the outcome would change would it not?

That is how, in an extremely crude way, these forecasts are made.

talk about over egging it...

jeez.

 

[roydo]

talk about over egging it...

jeez.

Wot?

 

[The binman chronicles]

I see that house prices will tumble if we have no deal. You would think quite a few on here would be in favour of that......

Let me as a poor person explain to you why that is bad. I've bought my house for x amount of 000's and have paid off give or take 25% of it, if house prices drop 30% I have no equity. It's ok saying well other houses will have dropped by the same but I would have then lost my deposit to be able to move up. So I would end up in purgatory again.

It is only a good thing if you have paid off most of your mortgage or you're a first time buyer.

 

[roydo]

Let me as a poor person explain to you why that is bad. I've bought my house for x amount of 000's and have paid off give or take 25% of it, if house prices drop 30% I have no equity. It's ok saying well other houses will have dropped by the same but I would have then lost my deposit to be able to move up. So I would end up in purgatory again.

It is only a good thing if you have paid off most of your mortgage or you're a first time buyer.

Well its only bad if you have to sell. We are way too obsessed with house prices in this country.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Well its only bad if you have to sell. We are way too obsessed with house prices in this country.

True. I have waited 11 years after the crash and prices have just got to the stage where I can think about selling and putting down a decent deposit on my next home. I would guess most people under 30 and a fair whack of under 40's are unlikely in the home they see themselves in forever so it does matter to a lot of younger people. I'm sure it will be another issue brought up in a no deal scenario of the unjustness forced upon them by the golden girls.

 

[Methuselah]

Sure it did, I'm actually a historical scholar with particular emphasis on Late Republican/Early Imperial Rome, Revolutionary/Napoleonic France and her wars, and both World Wars. I've studied the effect and impact of political upheaval on society for decades. I'm also a fan of classic British TV and like that show (although Iprefer 'Allo 'Allo). The real Home Guard were brave men who had often already 'done their time' and yet volunteered to serve their country in its greatest need. I don't know why you're trying to make me feel bad in comparison to them, I'd happily accept they did more than I could ever do.

Of course, I'm not part of the Boomer generation that is now trying to claim some reflected glory off the previous one. Were you in the Home Guard? Did you serve in WW2 at all? Or is your post just the standard Brexiter tactic of taking umbrage and claiming outrage to try to shut people up?

Well I lived through the second world war from beginning to end, including the Blitz. I was also on active service in the Malaya campaign during my National Service, so I don't have to claim reflected glory off anyone. What did you do?

 

[scratchnsurf]

Well I lived through the second world war from beginning to end, including the Blitz. I was also on active service in the Malaya campaign during my National Service, so I don't have to claim reflected glory off anyone. What did you do?

Who would you like us to have a war with so those of a younger age can do something of great value to the country?

 

[Xizor]

What did you do?

What I love about your post is how it proves my point completely. Rather than addressing anything, you just went on a high horse again of what your experiences are, with a barbed question at the end, as if you're telling me I have no right to an opinion. All because you don't like a picture! I knew voting Leave correlated with advanced age and lower educational attainment, I never realised it correlated with thinner skin too.

Total respect for your service by the way. It was long abandoned by the time I was of age.

 

[RichardP]

I'm sure the UK not honouring it's agreements and contracts will play well throughout the coming bouts of international trade agreements and diplomatic posturing................

There is no 'agreement or contract' until it has been ratified by Parliament. And Parliament has rejected the 'agreement' on 3 separate occasions.

My understanding is therefore that no divorce bill or any other form of settlement or agreement has been legally concluded. May thought she had a 'deal' with EU but she made it very clear that it had to be ratified by Parliament first. It wasn't and is very unlikely ever now to be ratified.

We are therefore in a position with a new PM, only 2 months before exit day with no agreement in place and no negotiations taking place.

My own view is that once EU realise that the remain element in Parliament can't stop a no deal exit that they will then agree to negotiate and probably offer a solution that they have, thus far, been holding in reserve.

My concern is purely over time available. We cannot delay the exit date again for many reasons and I think both sides want a deal but the EU is still hoping that it might not have to change anything. That is a dangerous game to play. BJ has said he is prepared to negotiate but the backstop must go first.

Let's see who, if anyone, blinks first!

 

[roydo]

There is no 'agreement or contract' until it has been ratified by Parliament. And Parliament has rejected the 'agreement' on 3 separate occasions.

My understanding is therefore that no divorce bill or any other form of settlement or agreement has been legally concluded. May thought she had a 'deal' with EU but she made it very clear that it had to be ratified by Parliament first. It wasn't and is very unlikely ever now to be ratified.

We are therefore in a position with a new PM, only 2 months before exit day with no agreement in place and no negotiations taking place.

My own view is that once EU realise that the remain element in Parliament can't stop a no deal exit that they will then agree to negotiate and probably offer a solution that they have, thus far, been holding in reserve.

My concern is purely over time available. We cannot delay the exit date again for many reasons and I think both sides want a deal but the EU is still hoping that it might not have to change anything. That is a dangerous game to play. BJ has said he is prepared to negotiate but the backstop must go first.

Let's see who, if anyone, blinks first!

Hope you are right.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Let me as a poor person explain to you why that is bad. I've bought my house for x amount of 000's and have paid off give or take 25% of it, if house prices drop 30% I have no equity. It's ok saying well other houses will have dropped by the same but I would have then lost my deposit to be able to move up. So I would end up in purgatory again.

It is only a good thing if you have paid off most of your mortgage or you're a first time buyer.

He knows that, he's just trying to deflect something that he would ordinarily think as a bad thing, into something that he can use to annoy remainers (who he clearly thinks are all avacado buying millennials who can't afford a house).

 

[Jebus_lives]

There is no 'agreement or contract' until it has been ratified by Parliament. And Parliament has rejected the 'agreement' on 3 separate occasions.

My understanding is therefore that no divorce bill or any other form of settlement or agreement has been legally concluded. May thought she had a 'deal' with EU but she made it very clear that it had to be ratified by Parliament first. It wasn't and is very unlikely ever now to be ratified.

We are therefore in a position with a new PM, only 2 months before exit day with no agreement in place and no negotiations taking place.

My own view is that once EU realise that the remain element in Parliament can't stop a no deal exit that they will then agree to negotiate and probably offer a solution that they have, thus far, been holding in reserve.

My concern is purely over time available. We cannot delay the exit date again for many reasons and I think both sides want a deal but the EU is still hoping that it might not have to change anything. That is a dangerous game to play. BJ has said he is prepared to negotiate but the backstop must go first.

Let's see who, if anyone, blinks first!

The divorce bill covers the EU budget, European Investment Bank, development fund and central bank. The EU works in a 7 year budget, so it's effectively arrears for what we owe. The proposed money, that we are discussing, is for future commitments.

I think this is why 'divorce bill' is unhelpful as it largely invokes an idea that it is the price we pay to leave, rather than the contribution we have agreed to make to the EU for our continued membership.

I dint want to seem like I'm constantly contradicting you, but on this last point. The financial settlement formed part of Phase 1 of the negotiations along with the Irish Border and EU nationals rights.

Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Ki

Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations

ec.europa.eu

Also the UK signed up to the Multi Annual Framework in 2014 and committed itself to that until 2020.

The budgetary system of the European Union

Find an overview of the current and past EU budgetary system, plus funding opportunities, latest news, results, and figures from the budget department.

ec.europa.eu

So the UK is both legally and morally (good faith principles) obliged to pay that money. Also Section 3 of the European Communities Act gives the ECJ precedence in the UK, which it won't continue to have in the event of 'no deal' but then another arbiter likely International Court of Justice or the Permanent Court of Arbitration, has to make a decision on what ruling it will give on any money owed, which could amount to much more owed by the UK than any settled agreement.

Now the argument has been by Rees-Mogg and others that the Vienna Convention on Article of Treaties releases you from any obligation of ongoing performance of a treaty once that agreement is cancelled, however the case law is largely against that as it requires 'unforeseen' circumstances.

Also the EU would rely on obligations made by the UK under the EU Aquis Communautaire which are pretty clear and there is a prosess for withdrawal mapped out under Treaty on European Union.

In short, if you commit to a joint multi year finacial and political agreement and you decide you no longer want to operate with them, there has to be a division of assests or financial settlement to that and unless you agree this first, then you cannot enter into discussion about what sort of relationship you want to continue to have in the future.

 

[RichardP]

Well its only bad if you have to sell. We are way too obsessed with house prices in this country.

I am inclined to agree with you but the reality is that, for most people, their home (if they are lucky enough to own it) represents by far the greatest portion of their total wealth. It is therefore only human nature to keep track of market and geographic variations in house prices.

With any change there will be winners and losers. If house prices do fall (and I'm not convinced they will apart from places like central London) then that should enable more people to buy their first property which surely has to be a good thing.

For people who see their equity reduce in their property, they can still buy the house next door for the same price as they are selling their existing house (exactly the same as if their house had increased in value) so their purchasing power hasn't really changed, just their ability to release equity.

 

[peteblue]

He knows that, he's just trying to deflect something that he would ordinarily think as a bad thing, into something that he can use to annoy remainers (who he clearly thinks are all avacado buying millennials who can't afford a house).

I think you will find that I have always argued that houses are overpriced......

 

[Kurt.]

I think you will find that I have always argued that houses are overpriced......

What about private rental costs Pete ?