Current Affairs Ukraine

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I don't see how they can even hold Kyiv and the cities they are currently attacking tbh. The Ukrainian people aren't going to lay down so once Russian troops withdraw they will just overthrow any puppets put in place.

This really. Ukraine is now so anti-Russia that the genie will never be put back in the bottle. Putin has made a complete arse of this, he assumes that military strength of 200,000 can overcome a determined country of 44Million supported by the USA, U.K., EU… He may even win, short time, but knows that eventually Ukraine will kick his arse out of the country……Putin is toast….
 
How would it cause a war? Would the Bosniaks and Croats not be happy just having the Bosnian Federation.
Croats living there would try to use opportunity to breakaway and join Croatia, Bosnians (Muslims) would fight to keep country whole.
You could definitely expect Serbia and Croatia to intervene in some way too, Croatia being part of NATO and Serbia have close ties with Russia. It would be quagmire once more
 
Thinking about Medvedev’s unhinged tweets today and recently, makes me wonder about the future post Putin.

Medvedev did have a run for a while but was seen as too weak so Putin came back.

Too weak!

Not saying Putin isn’t a danger but looking at potential future leaders in Russia you might just get an equally hard line successor

Another point to remember for anyone looking for a coup to replace Putin, the Army has always been subordinate to the political class in Russia which is why they’ve never had a military leader, so this may not be an option.

Too weak in that he was pretending to be President whilst Putin dealt with the pesky problem of term limits.
 
This really. Ukraine is now so anti-Russia that the genie will never be put back in the bottle. Putin has made a complete arse of this, he assumes that military strength of 200,000 can overcome a determined country of 44Million supported by the USA, U.K., EU… He may even win, short time, but knows that eventually Ukraine will kick his arse out of the country……Putin is toast….
Not sure it’s impossible obviously it would be hard

He’d need to install a new regime and retain an army in the east at least (he has to now anyway as he has recognised Donbas and Lughansk and they don’t have their own armed forces)

From there if the new regime wasn’t slaughtering people in the streets for no reason he just might be able to turn it into Belarus mk2

Like I say unlikely but not totally improbable

Todays reaffirmation of NATO’s red lines for interference may embolden him
 
Exactly

In reality the notion of a conventional war between NATO and Russia doesn’t exist.

It goes MAD almost immediately after the first shots are fired.

Don't agree with that at all.

There have been multiple occasions in history when US and Soviet aircraft engaged in firing shots. No nukes got launched.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-t...Soviet_Union_and_the_United_States#Korean_War

And MAD is a concept that describes the deterrence of nuclear war, not the outbreak of it.
 
Don't agree with that at all.

There have been multiple occasions in history when US and Soviet aircraft engaged in firing shots. No nukes got launched.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-t...Soviet_Union_and_the_United_States#Korean_War

And MAD is a concept that describes the deterrence of nuclear war, not the outbreak of it.
Apologies - yes to your last point

And to the first point - sure let NATO fire a few bullets and go home - nothing likely to happen there. So I can’t really see the point of that line of approach.
 
Thinking about Medvedev’s unhinged tweets today and recently, makes me wonder about the future post Putin.

Medvedev did have a run for a while but was seen as too weak so Putin came back.

Too weak!

Not saying Putin isn’t a danger but looking at potential future leaders in Russia you might just get an equally hard line successor

Another point to remember for anyone looking for a coup to replace Putin, the Army has always been subordinate to the political class in Russia which is why they’ve never had a military leader, so this may not be an option.
For somebody who talks with such conviction about Russia, you sure are rusty on the basics. This isn't even remotely true.

Medvedev could have been the most extraordinarily capable President and he still would have been replaced in 2012 - he was merely a puppet for Putin to circumnavigate the Russian term limits.
 
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