Current Affairs Ukraine

[Xizor]

This is what defeat looks like.

We need peace.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

There is an aspect of this (especially what is put out by the propagandists of both countries), but an awful lot of what they are doing is aimed at the defence of their own regimes rather than anything else like the overall good of the country.

If you look at Russia for example, its possible to argue that the propaganda could be aimed at shaping / preparing public opinion for significant changes along some sort of master plan but the level of it and the fact that its been like that for 10-15 years now suggests to me that it is more akin to a bilge pump constantly running on a boat that is taking on water; if the regime was confident that it had the actual, active support for what it wants to do then it wouldn't need to put that sort of thing out all the time across so many formats.

Likewise the domestic political changes - the recent decision to remove the elections for mayors for example, and the removal of lower levels of local government - smack of a government that cannot allow any local dissent for fear that it might spiral. On top of what the regime has already done it suggests that these are not the actions of a confident, durable regime, they are the actions of a knowingly brittle one.

European Russia is, lets not forget, smaller than it has been since the 1500s and the regime knows that if control was released it would get smaller still - sorry for saying this for the umpteenth time but the significance for what is happening now of what the regime saw what happened in the Belarus election of 2020 cannot be overstated. They know what would happen if the people there ever had an actual choice; the border of the EU would have been 300 miles from Moscow. What is more, I think there is a good chance that if Belarus and Ukraine joined and there was a peaceful improvement in the lives of the citizens of those two countries that, pretty soon, the Russian people would ask to join as well. This was done without any military threat (they wanted to be more European, not more NATO), which is something an autocratic regime that is focused on appearing militarily strong to justify itself cannot effectively counteract except with military force, which as history tells us can be effective in the short term but usually piles up more problems the longer it lasts.

The regime probably understands this situation as an extreme threat to itself, and it would be heavily encouraged to think in that way by the influences it has abroad which are lets not forget two-way; China and especially the US would absolutely dread an EU that included Russia and would encourage almost any attempt to stop it.

I think Western governments, especially in Europe, need to reevaluate what we are doing to try and resolve this crisis. If we had as a deterrent a viable independent military / military industrial base that could support a major conflict (which everyone surely agrees we need) then we (EU/UK) really could say that NATO in its current form may cause more problems than it solves; it presents a military threat to a regime who requires as justification for its survival a military threat.

If we instead had more of an understanding of the immense and unprecedented advantage that the EU model has over autocratic regimes - the ability to encorporate new states peacefully and with their consent, for the common good at all - then we would understand how regimes like that of Russia are terrified by it. In that sense, expanding the EU elsewhere, such as by actually allowing Turkey and especially Serbia to join would probably be more effective at influencing Russian opinion than any amount of sanctions would be. Russians would be increasingly surrounded by a better idea of how to live and would react to it.

Putin’s Russia is neither entirely weak nor entirely strong, it is a brittle regime that uses aggressive tactics to project strength and compensate for its vulnerabilities. If we contrast this with North Korea’s defensive isolationism, Russia’s approach is very much outward-facing and ambitious, seeking to reshape the global order to its advantage. Russkiy Mir.

Ultimately, I would suggest that the West must recognise that Putin’s actions are both a sign of assertive aggression, driven by a desire to restore Russian greatness, but also of weakness, stemming from internal fragility and Russia’s relative decline in the “near abroad”.

The WUMs on here parrot Putin’s propaganda and suggest that Ukraine and the west should roll over and let him do as he pleases. That is a recipe for disaster. The challenge Putin poses requires a combination of deterrence to counter immediate threats (total support for Ukraine for as long as is needed or wanted) and long-term strategies that exploit Russia’s vulnerabilities, such as strengthening democratic institutions (NATO, the EU the UN etc) and supporting Russian civil society. Regarding the EU, I agree that it offers a model for a united world. In the short to medium term it would/does still need to find measures to protect the union from the influence of actors such as Putin through Orban and the like.

 

[Xizor]

Have the the Times editors been escalating the war now, leading to this presumably understandable reaction from Vlad's Bad Lads?

Any of the resident Putinistas weighing in?

Luckily doesn't look like many of those windows open so they might just be safe.

 

[COYBL25]

Have the the Times editors been escalating the war now, leading to this presumably understandable reaction from Vlad's Bad Lads?

Any of the resident Putinistas weighing in?

Luckily doesn't look like many of those windows open so they might just be safe.

I bet he’s the life and soul at the office Christmas party.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Have the the Times editors been escalating the war now, leading to this presumably understandable reaction from Vlad's Bad Lads?

Any of the resident Putinistas weighing in?

Luckily doesn't look like many of those windows open so they might just be safe.

He's upset at this.

 

[bluestevon]

This war will end INO sometime next year.
Russia’s economy cannot sustain this level for much longer.

The trouble is rubble, Biden in 2022...

Sorry but it's bs, time will show ultimately.

Ukraine will concede territory (Crimea and parts of the Donbas region) but also gain much of it back from Russia again IMO (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia).

Nope, soon as they were accepted into law as part of Russia they were gone. The Ukraine will be very lucky just to hold onto any of the novorissiya province's now.

As for NATO’s involvement and support for Ukraine, well NATO is responsible for coordinating the delivery of aid to Ukraine from allies and partners - huge logistical effort.

I totally agree

Through NATO’s CAP package they have provided Ukraine with over 800million Euros
to provide Ukraine with non-lethal aid such as body armour, fuel, vehicles, cold weather clothing, secure comms, demining equipment and medical supplies.

NATO had also provided Ukraine with training packages to train its military to NATO standards and help Ukraine build its own security and defence industries.

Given the scathing criticism of NATO training by a lot of the ukrops as being completely out of tune with the actual reality - see German training saying drive around the minefield etc. and the losses incurred in NATO trained troops, I'm guessing it's more suited to fighting Vs Arabs wearing sandals.

NATO has provided Ukraine with arms and ammunition. Anti-tank systems, drones, artillery, air defence systems, F-16’s, Tanks etc…

They blow up well. Kept Ukraine in the fight so to speak though.

So to say NATO is not doing much to help Ukraine is completely wrong.

Arguable unless to help means to give them the means to slowly lose the entire make population.

 

[bluestevon]

The slide toward the cliff edge is picking up speed and Putin and his cronies are going to need a scapegoat. The cause of this collapse being Putins ill advised war, and the economic effect inevitable. Ms. Nabiullina would do well to avoid windows and cups of tea.

We will see, so far zero real impact from the supposed economic crisis reported in the west.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

We will see, so far zero real impact from the supposed economic crisis reported in the west.

You are so deluded. In some ways its good you don’t realize the truth. You are going to find out the long term implications of Putin. Case in point Assad never gave it a second thought he would enjoying sunny Moscow instead of his opulent palaces in Syria in the near term.

 

[bluestevon]

You are so deluded. In some ways its good you don’t realize the truth. You are going to find out the long term implications of Putin. Case in point Assad never gave it a second thought he would enjoying sunny Moscow instead of his opulent palaces in Syria in the near term.

I may do indeed, you may also understand the long term effects of foreign intervention.

Time will tell. Typical myopic yank, comparing Syria to Russia. Look at the economies look at the history look at the armed forces.

But oh well we have a million dead, Ukraine's lost 30k, our economy is about to implode, Ukraine's strong. the EU and NATO are unified.

As I said time will tell.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

I may do indeed, you may also understand the long term effects of foreign intervention.

Time will tell. Typical myopic yank, comparing Syria to Russia. Look at the economies look at the history look at the armed forces.

But oh well we have a million dead, Ukraine's lost 30k, our economy is about to implode, Ukraine's strong. the EU and NATO are unified.

As I said time will tell.

Just like I said the utilization of North Korean troops should speak volumes of your slow demise of effective leadership on the battlefield. Also, not coming to the aid of a friendly nation should also give you pause while under attack like in the past. I don’t believe in all spin the Western media proposes but from third party sources with no actual dog in the fight resonates similar economic problems for your new nation.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

We will see, so far zero real impact from the supposed economic crisis reported in the west.

I'm sure that the economic data is all a lie and officials calling out Ms. Nabiullina is part of Putins theatre.

 

[COYBL25]

I'm sure that the economic data is all a lie and officials calling out Ms. Nabiullina is part of Putins theatre.

The shopping malls are full and doing a roaring trade in spuds, so it must just be Western propaganda.

 

[Eidean]

Given the scathing criticism of NATO training by a lot of the ukrops as being completely out of tune with the actual reality - see German training saying drive around the minefield etc. and the losses incurred in NATO trained troops, I'm guessing it's more suited to fighting Vs Arabs wearing sandals.

Majority of NATO trained troops weren’t trained in Western Doctrine, only how to use equipment.

You’ve been told this before though.

 

[bluestevon]

Just like I said the utilization of North Korean troops should speak volumes of your slow demise of effective leadership on the battlefield. Also, not coming to the aid of a friendly nation should also give you pause while under attack like in the past. I don’t believe in all spin the Western media proposes but from third party sources with no actual dog in the fight resonates similar economic problems for your new nation.

The north Korean troops that have been battling in Ukraine for over two months and yet not one piece of evidence they exist you mean?

 

[bluestevon]

The shopping malls are full and doing a roaring trade in spuds, so it must just be Western propaganda.

Malls and spuds in one post mate, +2 internet points.