We, the west, face a situation of both Russia and China (and their axis) pursuing a vision of global governance where autocratic models, rather than democratic principles, dominate. Russia is trying to reshape Europe’s security architecture and diminish the influence of NATO, while China is seeking a greater role in global institutions and challenging the U.S.-led global order through a mix of economic and military means. It's no secret, they talk openly about this and have been active to this end for years - predating the invasion of Ukraine. It would be foolish to ignore the threats these foes are posing and NATO is key to protecting our western democracies.
There is an aspect of this (especially what is put out by the propagandists of both countries), but an awful lot of what they are doing is aimed at the defence of their own regimes rather than anything else like the overall good of the country.
If you look at Russia for example, its possible to argue that the propaganda could be aimed at shaping / preparing public opinion for significant changes along some sort of master plan but the level of it and the fact that its been like that for 10-15 years now suggests to me that it is more akin to a bilge pump constantly running on a boat that is taking on water; if the regime was confident that it had the actual, active support for what it wants to do then it wouldn't need to put that sort of thing out all the time across so many formats.
Likewise the domestic political changes - the recent decision to remove the elections for mayors for example, and the removal of lower levels of local government - smack of a government that cannot allow any local dissent for fear that it might spiral. On top of what the regime has already done it suggests that these are not the actions of a confident, durable regime, they are the actions of a knowingly brittle one.
European Russia is, lets not forget, smaller than it has been since the 1500s and the regime knows that if control was released it would get smaller still - sorry for saying this for the umpteenth time but the significance for what is happening now of what the regime saw what happened in the Belarus election of 2020 cannot be overstated. They know what would happen if the people there ever had an actual choice; the border of the EU would have been 300 miles from Moscow. What is more, I think there is a good chance that if Belarus and Ukraine joined and there was a peaceful improvement in the lives of the citizens of those two countries that, pretty soon, the Russian people would ask to join as well. This was done without any military threat (they wanted to be more European, not more NATO), which is something an autocratic regime that is focused on appearing militarily strong to justify itself cannot effectively counteract except with military force, which as history tells us can be effective in the short term but usually piles up more problems the longer it lasts.
The regime probably understands this situation as an extreme threat to itself, and it would be heavily encouraged to think in that way by the influences it has abroad which are lets not forget two-way; China and especially the US would absolutely dread an EU that included Russia and would encourage almost any attempt to stop it.
I think Western governments, especially in Europe, need to reevaluate what we are doing to try and resolve this crisis. If we had as a deterrent a viable independent military / military industrial base that could support a major conflict (which everyone surely agrees we need) then we (EU/UK) really could say that NATO in its current form may cause more problems than it solves; it presents a military threat to a regime who requires as justification for its survival a military threat.
If we instead had more of an understanding of the immense and unprecedented advantage that the EU model has over autocratic regimes - the ability to encorporate new states peacefully and with their consent, for the common good at all - then we would understand how regimes like that of Russia are terrified by it. In that sense, expanding the EU elsewhere, such as by actually allowing Turkey and especially Serbia to join would probably be more effective at influencing Russian opinion than any amount of sanctions would be. Russians would be increasingly surrounded by a better idea of how to live and would react to it.
