Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

I think until there is a definite shift in the diplomatic position, we have to assume there isn't one.

As you say, the first hint of a UK missile hitting Russian territory will be that line crossed. Which, in my opinion will be a mistake.

But, I don't think we can seriously suggest that the UK would be acting without any Russian provocation.

Western weapons, including missiles/bombs are already being used in Russias Kursk region.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Western weapons, including missiles/bombs are already being used in Russias Kursk region.

As far as I am aware, they haven't been long range weaponry and they haven't been UK/US.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

As far as I am aware, they haven't been long range weaponry and they haven't been UK/US.

We haven't held our hand up yet but Russia was clear that it was western weaponry and Intel that was/is taking all those bridges out in Kursk.

That aside, Abrams, Bradley's etc are being used on the ground.

Putin is just upset at the idea of Ukraine being able to fight back without one hand tied. Their supply lines and command centres will be getting mullered, with the front becoming unstable.

 

[davek]

NATO members are thinking about the future as much as what is happening now

Russia must be stopped to stop any thought in Putin's mind of going after Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland or Poland. All NATO members

Dont be absurd.

 

[varnish]

Western weapons, including missiles/bombs are already being used in Russias Kursk region.

Kursk is Ukraine (now)

 

[davek]

I rather dislike Putin, as I've stated a fair few times, however I suspect you'll find it difficult to find where I've taken such a stance. I dislike him as he's a bully.

Personally, I'm an advocate of allowing Ukraine to use western weapons further into Russia, but the caveat is that it's not free rein - it has to be within a framework.

Ukraine may want to use them however they wish, yet that's never going to happen. I doubt it's less about Russian retaliation, and rather domestic politics!

Medvedev has already shown recently that he (and Russia) can show a level of composure when discussing nuclear weapons, so it really isn't on the cards...

... unless something absolutely drastic occurred. But the use of these weapons, in the rear, will only help weaken Russia further and help bring about a speedier end.

In Ukraine hands they will be used *by mistake* to attack Russian towns and cities. Anyone with any common sense knows they see this (the permission to launch long range missile strikes deep into Russia) as the best way to get a Russian response that draws in NATO to this conflict.

As for nuclear threats: that's not my calculation. That won't happen. But what will happen is chaos in western Europe as Russia uses all of their assets to trigger bedlam - be that cyber attacks like we've never seen before and terrorist attacks from proxies - and the launch of attacks by militant groups on western presence globally.

Think what this means: it's Putin with his back to the wall and his hold over power resting on demonstrating to the Russian people he's not a busted flush.

My advice: never corner a dangerous animal like Putin who has demonstrated time and again that he won't ever back down.

 

[PhilM]

In Ukraine hands they will be used *by mistake* to attack Russian towns and cities. Anyone with any common sense knows they see this (the permission to launch long range missile strikes deep into Russia) as the best way to get a Russian response that draws in NATO to this conflict.

As for nuclear threats: that's not my calculation. That won't happen. But what will happen is chaos in western Europe as Russia uses all of their assets to trigger bedlam - be that cyber attacks like we've never seen before and terrorist attacks from proxies - and the launch of attacks by militant groups on western presence globally.

Think what this means: it's Putin with his back to the wall and his hold over power resting on demonstrating to the Russian people he's not a busted flush.

My advice: never corner a dangerous animal like Putin who has demonstrated time and again that he won't ever back down.

But he has backed down, whether you consider the rhetoric of previous red lines legitimate or not; he has not fulfilled his promises.

In terms of attacking towns and cities, of course it won’t happen as Ukraine probably a) wouldn’t want to do that, and b) know the consequences.

And by consequences, I’m not evening alluding to Russia’s response, yet rather the probable sudden turning off of the tap from the US et al.

 

[davids]

Weird and boring.

Let me guess, you're single right?

Wrong. happily married for 50+ years three kids etc,but then you're just a mouthpiece rather than a doer, posting from mummy's bedroom.Blah blah blah... cowards... blah blah blah. I was in the military... blah blah blah.

 

[Eidean]

Dont be absurd.

Why do you think those countries wanted to become NATO members Dave?

 

[davids]

I think we all know that the eventual, logical compromise will be that the west allow Ukraine to use their weapons to strike deeper into Russia with set criteria.

Locations that produce military hardware, logistical hubs, arms depots and air defence will become valid targets, which will only help tighten the squeeze on Russia.

Attacking key/high-ranking command and control will be out of bounds due to the possibility of escalation through striking a key member of government etc.

In terms of the Russian red lines, of course they will exist, and I suspect the west know what they truly are through a combination of intelligence and dialogue.

The bluff and sabre-rattling previously shown by Putin is not for the west, but rather domestic consumption - he knows it, and we know it.

Well you've been right about everything up to now.

 

[davek]

But he has backed down, whether you consider the rhetoric of previous red lines legitimate or not; he has not fulfilled his promises.

In terms of attacking towns and cities, of course it won’t happen as Ukraine probably a) wouldn’t want to do that, and b) know the consequences.

And by consequences, I’m not evening alluding to Russia’s response, yet rather the probable sudden turning off of the tap from the US et al.

That's exactly what they're banking on.

They know that the next step after a missile 'accidentally' hitting a Russian city is that it'll prompt a response from Russia and then the ball is NATO's court.

How does anyone not see that Ukraine will be attacking both Russian military AND cities?

This is their golden ticket to avoiding a massive defeat...their only chance to avoid that in fact.

 

[PhilM]

That's exactly what they're banking on.

They know that the next step after a missile 'accidentally' hitting a Russian city is that it'll prompt a response from Russia and then the ball is NATO's court.

How does anyone not see that Ukraine will be attacking both Russian military AND cities?

This is their golden ticket to avoiding a massive defeat...their only chance to avoid that in fact.

Or, as I said, Russia could bank on it for the removal of many weapons because the west won't want a serious escalation, especially the US in an election year.

Is that not a possibility? Ukraine would make better use of use long range weapons to strike marshalling yards, key factories, oil installations and arms depots.

Hitting Russian cities removes their moral legitimacy and would seriously jeopardise any likelihood of joining NATO.

Well you've been right about everything up to now.

I wouldn't expect to me right about 'everything up to now'. I'm magnanimous enough if you want to quote errors, and vice versa.

 

[davek]

Or, as I said, Russia could bank on it for the removal of many weapons because the west won't want a serious escalation, especially the US in an election year.

Is that not a possibility? Ukraine would make better use of use long range weapons to strike marshalling yards, key factories, oil installations and arms depots.

Hitting Russian cities removes their moral legitimacy and would seriously jeopardise any likelihood of joining NATO.

'Accident'...and their western sponsors will spin it for them.

 

[Damo_1878]

Why do you think those countries wanted to become NATO members Dave?

Hasn't answered.

Have you @davek ?

Answer the man

 

[Cork Evertonian]

In Ukraine hands they will be used *by mistake* to attack Russian towns and cities. Anyone with any common sense knows they see this (the permission to launch long range missile strikes deep into Russia) as the best way to get a Russian response that draws in NATO to this conflict.

As for nuclear threats: that's not my calculation. That won't happen. But what will happen is chaos in western Europe as Russia uses all of their assets to trigger bedlam - be that cyber attacks like we've never seen before and terrorist attacks from proxies - and the launch of attacks by militant groups on western presence globally.

Think what this means: it's Putin with his back to the wall and his hold over power resting on demonstrating to the Russian people he's not a busted flush.

My advice: never corner a dangerous animal like Putin who has demonstrated time and again that he won't ever back down.

Pffft dangerous animal he's all bluff so he is. Wasn't he boasting that he'd have all of Ukraine under Russian control within the year?

That doesn't seem to have worked out too well at all! Besides Putin has some brass neck on him, making threats about NATO involvement when his own military is backed with and pounding Ukraine with Chinese and North Korean weaponry.