Current Affairs Ukraine

[Damo_1878]

The is wishful thinking - they’ve got enough air defence left now to make it suicidal for Ukraine to send its Air Force over or near Russia, and anything moveable is probably already out of range of the missiles we are talking about at the moment.

As for “they don’t have enough to cover all areas” - they never did, given the size of the country. They’ll have enough to protect enough to survive any conceivable strike using these weapons from Ukraine.

It's not "wishful thinking". I don't do "wishful thinking" - it's fact. I'm sure @Mutzo Nutzo will also confirm.

Look at the Ukrainian drone strategic air campaign

If Russian air defence was not over stretched that wouldn't be having the impact it is

It is also fact that the Russians have been using air defence missiles as artillery

This is known. They have been using air defence missiles as - artillery.

Don't take my word from it. Take it from people that are tracking what is going on



See 10 minutes 28 seconds and "assessing strain" and/or 28 minutes 54 seconds "Russia usage"

 

[tsubaki]

It's not "wishful thinking". I don't do "wishful thinking" - it's fact. I'm sure @Mutzo Nutzo will also confirm.

Look at the Ukrainian drone strategic air campaign

If Russian air defence was not over stretched that wouldn't be having the impact it is

It is also fact that the Russians have been using air defence missiles as artillery

This is known. They have been using air defence missiles as - artillery.

Don't take my word from it. Take it from people that are tracking what is going on



See 10 minutes 28 seconds and "assessing strain" and/or 28 minutes 54 seconds "Russia usage"

It absolutely is wishful thinking.

The drone air campaign's success is not unique to Ukraine - the Russian drone attacks on Ukraine have seen similar results, as for that matter have Hezbollah's on Israel. This probably represents some form of gap common to most modern air defence systems having to defend against slow moving small aircraft, one that is only really being solved currently by point defence systems.

As for Russia using air defence missiles as artillery, surely that means they have an excess of such things rather than that they lack them. The fact is though the Ukrainian AF is not going deep into Russia on strike missions at all, which should tell you that the air defence is actually working (against the things it is designed to work against, at least).

 

[Damo_1878]

It absolutely is wishful thinking.

The drone air campaign's success is not unique to Ukraine - the Russian drone attacks on Ukraine have seen similar results, as for that matter have Hezbollah's on Israel. This probably represents some form of gap common to most modern air defence systems having to defend against slow moving small aircraft, one that is only really being solved currently by point defence systems.

As for Russia using air defence missiles as artillery, surely that means they have an excess of such things rather than that they lack them. The fact is though the Ukrainian AF is not going deep into Russia on strike missions at all, which should tell you that the air defence is actually working (against the things it is designed to work against, at least).

It absolutely isn't "wishful thinking"

You're the one going on about the Ukranian air force flying over Russia

I never said anything about that.

These are stand off munitions.

STAND OFF MUNITIONS.

They've (Russia) been using S-300 missiles for artillery.

No they really don't. It's their incompetence. They've been ripple firing plus over claiming hits.

This is the nature of an autocratic regime. Don't give the boss bad news

 

[davids]

Cringe.

Keep it up please spud, enjoying you embarrassing yourself completely here.

You allegedly have the military training and you keep throwing the word coward around. The Ukrainian Legion needs trainers just like you for their young conscripts.... Time to put up or shut up?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This is not the case at all, though.

Ukraine’s problems stem from it being in a state of war with an adversary that has a larger military, larger economy and larger population.

Any debate over what level of support to provide them that isn’t one of “none” or “full” (ie: boots on the ground fighting as well as unlimited supplies and a full war economy) that would guarantee this war ended one way or another is dithering by definition, since we are kicking the final decision (to effectively back them or not) further and further down the road.

Poppycock! Ukraines problems are directly a result of the west dithering and allowing Putin to do as he likes for the last twenty years. That is the root of the problem.

 

[Ming the Merciful]

You allegedly have the military training and you keep throwing the word coward around. The Ukrainian Legion needs trainers just like you for their young conscripts.... Time to put up or shut up?

Weird and boring.

Let me guess, you're single right?

 

[tsubaki]

It absolutely isn't "wishful thinking"

You're the one going on about the Ukranian air force flying over Russia

I never said anything about that.

These are stand off munitions.

STAND OFF MUNITIONS.

They've (Russia) been using S-300 missiles for artillery.

No they really don't. It's their incompetence. They've been ripple firing plus over claiming hits.

This is the nature of an autocratic regime. Don't give the boss bad news

Look - if the Russian air defence is on its last legs / full of gaps, which is what you implied, then flying conventional aircraft over it should be a doddle.

Since it pretty clearly isn't, then one might think that releasing Storm Shadow to be used a few dozen miles further into Russia is not going to be the war-winning step you seem to think it is.

 

[Damo_1878]

Look - if the Russian air defence is on its last legs / full of gaps, which is what you implied, then flying conventional aircraft over it should be a doddle.

Since it pretty clearly isn't, then one might think that releasing Storm Shadow to be used a few dozen miles further into Russia is not going to be the war-winning step you seem to think it is.

I never even mentioned the "Ukrainian Air Force" or "flying conventional aircraft over it"

I am talking about the ability of the Russian air defence to intercept these stand off weapons, which you were saying (Russia) would "have enough to protect enough to survive any conceivable strike using these weapons from Ukraine." which is just not true. In any remote way.

Ukraine will do what it has already done with SCALP/Storm Shadow in Crimea.

Combine it in a joint drone attack to saturate and divert any existing air defences. See the attack on the Black Sea fleet headquarters building in occupied Crimea on 22 September 2023 or the strikes on the naval vessels including the submarine in dry dock.

The is wishful thinking - they’ve got enough air defence left now to make it suicidal for Ukraine to send its Air Force over or near Russia, and anything moveable is probably already out of range of the missiles we are talking about at the moment.

As for “they don’t have enough to cover all areas” - they never did, given the size of the country. They’ll have enough to protect enough to survive any conceivable strike using these weapons from Ukraine.

Saturday 23 September 2023 10:05, UK

Moment Ukraine hits Russia's Black Sea navy HQ using British and French missiles

One serviceman was missing following the attack in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, said the Russian defence ministry, which earlier stated he had been killed.

news.sky.com

 

[tsubaki]

I never even mentioned the "Ukrainian Air Force" or "flying conventional aircraft over it"

I am talking about the ability of the Russian air defence to intercept these stand off weapons, which you were saying (Russia) would "have enough to protect enough to survive any conceivable strike using these weapons from Ukraine." which is just not true. In any remote way.

Ukraine will do what it has already done with SCALP/Storm Shadow in Crimea.

Combine it in a joint drone attack to saturate and divert any existing air defences. See the attack on the Black Sea fleet headquarters building in occupied Crimea on 22 September 2023 or the strikes on the naval vessels including the submarine in dry dock.



Saturday 23 September 2023 10:05, UK

Moment Ukraine hits Russia's Black Sea navy HQ using British and French missiles

One serviceman was missing following the attack in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, said the Russian defence ministry, which earlier stated he had been killed.

news.sky.com

This is such a crazy conversation.

Russian air defence in Crimea (and the rest of the Ukrainian territories they have occupied) do take down these missiles - not all of them, but enough. They are not on their last legs, by any means - which is what I am trying to tell you about the Ukrainian AF. If the Russians were on their last legs, full of gaps, running out of ammunition etc etc then the Ukrainians would be much more aggressive with their aircraft. That they are not should tell you that this is not a matter of waltzing over there with aircraft, or stand off missiles, and be able to do what they want.

Look at your own post here for proof of that - you are calling for a joint drone attack to saturate and divert any existing air defences. If that is what is required, then surely even you must acknowledge that those defences exist and are capable of repelling an attack if those measures are not taken?

 

[Damo_1878]

This is such a crazy conversation.

Russian air defence in Crimea (and the rest of the Ukrainian territories they have occupied) do take down these missiles - not all of them, but enough. They are not on their last legs, by any means - which is what I am trying to tell you about the Ukrainian AF. If the Russians were on their last legs, full of gaps, running out of ammunition etc etc then the Ukrainians would be much more aggressive with their aircraft. That they are not should tell you that this is not a matter of waltzing over there with aircraft, or stand off missiles, and be able to do what they want.

Look at your own post here for proof of that - you are calling for a joint drone attack to saturate and divert any existing air defences. If that is what is required, then surely even you must acknowledge that those defences exist and are capable of repelling an attack if those measures are not taken?

The drones are low cost and have lower "mass" (warhead size)

The drones act as a decoy

These stand off weapons are expensive and bunker penetrators

Out of the two you want the Russians to go for the drones decoys

I suggest you go watch that Perun video I posted earlier. It's over an hour long

It's hard having a conversation with someone clearly just not understanding what tactics are employed in Ukraine

I don't have the time to explain it to you

 

[davek]

Looks like Biden and Starmer backed down from granting Ukraine permission to use long range weapons in Russia.

Wise move if that's the case.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Looks like Biden and Starmer backed down from granting Ukraine permission to use long range weapons in Russia.

Wise move if that's the case.

They were always going to. Everything Biden has said has been towards allowing Ukraine to do it, but keep US missiles out of it.

Starmer will follow that lead.

 

[davek]

They were always going to. Everything Biden has said has been towards allowing Ukraine to do it, but keep US missiles out of it.

Starmer will follow that lead.

Starmer is a stooge of the US intelligence community and is using his position as leader of a key American ally to push their agenda with this outgoing president.

No major western European nation would go near a provocation to Russia like that, but he has.

He is a very sinister PM.

 

[PhilM]

I think we all know that the eventual, logical compromise will be that the west allow Ukraine to use their weapons to strike deeper into Russia with set criteria.

Locations that produce military hardware, logistical hubs, arms depots and air defence will become valid targets, which will only help tighten the squeeze on Russia.

Attacking key/high-ranking command and control will be out of bounds due to the possibility of escalation through striking a key member of government etc.

In terms of the Russian red lines, of course they will exist, and I suspect the west know what they truly are through a combination of intelligence and dialogue.

The bluff and sabre-rattling previously shown by Putin is not for the west, but rather domestic consumption - he knows it, and we know it.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

This is such a crazy conversation.

Russian air defence in Crimea (and the rest of the Ukrainian territories they have occupied) do take down these missiles - not all of them, but enough. They are not on their last legs, by any means - which is what I am trying to tell you about the Ukrainian AF. If the Russians were on their last legs, full of gaps, running out of ammunition etc etc then the Ukrainians would be much more aggressive with their aircraft. That they are not should tell you that this is not a matter of waltzing over there with aircraft, or stand off missiles, and be able to do what they want.

Look at your own post here for proof of that - you are calling for a joint ey have adrone attack to saturate and seriously divert any existing air defences. If that is what is required, then surely even you must acknowledge that those defences exist and are capable of repelling an attack if those measures are not

Those air defences do exist but they have been degraded to a point where there are significant gaps in radar coverage and missile interception zones. They have almost no AEW/command and control capability.

There are however MANPADS and less capable Pantsir/BuK systems present but these are Shorad and will be situated close to key installations.

Ukraine doesn’t fly planes in Russian territory as it doesn’t have an air tanker solution so range is the reason why.

Cruise and ballistic missiles are stealthy and GPS/EW resistant plus you program the cruise missiles to avoid radar coverage on their flight to the target.

Believe it or not Russia is exposed here, now it’s time to let the Ukraine exploit those deficiencies.