Current Affairs Ukraine

[edge]

Tactically this is yet another absolute disaster for Russia. How on earth have Ukraine been able to just wander this deep into Russia unchallenged?

I mean, it’s good for Ukraine don’t get me wrong, but it’s mind boggling how it’s been this easy

They will do it again somewhere else I bet after this one.
Keep the Russians on the hop , and having to second guess we're to keep troops.

 

[davek]

Pokrovski falling to the Russians.

That'll be a game changer wont it?

 

[TrachyBlue]

There's very little slagging (ahem) by me at all, so how this was cooked up is a bit of a mystery.

Stay on topic please.

 

[PITA]

Not allowing Ukraine to take the fight to their invaders will prolong the conflict and cause more suffering. Therefore your naive views are mute.

As for your claims on Al-Qaeda. Give examples. Because you're clearly referring to ISIS. They got western equipment they captured from the Iraqi army which was highly corrupt. Nothing to do with the west. Even the evidence you cite is conflated and merely to reinforce your existing views

Moot.

 

[PITA]

On the first point- yes I've thought it through, you just disagree and that's fine.

On your second point- Ukraine has every right to push Russian forces back out of Ukraine. I still don't think British & US weapons should be used though. It makes us responsible for life lost and heightens global tensions. I also never said peace talks should be done with Putin. He probably couldn't anyway because of the arrest warrant. In peace talks you send delegations. But you need de-escalation first.

On your third point- Firing missiles at Russian troops within Ukrainian territory in itself won't push them back. You'd need the lay of the land and possible civilian casualties. I can only say in my opinion I think it's wrong.

On your last para- The borders should be as it were in the Budapest Memorandum. Predicting the order of events though leading to peace talks is like lottery numbers. Ideally? De-escalation, followed by peace talks/UN-led ceasfire, UN-assisted restoration of democracy to Russia post-Putin with blue helmets, as there was in East Timor.

The only person responsible is the despicable Putin.

 

[Tipp blue]

Tactically this is yet another absolute disaster for Russia. How on earth have Ukraine been able to just wander this deep into Russia unchallenged?

I mean, it’s good for Ukraine don’t get me wrong, but it’s mind boggling how it’s been this easy

That's Russisn tactics, all they can do as an army is charge forward en masse with reckless abandon and every Russian shot means 1 bullet less for their enemy, if you have to defend it means using Logistics and tactics which they don't do well..

 

[Damo_1878]

They will do it again somewhere else I bet after this one.
Keep the Russians on the hop , and having to second guess we're to keep troops.

Thats what they've wanted to do all along. Manoeuvre warfare as the NATO countries were training them to do but with added- Drones and the Ukrainian twist

 

[davek]

Sounds like the Ukrainian advance has come to an end today. Not much, if any, more territorial gains to come in Kursk.

The jig is likely up on this incursion, and to stay any longer to try and secure what they have will run the risk of another Bakhmut or Avdiivka - where the Ukrainian elite allowed their men to be force fed into a meat grinder in a forlorn attempt to hold the line. I doubt they'll allow that to happen and we'll see a retreat in the following few days.

What do the 'experts' think?

 

[COYBL25]

I think you’d be better sticking to playing Risk.

 

[Prevenger17]

What do the 'experts' think?

The experts think you revelling in any Ukrainian setback makes you look like a Russian stooge

 

[Damo_1878]

I think you’d be better sticking to playing Risk.

I laughed

 

[Yarrgh]

Ugchcvtt

Sounds like the Ukrainian advance has come to an end today. Not much, if any, more territorial gains to come in Kursk.

The jig is likely up on this incursion, and to stay any longer to try and secure what they have will run the risk of another Bakhmut or Avdiivka - where the Ukrainian elite allowed their men to be force fed into a meat grinder in a forlorn attempt to hold the line. I doubt they'll allow that to happen and we'll see a retreat in the following few days.

What do the 'experts' think?

The Ukrainians threw up a big win and hit a good few military targets. As long as this can be continued at acceptable loss rate then they don't need to change anything.

We'll find out how Ukraine and Russia handle this over the next days and weeks. No one here would have predicted this counteroffensive so why speculate? So now to speculate!

If I was Russia I would dig in where they are putting in defensive works and not force any engagement -- the Ukrainians would possess a tactically worthless piece of land and suck up limited resources to hold it, whilst forcing the Ukrainians to have to use attritional tactics (if Ukraine wanted to carry on on the offensive) which would be too costly to maintain for a smaller military.

If I was Ukraine, I would quickly jink east and wreak mayhem into Belgorade oblast or west towards Belarus if the Russians were under prepared always giving an exit back to Ukraine. If the Russians were baited in and the defensive positions good then there's a big question about if it's worth to fight it out. Otherwise a retreat would be wise if attacking targets within Russia becomes more and more difficult.

 

[davek]

Ugchcvtt
The Ukrainians threw up a big win and hit a good few military targets. As long as this can be continued at acceptable loss rate then they don't need to change anything.
We'll find out how Ukraine and Russia handle this over the next days and weeks. No one here would have predicted this counteroffensive so why speculate? So now to speculate!
If I was Russia I would dig in where they are putting in defensive works and not force any engagement -- the Ukrainians would possess a tactically worthless piece of land and suck up limited resources to hold it, whilst forcing the Ukrainians to have to use attritional tactics (if Ukraine wanted to carry on on the offensive) which would be too costly to maintain for a smaller military.

If I was Ukraine, I would quickly jink east and wreak mayhem into Belgorade oblast or west towards Belarus if the Russians were under prepared always giving an exit back to Ukraine. If the Russians were baited in and the defensive positions good then there's a big question about if it's worth to fight it out. Otherwise a retreat would be wise if attacking targets within Russia becomes more and more difficult.

Isn't the difficulty there that it what they have now allows the Ukrainian's to launch attacks further into Russian territory against airfields and arms dumps etc?

There's really only one way this incursion ends: Ukrainian forces back over the border - by whatever means that happens is entirely down to Kyiv.

 

[Yarrgh]

Isn't the difficulty there that it what they have now allows the Ukrainian's to launch attacks further into Russian territory against airfields and arms dumps etc?

There's really only one way this incursion ends: Ukrainian forces back over the border - by whatever means that happens is entirely down to Kyiv.

Most of the military targets hit are those that facilitate Russia striking Ukraine. If the area is held then it could allow Ukraine to operate more freely within its own borders to support the east. There are undoubtedly more and the Ukrainians will have a good idea about what they can still target. If they withdraw, are those targets able to become reusable or replaced?

At the moment, Ukraine have a positive outcome. How they move from here is important and a withdrawal should not be seen as a defeat, though if it happens it'll be for actual military experts to work out if it was worth it.

 

[davek]

Most of the military targets hit are those that facilitate Russia striking Ukraine. If the area is held then it could allow Ukraine to operate more freely within its own borders to support the east. There are undoubtedly more and the Ukrainians will have a good idea about what they can still target. If they withdraw, are those targets able to become reusable or replaced?

At the moment, Ukraine have a positive outcome. How they move from here is important and a withdrawal should not be seen as a defeat, though if it happens it'll be for actual military experts to work out if it was worth it.

Well reports from overnight suggest that the Russians handed the Ukrainian positions in Kursk an absolute pounding and a lot of men were lost. The incursion has well and truly ground to a halt.

I think Zelensky has gone way beyond what Washington condoned, and they did that to try and force the hand of the west to allow a Ukrainian fightback as Russian forces relentlessly march on in the Donbas to Pokrovsk to cut off a major highway and put them in reach of shelling rail lines that serve as a critical supply line for Ukrainian troops.

The Kursk incursion has been a desperate move from Kyiv. They need to withdraw from Russia and get some sort of peace deal. My guess is though that as in Bakhmut and Avdiivka Zelensky and his Generals will command that expeditionary force to remain and perish in Russia. It was a suicide mission and the coming days and weeks will see thousands more Ukrainian troops lose their lives clinging onto something that cant be secured.