I haven't checked the overnight position. If Russia is going all out, then it could fall over very quickly for the Ukrainians (if it's sustainable for Russia to do so). I presume that Ukraine has not put in defensive works to withstand any major efforts from Russia compared to what we have seen in Donbass where they have forced Russia to grind it out at huge cost.
I would not be surprised if Russia takes over the vast majority of the Donbass and the US presidential elections take place. This gives a focus point for a deal and asks the US electorate who do you want in if you want the support for Ukraine to continue or a deal done. That will be a key point for a deal to be done - we shall see what we shall see.
On the last point: we all know this conflict will end very quickly if Trump gets in, but I'm not too sure the re-election of a Democratic administration is the nailed on green light for their objectives that the Ukrainians appear to think it will be.
The last week or so will underline to Harris - if it's to be her - that handing more advanced weapons over to Zelensky's regime is a slippery slope to the type of escalation no new American president would want on their plate.
I'm hopeful that this war can be settled with a peace deal once the US presidential elections are out of the way. Maybe serious talks begin before spring next year, before the re-start of any major and more damaging offensives can be launched, and we'll see Washington and Moscow thrash out a deal - if need be over the heads of the Ukrainians.
