Current Affairs Ukraine

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PKwalnuts said:
That's a very naive outlook in my opinion. What are you basing that on?
The opposite would be true given what has gone before, in terms of, Russia in the future attempting again to take more land from countries that used to be part of it.

There would be no way to enforce a buffer without Ukraine being part of Nato, unless we're relying on the goodwill and word of Russian Regime.

I hope this ends soon, it won't. Ukraine have to continue, with or without support otherwise they will let the fox take the whole henhouse.
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As I said, I wasn't claiming it was a likely outcome. I was asked what would end it so Russia doesn't re-invade.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
As part of this rout the commander of the Ru 31st Air Assault Brigade (Andrei Kondrashkin) was killed - this is significant as it confirms that the Ukes smoked the brigade HQ and backs up the claims that the brigade got a severe kicking.
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There has been talk the special forces stormed the HQ after Chechen defectors tipped them off. Plans and the like taken and supposedly a number of unmanned tanks too. From a telegram.
 
PKwalnuts said:
That's a very naive outlook in my opinion. What are you basing that on?
The opposite would be true given what has gone before, in terms of, Russia in the future attempting again to take more land from countries that used to be part of it.

There would be no way to enforce a buffer without Ukraine being part of Nato, unless we're relying on the goodwill and word of Russian Regime.

I hope this ends soon, it won't. Ukraine have to continue, with or without support otherwise they will let the fox take the whole henhouse.
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In Goebbels fantasy, Russia would have to contend with a population willing to die to liberate their country.

These are people, both men and women who are not just trained by elite NATO forces but also battle hardened and most with family, friends and homes destroyed by Putin vatniks.

In that nonsense situation and would make the IRA, ISIS and the like look like a day at the races. It'd be endless carnage with mire horrific retribution from the occupiers.

No, the only way to end this is Russia to withdraw, Putin and those behind this terrorism to be sent to the Hague and ideally disarmament.

A collapse of the federation feels inevitable as a direct result of Putin/Russias actions.
 
davek said:
That's certainly the carrot that keeps the Ukrainians in the game fighting still.

Would that be enough for them to settle this - as a lot of their territory seized is likely to remain in Russian hands.

Also, are Nato serious about Ukrainian inclusion. They promise a lot - same as the EU - but don't deliver concrete steps to the goal.
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I think a time will come when Ukraine will be faced with an agonising decision: fight on or make the very best of what they have got. A Trump return to the White House would see them abandoned. If that happens, they'll not be making any further gains and will be in an existential fight. But even if Biden wins again, there will come a time when the west will have to decide how much longer it is willing to plough such capital into Ukraine (both political and financial). The reality is the Ukrainians cannot win back their land without the continued and expanded support of the west. Once that weakens, they're going to have to make a choice.

Whether NATO are serious about Ukrainian membership will probably be determined by the US Presidential election. Ironically, it's possible a Trump win makes membership happen sooner. While I'm sure he'd love to gift the entirety of Ukraine to Putin, abandoning the Ukrainians to their fate will surely end NATO - and US hegemony forever - as the Europeans finally realise they have an unreliable partner who will throw them under a bus at the fist expedient opportunity. That would then entail the creation of an EU army. Ironically, Germany might pay it's 2% of GDP then... Just not to Trump or NATO.

If Biden wins, I think he'll also want to end this war soon enough so that his second term is not totally consumed on the Ukraine issue. I can't really see how Ukraine doesn't eventually join NATO in this scenario because the alternative leaves them with no reason to ever come to the negotiating table and it's not in Europe's interest to see the Ukrainians capitulate or be overrun.

From a European perspective - and surely from a Ukrainian, too - NATO membership trumps EU membership in the short-term. While EU membership would be transformative for the country, it will surely never see peace - and may cease to exist - without the NATO security blanket. Geopolitically, NATO membership could be an immediate outcome of any peace deal (obviously with Russia claiming its ill-gotten chunk of Ukraine). EU membership would then be possible in the longer term as it could then concentrate on meeting the membership criteria free of war and slowly moving its economy into position for joining. But I'd be certain that NATO membership would come well before EU membership.
 
Drico said:
I think a time will come when Ukraine will be faced with an agonising decision: fight on or make the very best of what they have got. A Trump return to the White House would see them abandoned. If that happens, they'll not be making any further gains and will be in an existential fight. But even if Biden wins again, there will come a time when the west will have to decide how much longer it is willing to plough such capital into Ukraine (both political and financial). The reality is the Ukrainians cannot win back their land without the continued and expanded support of the west. Once that weakens, they're going to have to make a choice.

Whether NATO are serious about Ukrainian membership will probably be determined by the US Presidential election. Ironically, it's possible a Trump win makes membership happen sooner. While I'm sure he'd love to gift the entirety of Ukraine to Putin, abandoning the Ukrainians to their fate will surely end NATO - and US hegemony forever - as the Europeans finally realise they have an unreliable partner who will throw them under a bus at the fist expedient opportunity. That would then entail the creation of an EU army. Ironically, Germany might pay it's 2% of GDP then... Just not to Trump or NATO.

If Biden wins, I think he'll also want to end this war soon enough so that his second term is not totally consumed on the Ukraine issue. I can't really see how Ukraine doesn't eventually join NATO in this scenario because the alternative leaves them with no reason to ever come to the negotiating table and it's not in Europe's interest to see the Ukrainians capitulate.

From a European perspective - and surely from a Ukrainian, too - NATO membership trumps EU membership in the short-term. While EU membership would be transformative for the country, it will surely never see peace - and may cease to exist - without the NATO security blanket. Geopolitically, NATO membership could be an immediate outcome of any peace deal (obviously with Russia claiming its chunk of Ukraine). EU membership would then be possible in the longer term as it could then concentrate on meeting the membership criteria free of war and slowly moving its economy into position for joining. But I'd be certain that NATO membership would come well before EU membership.
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Good analysis there. The US political cycle will defo impact on the war.

The other factor to weigh in on this is the China situation.

Whether Biden or Trump (or any other candidate wins the next GE there) the greater struggle for the US is in the Pacific. They are determined to isolate China as much as possible and India - and the rest of the BRICS - need courting on that score. The war in Ukraine is muddying the water in that respect as many in the global south just don't care enough about Ukraine and or see it as a hindrance to supply chains...especially food.
 
davek said:
Good analysis there. The US political cycle will defo impact on the war.

The other factor to weigh in on this is the China situation.

Whether Biden or Trump (or any other candidate wins the next GE there) the greater struggle for the US is in the Pacific. They are determined to isolate China as much as possible and India - and the rest of the BRICS - need courting on that score. The war in Ukraine is muddying the water in that respect as many in the global south just don't care enough about Ukraine and or see it as a hindrance to supply chains...especially food.
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I’m afraid I disagree with both of you.

Look at Syria as an example. The west is forcing a stalemate there because it refuses to be allowed to be seen as allowing the Russians to have a victory.

Ukraine means far more to the west than that. They’ve never recognised Crimea as Russia when it was taken bloodlessly - now with a more violent intervention they’ve got no chance of recognising it.

The only end is when one side or the other gains full control.

And I do not see the west winning this.

The idea Ukraine joins nato ever is laughable.
 
Drico said:
I think a time will come when Ukraine will be faced with an agonising decision: fight on or make the very best of what they have got. A Trump return to the White House would see them abandoned. If that happens, they'll not be making any further gains and will be in an existential fight. But even if Biden wins again, there will come a time when the west will have to decide how much longer it is willing to plough such capital into Ukraine (both political and financial). The reality is the Ukrainians cannot win back their land without the continued and expanded support of the west. Once that weakens, they're going to have to make a choice.

Whether NATO are serious about Ukrainian membership will probably be determined by the US Presidential election. Ironically, it's possible a Trump win makes membership happen sooner. While I'm sure he'd love to gift the entirety of Ukraine to Putin, abandoning the Ukrainians to their fate will surely end NATO - and US hegemony forever - as the Europeans finally realise they have an unreliable partner who will throw them under a bus at the fist expedient opportunity. That would then entail the creation of an EU army. Ironically, Germany might pay it's 2% of GDP then... Just not to Trump or NATO.

If Biden wins, I think he'll also want to end this war soon enough so that his second term is not totally consumed on the Ukraine issue. I can't really see how Ukraine doesn't eventually join NATO in this scenario because the alternative leaves them with no reason to ever come to the negotiating table and it's not in Europe's interest to see the Ukrainians capitulate or be overrun.

From a European perspective - and surely from a Ukrainian, too - NATO membership trumps EU membership in the short-term. While EU membership would be transformative for the country, it will surely never see peace - and may cease to exist - without the NATO security blanket. Geopolitically, NATO membership could be an immediate outcome of any peace deal (obviously with Russia claiming its ill-gotten chunk of Ukraine). EU membership would then be possible in the longer term as it could then concentrate on meeting the membership criteria free of war and slowly moving its economy into position for joining. But I'd be certain that NATO membership would come well before EU membership.
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Poor analysis

Basically everything you said is wrong

The west will carry the fight on indefinitely Biden or trump regardless, and Ukraine will not be in nato or the EU
 
Kev The Rat said:
I’m afraid I disagree with both of you.

Look at Syria as an example. The west is forcing a stalemate there because it refuses to be allowed to be seen as allowing the Russians to have a victory.

Ukraine means far more to the west than that. They’ve never recognised Crimea as Russia when it was taken bloodlessly - now with a more violent intervention they’ve got no chance of recognising it.

The only end is when one side or the other gains full control.

And I do not see the west winning this.

The idea Ukraine joins nato ever is laughable.
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I doing think recognition is on the table. But an accommodation with the reality - just as in 2012 with Crimea - is possible.

The American's are the key to all this.
 
davek said:
I doing think recognition is on the table. But an accommodation with the reality - just as in 2012 with Crimea - is possible.

The American's are the key to all this.
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The west has drunk the kool aid

They see this as another ideological battleground like Syria is today

You’ll see. They can’t ‘afford’ to cave in to Russia
 
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