Current Affairs Ukraine

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Much will depend on the result of the next US election .
Plausible. I now live in the very conservative south and to my knowledge there is overwhelming support to protect Ukraine but not cross over into Russia and take it to them. Toss up if Trump gets elected but very doubtful as to many forces working against him here. He like Putin will have a target on his back. I don't want to say more than I should but Crimea may be final solution for the US/West to back off.
 
Plausible. I now live in the very conservative south and to my knowledge there is overwhelming support to protect Ukraine but not cross over into Russia and take it to them. Toss up if Trump gets elected but very doubtful as to many forces working against him here. He like Putin will have a target on his back. I don't want to say more than I should but Crimea may be final solution for the US/West to back off.
I can only go on current European news but it appears the more often Trump is arrested the more his ratings rise.
 
The F16 sadly is another promise to the Ukraine like the Leopard tanks that were supposed to punch through the Russian defense lines like a knife through butter that won't perform,this from US pilots...
"Going into combat against a Su-35, even a Su-27 in contested airspace — now you’re talking about years of experience. You can’t do that with a brand-new guy who has seen everything once! You can have all the capabilities of the jet, but if the pilot doesn’t know how to use it correctly, then that’s useless. So for a pilot coming from a MiG-29, having to learn a brand-new PVI [pilot-vehicle interface] where everything looks different, use weapons that they’ve only ever read about, to give them three-months training then toss them into combat — that’s a tall order!"
The reliance of the F-16s radar to hit BVR kills over the 30 year old radars in the Su planes will be the key, if it comes to visual dogfights then the Ukrainians will lose.

But like you said, 3 months isn’t enough time to properly train pilots. That’s basic infantry lengths.
 
Let Putin get away with one nuclear strike without a major response and he's basically pulled our pants down. He'd be emboldened to take what he wants thereafter.

Whatever that major response is (and doesn't necessarily have to be nuclear) will see him removed from office before it escalates further.
Ukraine is not NATO and it is not the EU. These are the lines in the sand. On one side of that line is a likely nuclear response. On the other is...realpolitik. People don't like to make that differentiation - but it is effectively the difference between being a card-carrying member of the West and...not. The West won't admit it, but there will be no nuclear response to a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Certainly not beyond Ukraine anyway. A nuclear attack on, say, Poland or the Baltics, however, would necessitate a response in kind from NATO - or the Americans will have to accept their loss of hegemony and Russian control of eastern Europe. A nuclear attack on Germany or France means certain Armageddon.
 
The reliance of the F-16s radar to hit BVR kills over the 30 year old radars in the Su planes will be the key, if it comes to visual dogfights then the Ukrainians will lose.

But like you said, 3 months isn’t enough time to properly train pilots. That’s basic infantry lengths.
I read a piece somewhere that the latest Russian fighters have radar that has a far greater range than the F16 and there is a real danger Ukrainian pilots will be shot down before the even know they have been engaged.
"Notably, the F-16 and Mirage-2000 are fourth-generation aircraft, whereas Russia's Su-57s offer superior technical capabilities. For instance, while the F-16 radar can detect targets up to 120 kilometers away, the Su-57 radar boasts a range of 300 kilometers".
 
The reliance of the F-16s radar to hit BVR kills over the 30 year old radars in the Su planes will be the key, if it comes to visual dogfights then the Ukrainians will lose.

But like you said, 3 months isn’t enough time to properly train pilots. That’s basic infantry lengths.
I tried to edit my previous post to include the link but ran out of time.
 

Reading a more cost effective solution for the Ukrainians. Easy to fly and on par with the F-16 and SU-27 Flanker fourth generational fighters.

Estimates of SU-57 Felon Russia has between 3 to 11 as of 2022 estimate. Most likely 9 which could be operational.
 
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Reading a more cost effective solution for the Ukrainians. Easy to fly and on par with the F-16 and SU-27 Flanker fourth generational fighters.

Estimates of SU-57 Felon Russia has between 3 to 11 as of 2022 estimate. Most likely 9 which could be operational.
Fantastic aircraft, did an exercise with the Swedes and got tracked by one driving round Loch Ness and Aviemore.
 
If the F16s weren't going to make any difference to Ukr then there wouldn't have been such a kerfuffle about giving them to them. The pilots have been training since early this year and so should be operationally ready by early next year.

I havent seen very much by way of dog fighting since very early in the war and with the improvement in SAM delivery systems to Ukraine its probably a mute point.

The radar and radar avoidance measures in the F16's will probably make it harder for Russian bombers to launch cruise missiles or at least make the distance they have to be launched from bigger.

Its probably more helpful to Ukraine in the longer term than in the short term, around security.
 
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