Current Affairs Ukraine

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As I said will depend on the NATO response. Would they trade many major cities for a fifth of Ukraine?

Let Putin get away with one nuclear strike without a major response and he's basically pulled our pants down. He'd be emboldened to take what he wants thereafter.

Whatever that major response is (and doesn't necessarily have to be nuclear) will see him removed from office before it escalates further.
 
As I said will depend on the NATO response. Would they trade many major cities for a fifth of Ukraine?

Probably not, but there are a whole gamut of other responses short of a nuclear strike in return. I also don't think the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet would be likely; its an overt act of war and it would be fundamentally meaningless after a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

What the response would be is the big question; personally I think it would be more aimed at destroying the Russian economy by dropping the global oil and gas price to zero whilst also rearming and putting tactical nukes all across Europe and anywhere else that it was deemed necessary.
 
Let Putin get away with one nuclear strike without a major response and he's basically pulled our pants down. He'd be emboldened to take what he wants thereafter.

Whatever that major response is (and doesn't necessarily have to be nuclear) will see him removed from office before it escalates further.
I've a feeling the escalation would be fairly rapid. Once NATO retaliated he'd have to up his response.
 
Probably not, but there are a whole gamut of other responses short of a nuclear strike in return. I also don't think the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet would be likely; its an overt act of war and it would be fundamentally meaningless after a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

What the response would be is the big question; personally I think it would be more aimed at destroying the Russian economy by dropping the global oil and gas price to zero whilst also rearming and putting tactical nukes all across Europe and anywhere else that it was deemed necessary.
This idea that the Black Sea Fleet would be so easy to destroy might prove to be hubris on the part of NATO unless they used nuclear weapons themselves. Then Pandora's Box is well and truly open.
 
This idea that the Black Sea Fleet would be so easy to destroy might prove to be hubris on the part of NATO unless they used nuclear weapons themselves. Then Pandora's Box is well and truly open.
The Ukes took down the so-called flagship of the Russian navy with something that looked like it was knocked up in a garden shed.

The whole fleet would be underwater in minutes.
 
The Ukes took down the so-called flagship of the Russian navy with something that looked like it was knocked up in a garden shed.

The whole fleet would be underwater in minutes.
They might just have leaned something from that,let's just hope we don't have to find out. But think the scenario through. His Black Sea Fleet is totally destroyed and he just sits on his hands?
 
I've a feeling the escalation would be fairly rapid. Once NATO retaliated he'd have to up his response.

There is no winner after that part, Putin would only escalate if he is not only prepared to die but take half the world with him. If he does go megalomaniac and says launch the missiles on Washington or London or wherever, those directly around him might decide at that point to pull the trigger first on removing him rather than suffer that fate. There will be people within the inner circle with loved ones that they aren't so keen on seeing blown to bits.

It is really that simple, you chose to nuclear bomb an enemy city and effectively that call you've just made indirectly is please nuke Moscow. And that works the same if NATO made a similar strike. Sure they can fire at a mid level city and the response may be like for like escalating upwards but again no one wins from than that. Putin would likely be assassinated very quickly afterwards so it's a zero sum game for him personally.
 
There is no winner after that part, Putin would only escalate if he is not only prepared to die but take half the world with him. If he does go megalomaniac and says launch the missiles on Washington or London or wherever, those directly around him might decide at that point to pull the trigger first on removing him rather than suffer that fate. There will be people within the inner circle with loved ones that they aren't so keen on seeing blown to bits.

It is really that simple, you chose to nuclear bomb an enemy city and effectively that call you've just made indirectly is please nuke Moscow. And that works the same if NATO made a similar strike. Sure they can fire at a mid level city and the response may be like for like escalating upwards but again no one wins from than that. Putin would likely be assassinated very quickly afterwards so it's a zero sum game for him personally.
The man has proved he's a total idiot. He invades Ukraine basically because he fears Nato expansion East,what does he get, Finland and Sweden joining up to make the border he needs to defend thousands of miles longer. He's a loose cannon who holds the codes to Russia's nuclear arsenal. If you don't think he has the balls to use it well we'll have to agree to disagree on that one. Like Hitler did he has surrounded himself with acolytes who will gladly give their lives for him, Medvedev is if anything crazier than he is,don't expect an in house assassination before he goes for total world destruction.
 
There is no winner after that part, Putin would only escalate if he is not only prepared to die but take half the world with him. If he does go megalomaniac and says launch the missiles on Washington or London or wherever, those directly around him might decide at that point to pull the trigger first on removing him rather than suffer that fate. There will be people within the inner circle with loved ones that they aren't so keen on seeing blown to bits.

It is really that simple, you chose to nuclear bomb an enemy city and effectively that call you've just made indirectly is please nuke Moscow. And that works the same if NATO made a similar strike. Sure they can fire at a mid level city and the response may be like for like escalating upwards but again no one wins from than that. Putin would likely be assassinated very quickly afterwards so it's a zero sum game for him personally.
If only it was half. Russia v NATO has a predicted 97+% human extinction rate over 3 years due to the ensuing starvation due to nuclear winter. The Northern hemisphere is gone.

That's why a singular nuclear event probably wouldn't be responded to in kind. It's also why the Russians would be insane to escalate the nuclear route. Unless under direct attack themselves, there is a question as to the command being followed.
 
The proof is in the pudding. The west ARE terrified of nuclear escalation, because in the case of a nuke on Ukraine they have no real hand to play in response.

This is why we have the present back channel agreement between the US and Russia that Russia cannot, will not, be removed from Ukraine - the pantomime performance of the ‘counter - offensive’ notwithstanding.

No nuke in return for a permanent occupation of 20% of Ukraine in the areas heavily loaded with Russian speakers is a decent trade for Russia
 
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