Current Affairs Ukraine

[PhilM]

Thing is Putin can't afford to lose this war, cause this would be end of him. Also they gone too far, its too late (from their point of view) to just pick up and leave, admit of defeat would completely destroy their geopolitical standing among countries that sympathize with them and dislike Americans (China, India most importantly).

I don't think they will quit on their own, only real disastrous and complete military defeat (that would probably end with coup and Putin assassination) will lead to it, and until/if that happen, gonna still take titanic effort and a lot of bloodshed.

Also i have no doubt that China secretly support and supply them, its in their geopolitical interest to keep Russia afloat.

Which leads towards some form of compromise that somehow suits both parties because the effort required to win the war will likely have the same outcome.

While currently unpalatable to both parties, a negotiated settlement is the likely outcome. Putin has bet his economy on the west losing interest in this war.

Unfortunately for him, this now looks more and more unlikely, which puts his weakened economy (9th by GDP) versus a financially strong alliance of nations.

In terms of Chinese support, of course there'll be some support, but this is itself short-sighted as it will ultimately come at other forms of compromise.

Does Putin want to become reliant on China?

 

[Rita_Poon]

If Russia has spent the lives of those it doesn't value be them the prisoners, the mercs and the part time soldiers, at what point do they start to utilize the well trained, well equipped, and valuable elements of their armed forces? Do they have a conveyor belt of military talent ready for the meat grinder of the front, and how deep are Ukrainian reserves to match or better? Does this become a last man standing desolation?

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

If Russia has spent the lives of those it doesn't value be them the prisoners, the mercs and the part time soldiers, at what point do they start to utilize the well trained, well equipped, and valuable elements of their armed forces? Do they have a conveyor belt of military talent ready for the meat grinder of the front, and how deep are Ukrainian reserves to match or better? Does this become a last man standing desolation?

Putin’s key assault troops VDV, Spetznaz, 1st Guards tank army, 200th seperate motor rifle brigade have all been mostly malleted during the first few months of the war. He then fell back on Wagner and other PMC’s. They too got whacked and started recruiting convicts. Then the convicts got whacked and is he is now relying on mobiks and reservists.

Yes he can keep recruiting more and more but he’s lost that experience and skill. We saw that the other day when his Newly formed 72nd MR brigade got mashed in Vuhledar.

 

[Yarrgh]

If Russia has spent the lives of those it doesn't value be them the prisoners, the mercs and the part time soldiers, at what point do they start to utilize the well trained, well equipped, and valuable elements of their armed forces?

They were used. They were fairly ineffectual.

Do they have a conveyor belt of military talent ready for the meat grinder of the front, and how deep are Ukrainian reserves to match or better?

They do. Deeper than Ukraine's.

Does this become a last man standing desolation?

It's worked for centuries as s Russian tactic. Why change now?

Cynically though it's probably Donbass and stop for Putin. He probably can accept and get away with the losses to achieve that. To go any further west will cost too much. It will suck any natural resources from out of Ukrainian control - so Ukraine wouldn't be able to pay back the west so they'll get squeezed to halt too.

If Ukraine push Russia back, then a visa to Kyiv will come with a geiger counter so pretty rubbish all round.

 

[peteblue]

…

They were used. They were fairly ineffectual.

They do. Deeper than Ukraine's.

It's worked for centuries as s Russian tactic. Why change now?

Cynically though it's probably Donbass and stop for Putin. He probably can accept and get away with the losses to achieve that. To go any further west will cost too much. It will suck any natural resources from out of Ukrainian control - so Ukraine wouldn't be able to pay back the west so they'll get squeezed to halt too.

If Ukraine push Russia back, then a visa to Kyiv will come with a geiger counter so pretty rubbish all round.

Ukraine ‘gave up’ it’s nuclear arsenal for the agreed security. Not for one second do I believe that Ukraine military gave up all of its nuclear resource. I mean, would you… if Kyiv goes Geiger counter, my guess would be so does Moscow..,

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

…


Ukraine ‘gave up’ it’s nuclear arsenal for the agreed security. Not for one second do I believe that Ukraine military gave up all of its nuclear resource. I mean, would you… if Kyiv goes Geiger counter, my guess would be so does Moscow..,

No doubt at all.

 

[stipe]

…


Ukraine ‘gave up’ it’s nuclear arsenal for the agreed security. Not for one second do I believe that Ukraine military gave up all of its nuclear resource. I mean, would you… if Kyiv goes Geiger counter, my guess would be so does Moscow..,

I think they didn't had codes needed to detonate them.

Americans insisted on return and deal cause they were afraid of them ending on black market, i seriously doubt any of them ended unaccountable, simply cause USA acted as mediator

 

[Yarrgh]

…


Ukraine ‘gave up’ it’s nuclear arsenal for the agreed security. Not for one second do I believe that Ukraine military gave up all of its nuclear resource. I mean, would you… if Kyiv goes Geiger counter, my guess would be so does Moscow..,

I believe that Ukraine has the ability to produce a dirty bomb and not a classic nuclear warhead.

If NATO thought that Ukraine was prepared to make any nuclear assault on Russia even in retaliation, then they'd probably take out Ukraine as well to stop escalation.

 

[PhilM]

Ukraine war: Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war

Ukrainian data shows 824 Russians dying per day, and the UK says the trends are "likely accurate".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Lobster Johnson]

If Russia has spent the lives of those it doesn't value be them the prisoners, the mercs and the part time soldiers, at what point do they start to utilize the well trained, well equipped, and valuable elements of their armed forces? Do they have a conveyor belt of military talent ready for the meat grinder of the front, and how deep are Ukrainian reserves to match or better? Does this become a last man standing desolation?

Why would you use your rubbish troops first?

His elite got pounded in the first 3 months.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

It will a fitting end if it is these rats getting mauled at Vuhledar.

 

[PhilM]