Current Affairs Ukraine

[stipe]

According to Ukrainian estimates Russian offensive gonna start in next 10 days, close to 500 000 troops, 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 GRAD multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters in this wave.
Probably reason why Zelensky gone to Tour of Europe today, trying to quicken up sending of tanks and other military help

Ukraine Braces for Grisly Russian Offensive in the East

Russia is sending more bodies. Ukraine doesn’t have enough. And the tanks won’t arrive in time.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Military analyst outlines how NATO needs to adjust to Putin's "hybrid war"

"The U.S., EU and NATO need a strategy that is proactive and ensures that the West and Ukraine gain the initiative," the analyst wrote.

www.newsweek.com

 

[peteblue]

According to Ukrainian estimates Russian offensive gonna start in next 10 days, close to 500 000 troops, 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 GRAD multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters in this wave.
Probably reason why Zelensky gone to Tour of Europe today, trying to quicken up sending of tanks and other military help

Ukraine Braces for Grisly Russian Offensive in the East

Russia is sending more bodies. Ukraine doesn’t have enough. And the tanks won’t arrive in time.

foreignpolicy.com

When does a ‘special military operation’ become known as a war……

 

[Yarrgh]

When does a ‘special military operation’ become known as a war……

When Russian territory comes under prolonged attack?

 

[stipe]

When Russian territory comes under prolonged attack?

Probably technicality, i guess if they officially proclaim war, maybe something about production on war footing and mobilization would change.
Maybe this way they could easier throw people from Siberia and Caucasus region into meat grinder without mobilizing "true" Russians in larger numbers and people from big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.

They got very colonial attitude toward Siberians and likes of Muslim Republics like Dagestan, Chechnya and rest, its not secret they look down on them, so them dying doesn't lead to big emotional reaction in rest of Russia

 

[Yarrgh]

Probably technicality, i guess if they officially proclaim war, maybe something about production on war footing and mobilization would change.
Maybe this way they could easier throw people from Siberia and Caucasus region into meat grinder without mobilizing "true" Russians in larger numbers and people from big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.

They got very colonial attitude toward Siberians and likes of Muslim Republics like Dagestan, Chechnya and rest, its not secret they look down on them, so them dying doesn't lead to big emotional reaction in rest of Russia

Yep, that's probably very true.

 

[stipe]

So about planes, Zelensky asked you, also Germany and France today for fighter jets.
Both your country (around 100) and Germany (around 135) operate Eurofighter Typhoons as their main fighters.
France got Rafales, which are very multi-role. Plus add to that rumors about German fighters not being in good condition.

Do you think Typhoons gonna be sent to Ukraine, or is that even good idea? From what i understand Typhoons are air superiority fighters, not very good in air to ground role (unlike Rafale). Tornados (operated by UK, Germany, Italy) are also quite old and mostly retired.

Seems to me only America got a lot of fighters to spare (hundreds of F-16s and F-15s).

 

[spectateur]

So about planes, Zelensky asked you, also Germany and France today for fighter jets.
Both your country (around 100) and Germany (around 135) operate Eurofighter Typhoons as their main fighters.
France got Rafales, which are very multi-role. Plus add to that rumors about German fighters not being in good condition.

Do you think Typhoons gonna be sent to Ukraine, or is that even good idea? From what i understand Typhoons are air superiority fighters, not very good in air to ground role (unlike Rafale). Tornados (operated by UK, Germany, Italy) are also quite old and mostly retired.

Seems to me only America got a lot of fighters to spare (hundreds of F-16s and F-15s).

Whoever sends whatever, its a long time before they're operational.
Apart from people to operate them, they need maintenance back up, ammunition, spate parts etc.
It has been said that evein if the whole RAF went to Poland it would be months before they were ready for action.

 

[Aberblue]

Probably technicality, i guess if they officially proclaim war, maybe something about production on war footing and mobilization would change.
Maybe this way they could easier throw people from Siberia and Caucasus region into meat grinder without mobilizing "true" Russians in larger numbers and people from big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.

They got very colonial attitude toward Siberians and likes of Muslim Republics like Dagestan, Chechnya and rest, its not secret they look down on them, so them dying doesn't lead to big emotional reaction in rest of Russia

Russian governments have traditionally cared little for casualties in their armed forces, whether it's under the Tsars, the Communists, or, now, Putin.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

So about planes, Zelensky asked you, also Germany and France today for fighter jets.
Both your country (around 100) and Germany (around 135) operate Eurofighter Typhoons as their main fighters.
France got Rafales, which are very multi-role. Plus add to that rumors about German fighters not being in good condition.

Do you think Typhoons gonna be sent to Ukraine, or is that even good idea? From what i understand Typhoons are air superiority fighters, not very good in air to ground role (unlike Rafale). Tornados (operated by UK, Germany, Italy) are also quite old and mostly retired.

Seems to me only America got a lot of fighters to spare (hundreds of F-16s and F-15s).

Personally I don’t think the Typhoon is a good fit for Ukraines requirements.

Zelensky should be looking at the F-16 BlockC/D or the Swedish Gripen.

That being said the U.K. Typhoons (FGR4) are very capable multi-role aircraft. It’s only the older tranche 1’s that have limited air-ground capability

 

[stipe]

Russian governments have traditionally cared little for casualties in their armed forces, whether it's under the Tsars, the Communists, or, now, Putin.

If people from Moscow and St. Petersburg start dying en masse that could lead to dissatisfaction and much dangerous reaction close to center of power. "Non-Russians" from outer provinces, prisoners and poor can be easier to swallow.

 

[Tramps_mate]

According to Ukrainian estimates Russian offensive gonna start in next 10 days, close to 500 000 troops, 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 GRAD multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters in this wave.
Probably reason why Zelensky gone to Tour of Europe today, trying to quicken up sending of tanks and other military help

Ukraine Braces for Grisly Russian Offensive in the East

Russia is sending more bodies. Ukraine doesn’t have enough. And the tanks won’t arrive in time.

foreignpolicy.com

Can't the UN or NATO stop this?!

 

[PhilM]

So about planes, Zelensky asked you, also Germany and France today for fighter jets.
Both your country (around 100) and Germany (around 135) operate Eurofighter Typhoons as their main fighters.
France got Rafales, which are very multi-role. Plus add to that rumors about German fighters not being in good condition.

Do you think Typhoons gonna be sent to Ukraine, or is that even good idea? From what i understand Typhoons are air superiority fighters, not very good in air to ground role (unlike Rafale). Tornados (operated by UK, Germany, Italy) are also quite old and mostly retired.

Seems to me only America got a lot of fighters to spare (hundreds of F-16s and F-15s).

I think jets will eventually be sent (well, if Ukraine and its government survive), but it isn't going to be something that happens quickly, for many reasons.

The biggest different with armour and fast jets is their capability to strike deep into Russian territory, either by flight penetration or stand-off weapons.

Russia will see that as a game changer, and the west know this. In terms of the UK sending ex-aircraft, we've got problems with training pilots and servicing.

This is a big element of why any promises will be for long-term support rather than anything now, because ultimately it's non-committal.

However, Ukraine will be very worried as during any offensive they'll need air cover if Russia commit lots of their AF, but then again they didn't originally.

So, why would they now?

 

[stipe]

I think jets will eventually be sent (well, if Ukraine and its government survive), but it isn't going to be something that happens quickly, for many reasons.

The biggest different with armour and fast jets is their capability to strike deep into Russian territory, either by flight penetration or stand-off weapons.

Russia will see that as a game changer, and the west know this. In terms of the UK sending ex-aircraft, we've got problems with training pilots and servicing.

This is a big element of why any promises will be for long-term support rather than anything now, because ultimately it's non-committal.

However, Ukraine will be very worried as during any offensive they'll need air cover if Russia commit lots of their AF, but then again they didn't originally.

So, why would they now?

Seems that Russians (and Ukrainians) mostly use old workhorse SU-25 (ground attacker) en masse and for ground support. Russian airforce modern fighters fly patrols in Russian/Belarus airspace and launching missiles at Ukrainian planes from long range. Ukrainians got no that capability so they are at huge disadvantage (plus of course numbers).
But yeah seem that Russians use their airforce very sparingly, air war very muted so far, but both side got enormous amount of anti-aircraft defense, so maybe thats why.

 

[PhilM]

Seems that Russians (and Ukrainians) mostly use old workhorse SU-25 (ground attacker) en masse and for ground support. Russian airforce modern fighters fly patrols in Russian/Belarus airspace and launching missiles at Ukrainian planes from long range. Ukrainians got no that capability so they are at huge disadvantage (plus of course numbers).

Aye, which reduces the risk to their modern arsenal. Yet, there's been valid questions about how effective their supposed superior jets actually are.

Russia has been very hesitant to commit them, even at the start of the war, so you'd ask yourself why when they should make the difference.

Maybe, they know they are irreplaceable (jets and pilots), and they aren't as superior as they may want us to believe they are - e.g. they're vulnerable.