Current Affairs Ukraine

[stipe]

Aye, which reduces the risk to their modern arsenal. Yet, there's been valid questions about how effective their supposed superior jets actually are.

Russia has been very hesitant to commit them, even at the start of the war, so you'd ask yourself why when they should make the difference.

Maybe, they know they are irreplaceable (jets and pilots), and they aren't as superior as they may want us to believe they are - e.g. they're vulnerable.

Yeah, just seem very passive from their side so far, considering numbers and hundreds and hundreds of planes.

Like take Bakhmut for example, months of bloody combat and i don't remember ever reading that Russians used airforce in any large numbers to try to soften Ukrainian defense. Like remember Aleppo few years ago (or Americans bombing ISIL capital of Raqqa), it was opposite

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Yeah, just seem very passive from their side so far, considering numbers and hundreds and hundreds of planes.

Like take Bakhmut for example, months of bloody combat and i don't remember ever reading that Russians used airforce in any large numbers to try to soften Ukrainian defense. Like remember Aleppo few years ago (or Americans bombing ISIL capital of Raqqa), it was opposite

Tells you a lot about the SAM (AD) situation along the front lines.

Neither side has achieved air superiority let alone air supremacy. Russia has never really developed or practised an effective SEAD/DEAD policy and this is very evident in their inability to plan and execute CAS missions in support of their advances.

 

[PhilM]

Yeah, just seem very passive from their side so far, considering numbers and hundreds and hundreds of planes.

Like take Bakhmut for example, months of bloody combat and i don't remember ever reading that Russians used airforce in any large numbers to try to soften Ukrainian defense. Like remember Aleppo few years ago (or Americans bombing ISIL capital of Raqqa), it was opposite

You'd suspect they're worried about Ukraine's AD capability and the potential for the west to get hold of their equipment. Likewise, the T-14 hasn't been to Ukraine.

Also, Russia is going to struggle financially for a long time after this war, so the cost to replace their limited numbers of more advanced hardware is prohibitve.

Another note, have a look at the video with the ol’ Land Cruisers - Hereford boys. They weren’t messing around.

 

[stipe]

You'd suspect they're worried about Ukraine's AD capability and the potential for the west to get hold of their equipment. Likewise, the T-14 hasn't been to Ukraine.

Also, Russia is going to struggle financially for a long time after this war, so the cost to replace their limited numbers of more advanced hardware is prohibitve.

Another note, have a look at the video with the ol’ Land Cruisers - Hereford boys. They weren’t messing around.

I seen videos of Armata couple of month ago being showed off on polygons, but i think they only got limited amount of them built and they are very expensive. It would probably be smart (for them) to send few in warzone, real combat situation is probably best test for such a vehicle, though of course picture of it being blown is bad propaganda.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

The grand Russian offensive is going well I see!

Just north of Vuhledar two battalions of the 72nd Motor rifle brigade supported by tanks and bmp’s advanced on Ukranian positions and got absolutely malleted.

31 tanks and armoured vehicles destroyed. 400 dead and loads more captured.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...nsive-just-ground-to-a-halt-outside-vuhledar/

 

[dublinbluenose]

He invaded 3 days after the last one

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

He invaded 3 days after the last one

He has been talking about a big surprise on the 24th for a long time now. Slightly concerning.

 

[stipe]

He has been talking about a big surprise on the 24th for a long time now. Slightly concerning.

I guess this could be official declaration of war and switch of entire country to war footing (factories and other stuff churning out military equipment, missiles, tanks etc...)

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Yarrgh]

I think I'll be leaving news about NATO and Moldovan airspace for NATO and Moldova.

I don't think anyone is worrying about Moldova and everyone seems to have forgotten about Transnistra

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[PhilM]

I guess this could be official declaration of war and switch of entire country to war footing (factories and other stuff churning out military equipment, missiles, tanks etc...)

Which would be, ultimately, a huge mistake for Putin. While he may feel that it's vital to win this conflict for his own power and prestige, it would ruin Russia.

The Russian economy has been and will continue to be overestimated, and although large in physical size it's population density doesn't match this size.

For Putin to push their economy further and deeper than it cope for what is in essence a glorified vanity project*, it would eventually undermine him even further.

*It's not ignoring the potential financial benefits, but these do not match the cost of the Special Operation on the Russian economy.

 

[stipe]

Which would be, ultimately, a huge mistake for Putin. While he may feel that it's vital to win this conflict for his own power and prestige, it would ruin Russia.

The Russian economy has been and will continue to be overestimated, and although large in physical size it's population density doesn't match this size.

For Putin to push their economy further and deeper than it cope for what is in essence a glorified vanity project*, it would eventually undermine him even further.

*It's not ignoring the potential financial benefits, but these do not match the cost of the Special Operation on the Russian economy.

Thing is Putin can't afford to lose this war, cause this would be end of him. Also they gone too far, its too late (from their point of view) to just pick up and leave, admit of defeat would completely destroy their geopolitical standing among countries that sympathize with them and dislike Americans (China, India most importantly).

I don't think they will quit on their own, only real disastrous and complete military defeat (that would probably end with coup and Putin assassination) will lead to it, and until/if that happen, gonna still take titanic effort and a lot of bloodshed.

Also i have no doubt that China secretly support and supply them, its in their geopolitical interest to keep Russia afloat.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]