Current Affairs Ukraine

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Germany doesn’t have to send tanks - they only need to allow other European nations to ship their own stock of Leopards.

For the life of me I can’t find a reason for Germany blocking their export. Rheinmetal must be fuming.
Be for historical reasons why Germany are reluctant to be seen to lead in any military intervention. And as for other countries sending their Abraham's etc. Be the concern of just one falling into Russian hands and being reversed engineered. Time to stop Russia was Crimea, we failed miserably.

This has not aged well-

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...-days-of-big-tank-battles-in-europe-were-over
 
Sorry I’m confused. The Leopards I’m talking about are not the ones from Germany’s inventory but the ones sold to other European countries.

It’s these countries that want to ship the tanks to Ukraine but are currently being blocked by German export licenses.

no-ones directly asking Germany for tanks merely for them to rip up the export license restrictions.
This is the international norm. Countries buy tanks for their own use. They need the consent of the manufacturing country before exporting to another country. Nothing unusual in this at all. It is designed to protect the manufacturer from becoming embroiled in conflicts it is not directly party to. By ripping up the export licenses, some in Germany feel that Germany would effectively be putting a target on its head. There is, in effect, little difference to doing this than sending your own tanks directly to Ukraine in such a case. So, this is the rationale.
 
Well, why should the Americans, always have to lead? Why not Germany grow a pair and do some leading? There's zero chance that the addition of some German tanks to the Ukraine forces, would allow them to sweep away all Russian resistance and retake Crimea, so no more chance of tanks escalating the war than 101 other things that might cheese off the screwball Putin.

I don't know whether it's a desire not to burn bridges with their mate Russia, misplaced angst over WWII, or sheer cowardice, but this German heel-dragging is just pitiful, and hugely damaging to their reputation in the West.
Why should the Americans always lead? Because the Americans are the self-appointed and de-facto single military superpower in the world. They have to lead. They demand to lead.

Many in Germany fear nuclear war with Russia. It's as simple as that for most people who oppose the tanks delivery. Many of them are misguided. Some of those are effectively brainwashed from their time in the GDR.

Be careful what you wish for. A Germany truly leading would, most likely, be a much more assertive nation and far more overbearing in terms of the European Union that its detractors like to imagine is currently the case. A bit like the Americans tend to be in foreign policy, in fact...
 
Germany probably believes that Russia, by dint of European geography, will always have to be reckoned with. So, yes, it's an elephant in the room - but not in the German room. That's largely acknowledged here.

They are absolutely correct to believe that, and of course the best challenge to Putin's regime is to fairly engage with Russia as a whole. The very last thing we should be doing is refusing to have anything to do with the country.

On at least one level the Russian invasion is entirely understandable (which is obviously not to say excuseable) - a Ukraine that becomes less corrupt and less unequal, and sees its population gradually improve its quality of life, is a serious threat to the stability of the Russian regime.
 
They are absolutely correct to believe that, and of course the best challenge to Putin's regime is to fairly engage with Russia as a whole. The very last thing we should be doing is refusing to have anything to do with the country.

On at least one level the Russian invasion is entirely understandable (which is obviously not to say excuseable) - a Ukraine that becomes less corrupt and less unequal, and sees its population gradually improve its quality of life, is a serious threat to the stability of the Russian regime.
It's a more nuanced situation here in Germany than Kraut-bashers want to acknoweldge. Many Germans want nothing to do with Russia again - but are also not in favour of sending tanks. Many Germans want maximum financial and humanitarian support for Ukraine - and are prepared to swallow big energy bill rises - but do not want an escalation that embroils NATO. In fact, this spotlight on German "resistance" to sending tanks is very convenient for the Americans as it takes the spotlight off their own sensible resistance to a NATO-Russia conflict. I mean, if they were truly in favour of sending tanks to Ukraine - including German tanks - they would send a few of their own to break the logjam. But they're having their bluff called by the Germans.

As for the Russians, they have demolished their own lucrative energy market in Germany. The Germans have, effectively, already moved on. They won't be making themselves dependent on Russian gas again. Different countries have different interests in how all of this plays out. It's not surprising that there are disagreements on the way forward.
 
They are absolutely correct to believe that, and of course the best challenge to Putin's regime is to fairly engage with Russia as a whole. The very last thing we should be doing is refusing to have anything to do with the country.

On at least one level the Russian invasion is entirely understandable (which is obviously not to say excuseable) - a Ukraine that becomes less corrupt and less unequal, and sees its population gradually improve its quality of life, is a serious threat to the stability of the Russian regime.
But that's not the point. The issue @Drico isn't 'Kraut bashing', but rather highlighting the somewhat unpleasant reliance on Russia that emerged.

Russia will always have to be reckoned with, however I am less confident in the belief that Germany has moved on from this convenient economic relationship.

Right now, it's a different kettle of fish, whereas looking for the future an olive branch (not sending offensive tanks) is something that may reap financial rewards.

Yet, the risk of not supporting Ukraine with armour has to be considered as well, because the fall of Ukraine could easily have its own dire consequences.

Again, not now as Russia will struggle for the next decade at least, but an emboldened Russia and its cronies is a legitimate threat to Eastern Europe.

It's not about destroying Russia nor is it saying there should be no engagement, yet within it is best to secure a position where they'll come to the table.

Without armour, Ukraine's sovereignty is at real risk and an emboldened Russia, with its war justified from their perspective, is not good for Germany.
 
I've also been pondering on the point made by some that we should not be questioning German and its Leopard II stance, while the US has yet to provide Abrams.

Personally, I feel it's an example of false equivalence. If possible, I think the US should provide Abrams, and let us not ignore the resources already provided.

However, is it not reasonable for the US to take a stance that a war on the European continent should at least be equally supported by its European allies?

Attempting to obtain stronger commitments from the likes of Germany before it provides even more of its hardware isn't an unexpected scenario.

Maybe the deflection is less by the US and more from those closer to home.

 
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