EFCthechosenone
Player Valuation: £500k
Scholz ??
Current Affairs Ukraine
- Thread starter Mutzo Nutzo
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Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
You know, fashionable as it is in some quarters to bash Germany, all the Americans have to do is send a few of their own tanks - whether they are gas guzzlers or difficult to operate or not. If they do that, Germany will send its. But it's remarkable how difficult it is for the US to send its tanks. The French, too, are remarkably coy about sending theirs, finding really plausible reasons for why they can't.
As for the far-right nationalist government in Warsaw, their bluff has been called. There is a lot of big talk in Poland (it's election year, and Kraut-bashing plays well to the backwoodsmen who compose their constituency), but let's see what they do now.
The line of thought that is common here in Germany is that tanks could escalate this war to nuclear. Germany is adamant that "Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win" - but that does not mean that they favour the "Ukraine must win and Russia must lose" line. Why? A defeated Russia becomes even more unpredictable and could go nuclear when humiliated. Also, the status of Crimea is not something that Germany wants to risk a nuclear war for - whatever about the rest of Ukraine.
Whether one buys this thinking or not, people would do well to remember one thing. All of this talk from certain quarters that Germany should lead, Germany should spend big on its military and hulk up to its actual size is all well and good. But the opposite side of that coin is that a militarised Germany will no longer be "one among equals" deferring leadership to others. No, basic German political reality will demand that Germany also punches its weight politically/militarily on the continent - and not just financially, which is where it has restricted itself to since WW2. If Poland has an issue with the current Germany, they might want to be very careful what they wish for. Some of those Panzers don't have a reverse gear...
As for the far-right nationalist government in Warsaw, their bluff has been called. There is a lot of big talk in Poland (it's election year, and Kraut-bashing plays well to the backwoodsmen who compose their constituency), but let's see what they do now.
The line of thought that is common here in Germany is that tanks could escalate this war to nuclear. Germany is adamant that "Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win" - but that does not mean that they favour the "Ukraine must win and Russia must lose" line. Why? A defeated Russia becomes even more unpredictable and could go nuclear when humiliated. Also, the status of Crimea is not something that Germany wants to risk a nuclear war for - whatever about the rest of Ukraine.
Whether one buys this thinking or not, people would do well to remember one thing. All of this talk from certain quarters that Germany should lead, Germany should spend big on its military and hulk up to its actual size is all well and good. But the opposite side of that coin is that a militarised Germany will no longer be "one among equals" deferring leadership to others. No, basic German political reality will demand that Germany also punches its weight politically/militarily on the continent - and not just financially, which is where it has restricted itself to since WW2. If Poland has an issue with the current Germany, they might want to be very careful what they wish for. Some of those Panzers don't have a reverse gear...
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Germany doesn’t have to send tanks - they only need to allow other European nations to ship their own stock of Leopards.
For the life of me I can’t find a reason for Germany blocking their export. Rheinmetal must be fuming.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
They are blocking their export because they refuse to go it alone without the Americans. The Americans can remove this "excuse" or reason by sending a few of their own tanks - or allowing others to export theirs. But, for whatever tremendously plausible reason, this just hasn't happened. When it does, Germany will almost certainly move. Germany is ensuring that if the export or delivery of its tanks DOES escalate the war in a terrible way, the Americans will also be on the hook. After all, the Germans depend on the Americans for nuclear deterrence, too.
There is also a sense that Germany has taken a huge economic hit by having to wean itself off cheap Russian energy (a consequence of its own choices, for sure), and American energy companies are charging them four to five times what they charger their own domestic customers for the alternative supply. In other words, this war is very profitable for the Americans and they are openly profiting from German woes - self-inflicted or otherwise. So, Germany will not naively jump for the Yanks in ways other allies with "special relationships" might.
There's well over a million Ukrainian refugees in Germany. One family has moved in next door to me here in Berlin. The idea that Germany is doing nothing to help is nonsense. Only Poland has taken in more people. And this at a time when there are huge shortages of kindergarten and school places and a housing crisis. So, while many Germans are in favour of sending tanks, many others would prefer to send military and humanitarian aid. It's not an open and shut case. But, as I said, people need to be careful what they wish for. A militarised Germany assuming leadership will be a far more assertive beast in international politics. Many of those calling for her leadership now will really not be so keen to see it happen when it eventually does.
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I still can’t come round to the German viewpoint regarding escalation due to shipment of tanks - that line has already been crossed with the UK’s decision to ship CR2’s so that argument is now mute.
The US is now shipping over 100 Bradley’s and 90 striker afv’s. Sweden is shipping CV90’s. The German stance just doesn’t hold up.
Not saying they haven’t shipped HW and support for Ukraine and I’m well aware of the support Germany gives to Uke refugees - just think they should allow countries like Poland and the Netherlands to ship their stock of spare Leopards to Ukraine and in doing so potentially end this horrible war.
Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
The UK has promised to deliver tanks - it has not delivered them yet. This is a critical difference.
The German stance stands up pretty well to me living here in Germany. Why? The Bradleys are not main battle tanks. The Abrams are. The Germans have already agreed to send Marder combat vehicles - their equivalent of the Bradley. When the Abrams are delivered, Germany's resistance to sending Leopards will be eroded.
As I said, this argument all ends if the Americans send a few Abrams. But for some strange reason the Americans appear to think the Germans should shoulder the full risk of any escalation that results. Living here in Berlin, I can see the German point of view. Unlike the Americans, Germans know what it is like to have their country utterly destroyed. They also know - like the Americans, in this case - what it is like to be the aggressor. I'm sure the Germans will eventually move. How fast depends on the Americans.
Sorry I’m confused. The Leopards I’m talking about are not the ones from Germany’s inventory but the ones sold to other European countries.
It’s these countries that want to ship the tanks to Ukraine but are currently being blocked by German export licenses.
no-ones directly asking Germany for tanks merely for them to rip up the export license restrictions.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Germany has leached off the military support of the USA and U.K. since WW2. They have been assisted to rebuild their economy while ignoring reparations from countries such as Poland. Under Merkel they cosied up to Russia and played off the rest of Europe selling their products while using the Euro to keep their own prices down. They have consistently done nothing for Europe and everything they could for themselves, even that idiot Trump could see what they were doing. They pushed for a new gas line from Russia, purely for their own good, against the wishes of the EU and USA. Now they have been asked to provide tanks they prevaricate and try to use any excuse they can not to do so, and even worse they refuse permission for other countries to do so. Scholz is a disgrace and Germany should be ashamed. There comes a time in every countries history where they have to stand up. History, as usual I’m afraid, will not be kind to Germany……
Glasshalffull
Player Valuation: £10m
Well, why should the Americans, always have to lead? Why not Germany grow a pair and do some leading? There's zero chance that the addition of some German tanks to the Ukraine forces, would allow them to sweep away all Russian resistance and retake Crimea, so no more chance of tanks escalating the war than 101 other things that might cheese off the screwball Putin.
I don't know whether it's a desire not to burn bridges with their mate Russia, misplaced angst over WWII, or sheer cowardice, but this German heel-dragging is just pitiful, and hugely damaging to their reputation in the West.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Absolutely…….
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Full Metal Torture
Over the recent New Year's holidays, Private Andrei Sychyov's superiors tied him to a chair and beat him continuously for hours and hours, taking breaks only to sustain their drinking binge.
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peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Full Metal Torture
Over the recent New Year's holidays, Private Andrei Sychyov's superiors tied him to a chair and beat him continuously for hours and hours, taking breaks only to sustain their drinking binge.
Animals, no wonder their army behaves as it does and is also as useless as it is……
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
Full Metal Torture
Over the recent New Year's holidays, Private Andrei Sychyov's superiors tied him to a chair and beat him continuously for hours and hours, taking breaks only to sustain their drinking binge.
Those horrors largely went away when they switched to one-year terms of conscription service and more contract soldiers.
The elephant in the room: Germany still doesn’t want to completely alienate Russia.
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