Current Affairs Ukraine

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It’s not as simple as that.
its not binary.
the Russian economy needs to be surgically hit rather than a slash and burn approach. Boot Russia out of SWIFT and you do serious harm to many other economies.
i think hitting powerful oligarchs would be far more effective than the duma who may as well be cardboard cutouts.

Do you actually believe that those sanctions are part of a grand masterplan to "surgically hit" Russia?

I certainly dont. Putin is probably laughing at them.

Oligarchs are NOT going to be more effective than either the Federation or the Duma in pushing any narrative. They represent the actual people of Russia and of course alot will have bribes offshore -- that should be a target.

Have you not seen what happens to Oligarchs when they cross Putin lol
 
Do you actually believe that those sanctions are part of a grand masterplan to "surgically hit" Russia?

I certainly dont. Putin is probably laughing at them.

Oligarchs are NOT going to be more effective than either the Federation or the Duma in pushing any narrative. They represent the actual people of Russia and of course alot will have bribes offshore -- that should be a target.

Have you not seen what happens to Oligarchs when they cross Putin lol
The same thing that happens to members of the Duma but the oligarchs have far more to lose.
And yes, I believe the sanctions are surgical and will be ramped up.
 
Not sure why Oligarchs being penalised is going to somehow pressure Putin?

As far as I can see, the members of both the Duma and the Federation have not been targeted -- which are the bodies who can affect change.

Slowly processed sanctions leading to slow burning results means a lengthly impact on Russia. This is NOT going to change anything in the short-mid term which is precisely when results are required.

Showing "restraint" in the face of a tyrant is certainly NOT what should be the outcome following claims of 'supporting and standing by' Ukraine.

What I believe should have happened:

--Instant cut off from SWIFT

--All Russian non-resident accounts frozen across all NATO jurisdictions.

-- Legislation to cut ALL trade with Russia for the next 10 years (minimum) being called to a vote

-- All members of the Federation and the Duma who support this invasion are blacklisted from each NATO jurisdiction with accounts frozen for a specific time period. If they have not opposed the invasion by that point all offshore assets are seized.


These measures (or similar) should have been enforced.

At the moment its nothing more than a slap on the arse with a wet fish.

Truly pathetic.
The problem with economic sanctions always has been that the nations doing the punishing also punish themselves. Unlike the authoritarian countries that they slap with sanctions, the countries doing the punishing are largely accountable to voters, and the voters know that the politicians are responsible for the pain that is caused.

It's like having two twins, conjoined at the torso. The twin on the left gets angry with the one on the right, and screams, "If you don't stop what you're doing, I'll cut off your arm!" The one on the right looks back and says, "Dude, you'd essentially be cutting your arm off too." The one on the left screams "I don't care!" but now has to somehow convince the twin on the right that he will actually go through with it.

It's hard to round up support for sanctions with real bite once we start talking about the largest players in the international system. Countries like South Africa, Iran and North Korea can be cut off, because the price is fairly low. A country like Russia poses more of a challenge, and cutting out a player like China or the United States would cause global economic chaos.

The measures that you're talking about are all doable. Some bad things happen as a result of all of them. The SWIFT cutoff (and trade embargo) drives up oil, gas and rare earth prices. The frozen accounts represent the risk of costly litigation coming from Russian citizens who had nothing to do with this outcome. The trade embargo also hurts businesses that export to Russia. The political pressure on the Duma would rightfully be condemned as unacceptable interference in sovereignty, and sets a dangerous precedent that could lead to reprisals later.

As you point out, what we saw today bears no resemblance to the measures you propose, which gives the lie to Biden's claims that there would be incredibly harsh sanctions. It leaves him looking like he did not take the temperature of his allies before opening his mouth, which is not a shock to those of us that have been watching him for decades. He often verbally shoots from the hip and asks questions later.
 
The same thing that happens to members of the Duma but the oligarchs have far more to lose.
And yes, I believe the sanctions are surgical and will be ramped up.

There are two types of people in Putin's inner circle. The men with the guns and the men with the money.

The men with the money (oligarchs) I very much doubt had anything or very little to do with this.

The men with the guns can only be opposed by the people...who are represented by the Federation and the Duma.
The problem with economic sanctions always has been that the nations doing the punishing also punish themselves. Unlike the authoritarian countries that they slap with sanctions, the countries doing the punishing are largely accountable to voters, and the voters know that the politicians are responsible for the pain that is caused.

It's like having two twins, conjoined at the torso. The twin on the left gets angry with the one on the right, and screams, "If you don't stop what you're doing, I'll cut off your arm!" The one on the right looks back and says, "Dude, you'd essentially be cutting your arm off too." The one on the left screams "I don't care!" but now has to somehow convince the twin on the right that he will actually go through with it.

It's hard to round up support for sanctions with real bite once we start talking about the largest players in the international system. Countries like South Africa, Iran and North Korea can be cut off, because the price is fairly low. A country like Russia poses more of a challenge, and cutting out a player like China or the United States would cause global economic chaos.

The measures that you're talking about are all doable. Some bad things happen as a result of all of them. The SWIFT cutoff (and trade embargo) drives up oil, gas and rare earth prices. The frozen accounts represent the risk of costly litigation coming from Russian citizens who had nothing to do with this outcome. The trade embargo also hurts businesses that export to Russia. The political pressure on the Duma would rightfully be condemned as unacceptable interference in sovereignty, and sets a dangerous precedent that could lead to reprisals later.

As you point out, what we saw today bears no resemblance to the measures you propose, which gives the lie to Biden's claims that there would be incredibly harsh sanctions. It leaves him looking like he did not take the temperature of his allies before opening his mouth, which is not a shock to those of us that have been watching him for decades. He often verbally shoots from the hip and asks questions later.

Thats a lot of waffle without actually making any points.
 
We have failed the people of Ukraine badly. We in the west are total and utter bottlers imo.

We aren’t. Ukraine is not, sadly, a part of NATO and doing the only thing we know might stop this in its tracks is going to risk an apocalypse.

It may be too late to help Ukraine, but we urgently need to sort our own stuff out whilst sanctions are given time to work. That means most importantly improving, expanding and integrating militaries across the continent so that we can deal with whatever he does next.

It also means getting rid of those in our politics who Russia support (and who continue to support Russia); these people are a security risk. Allied to that is the urgent need to stop how money “influences” (to put the most polite spin on it) politics, as we’ve clearly got all manner of loon and evil groups paying people here to sow discord and hate in our societies and divide us from each other.

As for Biden, yes he didn’t go far enough yesterday and yes as a President he has so far been a disappointment. However I don’t think he is in the pay of / actively supported by the state that’s just invaded another one so to me that is a huge plus.
 
Kinda insane how low numbers of casualties are in modern wars (relatively speaking).

In 1914, also on battlefields of Ukraine (Galicia), in just first month of war from August to September, Austro-Hungarian army suffered 400 000 casualties while Russians around 300 000
I think the First World War is really the outlier with just how HIGH the casualty numbers were. Soldiers weren’t dying on battlefields in those numbers before, and haven’t really since.

The wall along the front of Père Lachaise cemetery in Paris has the names of all the Parisians who died in the war. Walking along it, it seems to go on forever. It’s very similar to the American Vietnam Memorial in DC. The key difference being that the French one has the names of about 90k people from a single city in France that died in the span of four years, while the American one has about 60k names from the entire USA who died over the course of more than a decade. That’s just a staggering loss of life.
 
US intelligence have called this every step of the way, and that’s just what the public know.
id imagine they are providing accurate and highly important info to the Ukrainian military.
Biden is a dothery old man who doesn’t inspire much confidence but he has very smart people around him and has handled this well so far. (Unlike afghan withdrawal)
sanctions will be a slow burn but they will be effective, particularly if the oligarchs get antsy.
NATO have shown the kind of restraint that avoids world wars. Not sure how that makes them foolish.
It was a retreat from Afghanistan
 
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