Current Affairs Ukraine

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TheBigIguana said:
Or they could win.

I don't really like the idea of making compromises in a genocidal war of aggression but it really can't be on the table so long as Ukraine are still anywhere close to the front foot in the actual fight.

And tbh I'm not sure what compromises there are to be made down the road that actually are good long term for anyone but Russia.
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The elephant in the room here is what constitutes a win, and this feeds specifically to your point of what compromises would be tolerated from Ukraine.

Russia isn't going to surrender. Therefore, the most appropriate outcome for Ukraine would be Russia to return to the original borders, releasing Crimea.

But again, how would that come about: full de-escalation by Russia? Regime change? Promises to not be an aggressor again? Sadly, I can't see these as likely.

Or at least not a combination of all, or to a point that Ukraine and Co. will believe and feel safe. Ukraine can't sustain this type of military campaign for years.

Ukraine is never, ever going to progress into Russian territory as that would be crossing the line of a thermal nuclear response. So how does it come to an end?

We're therefore, then, potentially looking at a war of attrition, which will likely push Ukraine and Russia towards a compromise of some varying degree.

Unless we have unconditional surrender, which ain't happening, there needs to be a negotiated truce and with that comes compromise from both. But not yet.
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
I realise that I am guilty also but you consistently neglect to add "in my opinion".
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I disagree, I don't think any of that was opinion so much as it is observable reality.

The Russian state hasn't (yet) done something as likely to wind up its own populace as suggesting the religious police can murder with impunity 22 year old girls for not wearing a hairpiece correctly was. People are not going to go out on the street, fight and probably die without something as outrageous as that was in their minds as a reason to do it.
 
tsubaki said:
TBF they aren't. The Iranian populace are dealing with a regime that was unpopular beforehand, and which has just committed one senseless act which has wound nearly everyone who is related to a female up. On top of that they've killed more women and kids whilst also failing to stop any of the protests or (more dangerously for them) the non-compliance.

The Russian state hasn't (yet) done anything equivalent to the Russian people - in fact, what they've done (rallied the people around a "threat" which they've overhyped for their own ends) is basically Nationalism 101 and it is depressingly effective; we've seen it work multiple times here for example (indeed that was what Johnson was trying to do when he was going to Kiev every few weeks).
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Russia has killed 60,000 plus of their own young men for nothing and is in the process of sending 200,000 untrained, under equipped orcs to the frontline like lambs to the slaughter.

I’d say that’s probably as worthy of a show of dissent as any other cause.
 
Big Sams Undies said:
Russia has killed 60,000 plus of their own young men for nothing and is in the process of sending 200,000 untrained, under equipped orcs to the frontline like lambs to the slaughter.

I’d say that’s probably as worthy of a show of dissent as any other cause.
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It isn't, at least not at the moment. People anywhere are usually not shocked into revolt when soldiers die in a war the government says is necessary, nor do they generally rise up when "their boys" are "fighting for their country".

Where problems might occur is when all those hundreds of thousands go home and tell their friends and family that their generals were incompetent and corrupt, they lost friends needlessly thanks to that corruption and incompetence and the Nazis they were sent to fight turned out to be men and women just like them who were defending their homes.
 
tsubaki said:
I disagree, I don't think any of that was opinion so much as it is observable reality.

The Russian state hasn't (yet) done something as likely to wind up its own populace as suggesting the religious police can murder with impunity 22 year old girls for not wearing a hairpiece correctly was. People are not going to go out on the street, fight and probably die without something as outrageous as that was in their minds as a reason to do it.
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The Russian state is a mafia state, brutal in its approach and application. To not understand this shows a lack of understanding.
 
PhilM said:
The elephant in the room here is what constitutes a win, and this feeds specifically to your point of what compromises would be tolerated from Ukraine.

Russia isn't going to surrender. Therefore, the most appropriate outcome for Ukraine would be Russia to return to the original borders, releasing Crimea.

But again, how would that come about: full de-escalation by Russia? Regime change? Promises to not be an aggressor again? Sadly, I can't see these as likely.

Or at least not a combination of all, or to a point that Ukraine and Co. will believe and feel safe. Ukraine can't sustain this type of military campaign for years.

Ukraine is never, ever going to progress into Russian territory as that would be crossing the line of a thermal nuclear response. So how does it come to an end?

We're therefore, then, potentially looking at a war of attrition, which will likely push Ukraine and Russia towards a compromise of some varying degree.

Unless we have unconditional surrender, which ain't happening, there needs to be a negotiated truce and with that comes compromise from both. But not yet.
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The war will end when the US and Western European countries lose the appetite to continue to supply weapons.
Once that happens the Ukrainian’s won’t be able to continue the initiative and attack. They will want to keep the remaining armaments for defensive purposes. Whilst still being supplied they will try and recovery as much territory as possible. As for Putin, he’s under political pressure in Russia. He will make some minor territorial gains where the Ukrainian’s can’t shift them and call it a success. Doubt he’d want to go on a massive counter attack if the Ukrainian’s run out of supplies.
 
Del-boy said:
The war will end when the US and Western European countries lose the appetite to continue to supply weapons.
Once that happens the Ukrainian’s won’t be able to continue the initiative and attack. They will want to keep the remaining armaments for defensive purposes. Whilst still being supplied they will try and recovery as much territory as possible. As for Putin, he’s under political pressure in Russia. He will make some minor territorial gains where the Ukrainian’s can’t shift them and call it a success. Doubt he’d want to go on a massive counter attack if the Ukrainian’s run out of supplies.
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He will. He wants to devastate Ukraine. Been on the news like.
 
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