Current Affairs Ukraine

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Del-boy said:
The war will end when the US and Western European countries lose the appetite to continue to supply weapons.
Once that happens the Ukrainian’s won’t be able to continue the initiative and attack. They will want to keep the remaining armaments for defensive purposes. Whilst still being supplied they will try and recovery as much territory as possible. As for Putin, he’s under political pressure in Russia. He will make some minor territorial gains where the Ukrainian’s can’t shift them and call it a success. Doubt he’d want to go on a massive counter attack if the Ukrainian’s run out of supplies.
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This is the endgame Putin is pushing for, which is why part of his strategy is interference in our internal politics. (Of course, Ukraine is doing the same thing in a very different way.)

@PhilM is absolutely correct that Ukraine has to become willing to compromise for the war to end, unless they can somehow retake all of the territory and destroy Russia's capacity to make war. If the West ratchets down its willingness to support Ukraine, a protracted war of attrition becomes likely. Russia is targeting Ukraine's power generation capabilities to make the upcoming winter as unpleasant as possible and erode domestic support for Zelenskyy, which moves toward his desired ends under the circumstances.

If Putin somehow destroyed Ukraine's capability to make war, he would probably storm Kyiv and have done with it, but I don't see that happening.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
But it’s okay for Russia to use the Black Sea fleet to launch cruise missiles against the innocent population of Ukraine???

This is the Muscovite mindset laid bare for all to see.

What a bunch of absolute raging bellends.
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Importantly though, if this is true, it's a real sign of Russian willingness to compromise alongside indicating that they’re willing to acknowledge their weaknesses.

If true, they’re signalling that they can’t afford to lose their Black Sea Fleet, so Ukraine could say, "Okay, as long as there are assurances from your side."

They should be that the BSF stays in port and can't be used as a base for PGMs (missiles etc.) and aircraft. This could add security and allow grain movements.

The caveat being that if Russia do not agree to or maintain the agreement, Ukraine has carte blanche to attack their fleet at will. Will Russia agree to this?

Probably not, but at least it's a conduit for discussion and Ukraine has increased legitimacy to attack Russian assets.
 
PhilM said:
Importantly though, if this is true, it's a real sign of Russian willingness to compromise alongside indicating that they’re willing to acknowledge their weaknesses.

If true, they’re signalling that they can’t afford to lose their Black Sea Fleet, so Ukraine could say, "Okay, as long as there are assurances from your side."

They should be that the BSF stays in port and can't be used as a base for PGMs (missiles etc.) and aircraft. This could add security and allow grain movements.

The caveat being that if Russia do not agree to or maintain the agreement, Ukraine has carte blanche to attack their fleet at will. Will Russia agree to this?

Probably not, but at least it's a conduit for discussion and Ukraine has increased legitimacy to attack Russian assets.
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Looks like Turkey called Russia’s bluff here and Putin backed down. Grain convoys continue and for the first time I’m seeing Turkish asw aircraft active in the Black Sea.
 
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