Current Affairs Ukraine

[PhilM]

I doubt they will but the threat alone is enough that Ukraine will have to commit significant reserves just in case - and given the length of contact along the front atm I'm guessing that's why this is happening.

Basically Russia trying to stop another serious big offensive push by draining away forces to protect Kiev.

Trying to buy more time to get the reserves trained and equipped.

Just guesswork but seems the likelihood

A sensible take on it.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Thing about the frozen reserve being used in that way mate, it'd absolutely finish the dollar as the reserve currency which to a massive extent is what supports it. It'll be pushed for by the EU and some US congressman but not a chance it'll happen.

Using frozen dollar reserves, to rebuild Ukraine would crash the dollar?

That would be akin to using the dollar for oil transactions posing a risk to the dollar.

We are at a point of seeing money, forex, fiat etc coming under increasing scrutiny. It may well be that that forex across the board will see a shift from the current status quo but these things are happening anyway. Russia and China's gamble on gold supplanting the dollar and its ability to be weilded as a tool of sanctions has been shown as a pointless excercise as the unity shown by the west in blocking trade and the like shows that cooperation is key when slapping a bad actor.

 

[tsubaki]

Once Putin is defeated I'm sure the NATO countries will say just write off the costs of all the support given and we'll rebuild the destroyed Ukrainian cities!

Plans are already in discussion for $300 billion in frozen central bank assets.. The last assessment suggested the figure needed to repair the destruction caused by Russia will be nearer to the trillion mark. As for Putin in the dock, it is Russia we are talking about so he probably take a wrong turn out of a window or have a bad cup of tea.

This is a fantasy though - if it happened (without explicit Russian agreement) it would just result in a withdrawal of all moveable foreign assets from jurisdictions that did that.

The reason so much foreign money is placed in the US and other Western states is because it is seen as safe to leave it there. If it is no longer safe, it will leave. If it leaves, we can no longer freeze it and we have nothing to use as leverage.

Our strength is based on an interconnected world economy. If we start disconnecting from it, we will suffer as we have been.

 

[bluestevon]

4 and a small bicycle…..

Nope I think Russias had a lot of losses mate, the bulk of which have been suffered by the DPR and Wagner forces.

But I think Urkraines have been many times higher due to the nature of how it's been fought by both sides.

I'll tag in @PhilM as my knowledge is purely from being a military history buff so genuinely interested to get the take if someone with actual military experience.

Phil as I've seen it, there's been up to now 4/5 stages of the war.

1. Fast Russian advance, heavily sold feint towards Kiev at the expense of quite heavy losses, especially equipment and vehicles in order to isolate the Donbass for phase 2.
2. The pinning - sometimes encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in key objectives - and the deployment of a grinding down offense on them.
3. The artillery war phase proper, little movement compared to 1&2 but effectively an artillery meat grinder phase for 3 months. Phase 2&3 saw the Ukranians almost employing a not one inch backwards strategy
4. Ukraine counter offensive very much in the new NATO style, much like phase 1 they sold a feint the Russians bought in Kerson by committing a lot to it - but not the better quality stuff, breakthroughs in the North and Russians initially routing then gaining some order to retreats but without any large encirckement happening.
5. Ukraine advancing taking ground Russians holding for a period then pulling back to avoid any encirclement, seemingly without the chaos that Russia seemed they had happening in phase 4.
6. Phase 6 - where we are at now, ukranians probing right across the line Russians holding, artillery seemingly back supporting and air/drones being utilised. Ukraine seemingly trying to build a large enough force in one area to make another major breakthrough, Russians trying to disrupt any force gathering.

Unless I'm missing something significant here then on the nature if how it's been fought, I don't see how on earth Ukraine hasn't suffered extremely high casualties, and I mean in an order of magnitude higher than what Russia 'so far' has

 

[peteblue]

Nope I think Russias had a lot of losses mate, the bulk of which have been suffered by the DPR and Wagner forces.

But I think Urkraines have been many times higher due to the nature of how it's been fought by both sides.

I'll tag in @PhilM as my knowledge is purely from being a military history buff so genuinely interested to get the take if someone with actual military experience.

Phil as I've seen it, there's been up to now 4/5 stages of the war.

1. Fast Russian advance, heavily sold feint towards Kiev at the expense of quite heavy losses, especially equipment and vehicles in order to isolate the Donbass for phase 2.
2. The pinning - sometimes encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in key objectives - and the deployment of a grinding down offense on them.
3. The artillery war phase proper, little movement compared to 1&2 but effectively an artillery meat grinder phase for 3 months. Phase 2&3 saw the Ukranians almost employing a not one inch backwards strategy
4. Ukraine counter offensive very much in the new NATO style, much like phase 1 they sold a feint the Russians bought in Kerson by committing a lot to it - but not the better quality stuff, breakthroughs in the North and Russians initially routing then gaining some order to retreats but without any large encirckement happening.
5. Ukraine advancing taking ground Russians holding for a period then pulling back to avoid any encirclement, seemingly without the chaos that Russia seemed they had happening in phase 4.
6. Phase 6 - where we are at now, ukranians probing right across the line Russians holding, artillery seemingly back supporting and air/drones being utilised. Ukraine seemingly trying to build a large enough force in one area to make another major breakthrough, Russians trying to disrupt any force gathering.

Unless I'm missing something significant here then on the nature if how it's been fought, I don't see how on earth Ukraine hasn't suffered extremely high casualties, and I mean in an order of magnitude higher than what Russia 'so far' has

I think you are missing the point. Russia has lost a vast amount of military equipment. Even if Ukraine has lost far more it doesn’t matter because the Western powers with vastly greater manufacturing capability, technology and indeed money, will simply replace it and have indicated just this point from the G7. Russia is being beaten on the ground and materially they are running out of equipment, meanwhile the West will simply keep churning it out and sending it to Ukraine. It’s a no-brainer tbh……

 

[bluestevon]

Sorry Lad not even close. It's what Russia propaganda wants you to believe but the ruble will fail way before that happens. Now if you nuke the capital markets stateside you would be correct along with every nation collapsing along with it. I would suggest learning economics just a little.

I have learnt it mate, I'd not be teaching it in English to several exceptional economics students from Moscow university otherwise so that they understand what they know in their native language also in English.

If you freeze - a foreign countries reserve currencies held in dollars and then change the laws post doing so in order to effectively steal the reserve - as a reserve isn't a man's but a people's then watch how quickly most of the world will ditch the dollar as a reserve currency. You will have completely undermined any trust which is what a reserve is held based upon

 

[bluestevon]

This is a fantasy though - if it happened (without explicit Russian agreement) it would just result in a withdrawal of all moveable foreign assets from jurisdictions that did that.

The reason so much foreign money is placed in the US and other Western states is because it is seen as safe to leave it there. If it is no longer safe, it will leave. If it leaves, we can no longer freeze it and we have nothing to use as leverage.

Our strength is based on an interconnected world economy. If we start disconnecting from it, we will suffer as we have been.

And in a nutshell that's why it's not going to happen, it'd be akin to putting a huge neon sign up saying if we don't like what you do we'll steal your money.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This is a fantasy though - if it happened (without explicit Russian agreement) it would just result in a withdrawal of all moveable foreign assets from jurisdictions that did that.

The reason so much foreign money is placed in the US and other Western states is because it is seen as safe to leave it there. If it is no longer safe, it will leave. If it leaves, we can no longer freeze it and we have nothing to use as leverage.

Our strength is based on an interconnected world economy. If we start disconnecting from it, we will suffer as we have been.

Fantasy...

War in Europe in 2022. Russia threatening to drop nuclear bombs in Europe, that was the stuff of fantasy but is reality now.

We are living in a bookmarked place in history and the reailty is that the world will not be the same on the other side. Russia have been America and Europes foe since 1947. Thinking the west will do all it can to dismantle the threat, well, that is fantasy.

I would see such an action as just another punitive measure like sanctions. It would be an example of what follows actions such as these atrocities by Putin, which is why it is being discussed among the current leadership.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

Nope I think Russias had a lot of losses mate, the bulk of which have been suffered by the DPR and Wagner forces.

But I think Urkraines have been many times higher due to the nature of how it's been fought by both sides.

I'll tag in @PhilM as my knowledge is purely from being a military history buff so genuinely interested to get the take if someone with actual military experience.

Phil as I've seen it, there's been up to now 4/5 stages of the war.

1. Fast Russian advance, heavily sold feint towards Kiev at the expense of quite heavy losses, especially equipment and vehicles in order to isolate the Donbass for phase 2.
2. The pinning - sometimes encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in key objectives - and the deployment of a grinding down offense on them.
3. The artillery war phase proper, little movement compared to 1&2 but effectively an artillery meat grinder phase for 3 months. Phase 2&3 saw the Ukranians almost employing a not one inch backwards strategy
4. Ukraine counter offensive very much in the new NATO style, much like phase 1 they sold a feint the Russians bought in Kerson by committing a lot to it - but not the better quality stuff, breakthroughs in the North and Russians initially routing then gaining some order to retreats but without any large encirckement happening.
5. Ukraine advancing taking ground Russians holding for a period then pulling back to avoid any encirclement, seemingly without the chaos that Russia seemed they had happening in phase 4.
6. Phase 6 - where we are at now, ukranians probing right across the line Russians holding, artillery seemingly back supporting and air/drones being utilised. Ukraine seemingly trying to build a large enough force in one area to make another major breakthrough, Russians trying to disrupt any force gathering.

Unless I'm missing something significant here then on the nature if how it's been fought, I don't see how on earth Ukraine hasn't suffered extremely high casualties, and I mean in an order of magnitude higher than what Russia 'so far' has

You forgot the bit about the Russians committing various hundreds/thousands of war crimes.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

I have learnt it mate, I'd not be teaching it in English to several exceptional economics students from Moscow university otherwise so that they understand what they know in their native language also in English.

If you freeze - a foreign countries reserve currencies held in dollars and then change the laws post doing so in order to effectively steal the reserve - as a reserve isn't a man's but a people's then watch how quickly most of the world will ditch the dollar as a reserve currency. You will have completely undermined any trust which is what a reserve is held based upon

Exceptional Economics students you say well that changes everything. The Brics have been front and center trying to unify and have their own reserve for years and are still struggling I see. I think you will have to teach many years to see the fruition of this if and when it does happen. Putin would be so lucky to live that long.Wonder how is his Gold hoard going?
I will say teaching English as a second language is very commendable my wife did for years.

 

[wm02]

I have learnt it mate, I'd not be teaching it in English to several exceptional economics students from Moscow university otherwise so that they understand what they know in their native language also in English.

If you freeze - a foreign countries reserve currencies held in dollars and then change the laws post doing so in order to effectively steal the reserve - as a reserve isn't a man's but a people's then watch how quickly most of the world will ditch the dollar as a reserve currency. You will have completely undermined any trust which is what a reserve is held based upon

You may want to check out James Rickards books. He predicted a lot of what we have seen with regard to the currency wars, sanctions, etc.
I don’t agree 100% with some of his theories but he provides a really interesting perspective

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I have learnt it mate, I'd not be teaching it in English to several exceptional economics students from Moscow university otherwise so that they understand what they know in their native language also in English.

If you freeze - a foreign countries reserve currencies held in dollars and then change the laws post doing so in order to effectively steal the reserve - as a reserve isn't a man's but a people's then watch how quickly most of the world will ditch the dollar as a reserve currency. You will have completely undermined any trust which is what a reserve is held based upon

When the bill to rebuild Ukraine is a choice between the G20 (citizens) footing it or the perpetrators I can see were a consensus would build, more so given the cost of living issues that are building are a result of Russias invasion.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Fantasy...

War in Europe in 2022. Russia threatening to drop nuclear bombs in Europe, that was the stuff of fantasy but is reality now.

We are living in a bookmarked place in history and the reailty is that the world will not be the same on the other side. Russia have been America and Europes foe since 1947. Thinking the west will not do all it can to dismantle the threat, well, that is fantasy.

I would see such an action as just another punitive measure like sanctions. It would be an example of what follows actions such as these atrocities by Putin, which is why it is being discussed among the current leadership.

Missed the word "not" from the original, added above

 

[tsubaki]

Fantasy...

War in Europe in 2022. Russia threatening to drop nuclear bombs in Europe, that was the stuff of fantasy but is reality now.

We are living in a bookmarked place in history and the reailty is that the world will not be the same on the other side. Russia have been America and Europes foe since 1947. Thinking the west will do all it can to dismantle the threat, well, that is fantasy.

I would see such an action as just another punitive measure like sanctions. It would be an example of what follows actions such as these atrocities by Putin, which is why it is being discussed among the current leadership.

Non-answering of my point aside, the problem with this is that you are assuming this is just an us vs them thing - it isn't, and the success or failure of these actions are being watched by those who are or could be affected by similar actions in the future.

Take one of these actions for example, the proposed oil price cap. Is it any surprise that the oil producing countries have fallen out with us after we thought up that idea, which directly affects their bottom line now and which could be used against them in the future? Why on earth did we propose this when a much more effective measure (reducing consumption) is available to us at far less cost? Why are we actively pushing the Saudis towards China and Russia when we can just screw them all over (again by reducing consumption)?

Our leaders, especially here, are idiots. I am not sure why anyone thinks anything they are doing is a good idea, given the circumstances (economic damage, social damage, the complete absence of rearmament or preparation of the population for what might follow, the lies in the Tory-supporting media). Yet some people seem determined to laugh at Truss or Biden on the one hand whilst also proclaiming that, in this area of policy at least, they are great.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Top 15 Countries by GDP in 2024 | Global PEO Services

Understanding the global economic landscape helps prepare for global expansion. Here is a list of the top 15 countries by GDP in 2024.

globalpeoservices.com

Why Russia which has the greatest land mass can’t stack up to a powerful financed

Biggest companies in the world by market cap 2022 | Statista

With a market capitalization of 2.64 trillion U.S.

www.statista.com

Didn’t see too many Russian companies in this list I wonder why?