Current Affairs Ukraine

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tsubaki said:
Non-answering of my point aside, the problem with this is that you are assuming this is just an us vs them thing - it isn't, and the success or failure of these actions are being watched by those who are or could be affected by similar actions in the future.

Take one of these actions for example, the proposed oil price cap. Is it any surprise that the oil producing countries have fallen out with us after we thought up that idea, which directly affects their bottom line now and which could be used against them in the future? Why on earth did we propose this when a much more effective measure (reducing consumption) is available to us at far less cost? Why are we actively pushing the Saudis towards China and Russia when we can just screw them all over (again by reducing consumption)?

Our leaders, especially here, are idiots. I am not sure why anyone thinks anything they are doing is a good idea, given the circumstances (economic damage, social damage, the complete absence of rearmament or preparation of the population for what might follow, the lies in the Tory-supporting media). Yet some people seem determined to laugh at Truss or Biden on the one hand whilst also proclaiming that, in this area of policy at least, they are great.
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It might not fit with your view of the world but the US have already set the precident with using frozen Afghanistan central bank assets. The dollar and the US seem to be fine in relation to this move.

As I say, if the bill is to land at the feet of the citizens of the G20/G7 or Russia I can well imagine a consensus building.
 
It is a point of debate and it won't be straightforward but the intention and will to explore this is clear.

www.politico.eu

Payback time: The West studies how to make Russia foot the war bill

The cost of rebuilding Ukraine is already in the hundreds of billions, and growing by the day.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu


www.nytimes.com

U.S. Establishes Trust With $3.5 Billion in Frozen Afghan Central Bank Funds

The Afghan Fund, which will be based in Switzerland, is meant to help stabilize Afghanistan’s economy and pay for imports like electricity — without benefiting the Taliban.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Loading…

redress.org
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
It might not fit with your view of the world but the US have already set the precident with using frozen Afghanistan central bank assets. The dollar and the US seem to be fine in relation to this move.

As I say, if the bill is to land at the feet of the citizens of the G20/G7 or Russia I can well imagine a consensus building.
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Exactly, Dollar is exploding higher as it is viewed as a safe haven In uncertain times.
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
It might not fit with your view of the world but the US have already set the precident with using frozen Afghanistan central bank assets. The dollar and the US seem to be fine in relation to this move.

As I say, if the bill is to land at the feet of the citizens of the G20/G7 or Russia I can well imagine a consensus building.
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That is Afghanistan, not Russia, and it is a tiny amount compared to what we are talking about here. They'll almost certainly end up releasing all of those frozen funds to the Afghan government eventually anyway.

I struggle to understand why so many are failing to honestly assess whether sanctions and all the rest of the financial measures taken in this conflict have actually worked (or will ever work), at least in terms of causing more harm to them than they do to us. Yet every time a political figure pops up and says "well THIS GESTURE will really do something" there are loads of people to lap it up.
 
tsubaki said:
That is Afghanistan, not Russia, and it is a tiny amount compared to what we are talking about here. They'll almost certainly end up releasing all of those frozen funds to the Afghan government eventually anyway.

I struggle to understand why so many are failing to honestly assess whether sanctions and all the rest of the financial measures taken in this conflict have actually worked (or will ever work), at least in terms of causing more harm to them than they do to us. Yet every time a political figure pops up and says "well THIS GESTURE will really do something" there are loads of people to lap it up.
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OK mate. Let us just label reality as fantasy. ;)
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
OK mate. Let us just label reality as fantasy. ;)
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How do you think sanctions and the rest of the financial wizardry is working, then? I ask because Russia seems to be in receipt of even more money than usual, whilst we've lost tens of billions and are going through quite a serious political, economic and social crisis. We've also quite pointedly failed to stop this war via these sanctions, just as we've failed to change the course that North Korea, Iran, Venezuela and Turkey are on.

Or to put it another way - imagine that the West put in no sanctions whatsoever, but instead supplied Ukraine from the beginning with the amount and quality of arms they are providing now. Do you think we'd be in the same economic mess as we are now? Do you think Russia would be earning the sums they are, for supplying much less gas and oil?
 
tsubaki said:
How do you think sanctions and the rest of the financial wizardry is working, then? I ask because Russia seems to be in receipt of even more money than usual, whilst we've lost tens of billions and are going through quite a serious political, economic and social crisis. We've also quite pointedly failed to stop this war via these sanctions, just as we've failed to change the course that North Korea, Iran, Venezuela and Turkey are on.

Or to put it another way - imagine that the West put in no sanctions whatsoever, but instead supplied Ukraine from the beginning with the amount and quality of arms they are providing now. Do you think we'd be in the same economic mess as we are now? Do you think Russia would be earning the sums they are, for supplying much less gas and oil?
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Sanctions don't work, by definition. This is also a settled question empirically.

The threat of sanctions has potency.
 
Martin Alvito said:
Sanctions don't work, by definition. This is also a settled question empirically.

The threat of sanctions has potency.
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I agree they are a very imperfect tool but “don’t work” seems a bit strong imo particularly in certain sectors.

The restriction on high tech goods is presumably quite a hit (iirc Russia has frozen import/export data reporting post invasion so hard to get decent up to date data). Obviously there will be supplementation via either 3rd parties or substitution of alternatives but this is quite a volume to replace.

eg in semiconductors
warontherocks.com

Can Russia Rebuild Its Tech Sector with China’s Help? - War on the Rocks

The far-reaching export controls the United States and others imposed in response to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine were meant to have long-term
warontherocks.com
The country continues to be highly reliant on foreign technology. According to the United Nations Comtrade database, in 2020 Russia imported around $400 million worth of semiconductor devices and roughly $1.25 billion worth of electronic integrated circuits.

and in other high tech goods
www.bruegel.org

The decoupling of Russia: high-tech goods and components

Sanctions on high-tech goods supplies, combined with financial sanctions and other restrictions, will deprive Russia of a future as a modern economy.
www.bruegel.org www.bruegel.org
Russia is highly reliant on imports of high-tech goods, with imports worth around $19 billion annually. The largest share (45%) comes from the EU, with 21% from the US, 11% from China and 2% from the United Kingdom. The main import categories are aerospace goods (worth almost $6 billion) and information and communication goods (nearly $4 billion in 2019).

Most nuclear technology imports in 2019 came from the EU (68%). The EU is also the main provider of biotechnology, electronics, life sciences and flexible manufacturing goods (Figure 1). China was the primary provider of opto-electronics, and the US was the main supplier of aerospace goods to Russia.
 
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