Current Affairs Ukraine

[The binman chronicles]

Was it the Ukrainians stopping Russia from reinforcing Crimea or Russia stopping its conscripts from running away?

Or might just be a Russian plant to be able to justify stronger attacks from their side? Looks like the bridge could have been laced with explosives from underneath which you would have thought might be difficult for Ukraine to do and easy for Russia. The explosion on top looks to be more for effect given it hasn't caused devastation on the railway track pillars and/or even the guardrails on the other roadway. I can't see that dropping the deck in TWO places without the entire section being reduced to a pile of rubble.

I would also query why the cameras caught it exactly in the right place to see the explosion and not be destroyed. Unless they have cameras every 50 or so meters along the entire span...

Initial reports are suggesting one road lane is intact from Kerch to Taman, and the rail can't be assessed until the train is towed away soon.

The rail line itself will need to be replaced for sure. Any damage to the concrete that allowed the heat to get in might mean pillars and/or bridge spans need replacing before you put the weight of a massive train on it.

 

[tsubaki]

The remarkable "cleanness" of the breaks in the collapsed road section make me wonder about Ukrainian spec ops using shaped charges IE controlled demolition.

The truck-based explosion *might be a red herring to cover the tracks of a small spec ops team. Entirely speculation though. One way or another however, it didn't just fall down by itself.

Not sure - it was built in a hurry, and one would think that if you could get SF onto the bridge and blow it up then you would drop both roadways and the rail bridge.

 

[Paris]

This is delicious.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Russia's reaction will be interesting, it's the first time I've seen almost universal support across social.medua channels for hitting their civilian infrastructure hard mate.

As a barometer of what the reaction will be it's an interesting turn of events seeing that change .

If Russia is capable of doing so and if it is does it react or "keep to plan" is another matter entirely though.

Odd, as this is largely not the case - only heavy pro-Russian channels and Russia are the ones that are supporting... themselves.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

They can easily supply Crimea by sea without going anywhere near anti-ship PGMs, and have been throughout the war.

They don’t have the trucks to be able to resupply their units by road. It’s the impact of losing the rail supply link that will hurt Russia the most.

No fuel = no tankies.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Seems like Ukraine right now are pushing to get a reaction from Russia which would broaden the war and drag other countries I to getting more involved.

So you believe Ukraine want to make things worse as opposed to making things better/easier by isolating the troops they are fighting?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

As I mentioned above, Crimea is a logistical hub for the southern front, with supplies being funnelled from there through to the front. This could stop that.

If you're going to launch an offensive, you want your counterparts to have their fighting efficiency weakened as much as possible. Again, this could do that.

Russian forces will struggle if their already limited amount of supplies (food, ammunition, repair parts etc.) is curtailed even further, which will be the goal.

The more and more I think about it, the Russian forces have little training anyway, but they appear to have received very little in actual 'fighting' - e.g. a war.

On a hungry belly, cold and without necessary supplies, I can see quite a few of these conscripts not putting up a fight when they face the inevitable hardships.

Yeah but Putins propoganda channels and all that innit.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

From the video, you can't locate the cause of the explosion, but an attack within the furthest truck isn't impossible. Suicide attack? Could be a drone striker, though.

A trail tanker, full of fuel, was caught in the explosion as well, so there's now no link to the mainland.

Interesting that at the exact moment that the bridge was struck that someone in the security office had the exact area of the very long bridge that was hit on the main viewer and had their phone out videoing just before and as the hit happened.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Interesting that at the exact moment that the bridge was struck that someone in the security office had the exact area of the very long bridge that was hit on the main viewer and had their phone out videoing just before and as the hit happened.

Interesting that you can see the current CCTV live stream behind him, on the wall of screens.

Interesting how CCTV can rollback footage.

Interesting.

 

[tsubaki]

They don’t have the trucks to be able to resupply their units by road. It’s the impact of losing the rail supply link that will hurt Russia the most.

No fuel = no tankies.

do you think the tanks have to drive to a railhead to pick up fuel?

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

do you think the tanks have to drive to a railhead to pick up fuel?

No. In the absence of a rail link the fuel has to be trucked to the tanks.

That’s over 400km across territory contested by Uke drones and long range arty.

Plus the amount of trucks that would be needed to daily supply an Armd brigade is utterly huge - they don’t have the resources

 

[davids]

It's an interesting take, blaming the invasion of the Ukraine on everyone apart from the guy who ordered the invasion of the Ukraine. Scorching hot stuff

Nobody is,just another take on the situation. Facts are facts. Ukraine had agreed to allow the Donbass some form of autonomy,had promised to stay out of NATO to keep a buffer between NATO and Russia. And it's well documented that Turkey had brokered a peace deal where Russian troops would withdraw,but "countries who wanted the war to continue" put pressure on Zelensky to carry on fighting. It's not hard to find all this online from reputable non Russian media outlets...?

 

[JammyP]

Was it the Ukrainians stopping Russia from reinforcing Crimea or Russia stopping its conscripts from running away?

Maybe Ukraine, this time
...

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Interesting that you can see the current CCTV live stream behind him, on the wall of screens.

Interesting how CCTV can rollback footage.

Interesting.

 

[davids]

As I mentioned above, Crimea is a logistical hub for the southern front, with supplies being funnelled from there through to the front. This could stop that.

If you're going to launch an offensive, you want your counterparts to have their fighting efficiency weakened as much as possible. Again, this could do that.

Russian forces will struggle if their already limited amount of supplies (food, ammunition, repair parts etc.) is curtailed even further, which will be the goal.

The more and more I think about it, the Russian forces have little training anyway, but they appear to have received very little in actual 'fighting' - e.g. a war.

On a hungry belly, cold and without necessary supplies, I can see quite a few of these conscripts not putting up a fight when they face the inevitable hardships.

Think that the idea of being captured by the Azov might prove stimulus to fight for their lives.

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