Current Affairs Ukraine
- Thread starter Mutzo Nutzo
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Was it the Ukrainians stopping Russia from reinforcing Crimea or Russia stopping its conscripts from running away?
Big Sams Undies
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Ukes severing yet another Russian supply artery?
Unlucky Orcs.
Unlucky Orcs.
bluestevon
Player Valuation: £80m
If Ukraine's goal was to give the Russian government popular support to level Kiev mate, then blowing up that bridge has likely done so, even normally pretty relaxed channels are demanding a very severe response. Not seen the reaction close to this strong before
Russia showing all the various footage is not gonna calm that down either.
P.S. If Russia doesn't respond with something big btw, it'll not go down well for Putin's support
Strategically @bluestevon, it initially looks like a sensible attack by Ukraine as the Kherson offensive looks as if it's to start soon, with Crimea being their supply line.
It's going to be far more difficult for the Russian army to get men and supplies to where it is required, which I suspect will only aid the Ukrainian offensive.
In terms of attacking Kiev, unless they're going to go nuclear (they won't) I again suspect it'd be a costly venture when you consider Ukraine's defences.
Does Russia have enough PGMs, and will it throw the rest into the mix to attack a civilian centre - ergo terror attacks? Will it risk its bombers?
If they do, it'll only embolden the Ukrainians, increase their support in the west (with that materialistic/military demands) and weaken their own forces.
Russia opened the box, and now they don't like the whirlwind produced.
It's going to be far more difficult for the Russian army to get men and supplies to where it is required, which I suspect will only aid the Ukrainian offensive.
In terms of attacking Kiev, unless they're going to go nuclear (they won't) I again suspect it'd be a costly venture when you consider Ukraine's defences.
Does Russia have enough PGMs, and will it throw the rest into the mix to attack a civilian centre - ergo terror attacks? Will it risk its bombers?
If they do, it'll only embolden the Ukrainians, increase their support in the west (with that materialistic/military demands) and weaken their own forces.
Russia opened the box, and now they don't like the whirlwind produced.
bluestevon
Player Valuation: £80m
Given the timing of this, it's strange, they aren't in any kind of position to try to attack Crimea so destroying the Kersch bridge right now is just a provocative attack, same as launching a drone strike deep into Russia at an airbase irrelevant to the current conflict. Also a firefight near Kursk the other day between FSB and an 'unknown' group.
Throw in the unscripted NATO application, and the recent interview about a pre emptive strike by NATO.
Seems like Ukraine right now are pushing to get a reaction from Russia which would broaden the war and drag other countries I to getting more involved.
Least that's my take on it. Which is strange as apparently they're all but guaranteed victory sccording to 'experts' so why risk a dramatic escalation
Throw in the unscripted NATO application, and the recent interview about a pre emptive strike by NATO.
Seems like Ukraine right now are pushing to get a reaction from Russia which would broaden the war and drag other countries I to getting more involved.
Least that's my take on it. Which is strange as apparently they're all but guaranteed victory sccording to 'experts' so why risk a dramatic escalation
bluestevon
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Russia's reaction will be interesting, it's the first time I've seen almost universal support across social.medua channels for hitting their civilian infrastructure hard mate.
As a barometer of what the reaction will be it's an interesting turn of events seeing that change .
If Russia is capable of doing so and if it is does it react or "keep to plan" is another matter entirely though.
As I mentioned above, Crimea is a logistical hub for the southern front, with supplies being funnelled from there through to the front. This could stop that.
If you're going to launch an offensive, you want your counterparts to have their fighting efficiency weakened as much as possible. Again, this could do that.
Russian forces will struggle if their already limited amount of supplies (food, ammunition, repair parts etc.) is curtailed even further, which will be the goal.
The more and more I think about it, the Russian forces have little training anyway, but they appear to have received very little in actual 'fighting' - e.g. a war.
On a hungry belly, cold and without necessary supplies, I can see quite a few of these conscripts not putting up a fight when they face the inevitable hardships.
From the video, you can't locate the cause of the explosion, but an attack within the furthest truck isn't impossible. Suicide attack? Could be a drone striker, though.
A trail tanker, full of fuel, was caught in the explosion as well, so there's now no link to the mainland.
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bluestevon
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Initial reports are suggesting one road lane is intact from Kerch to Taman, and the rail can't be assessed until the train is towed away soon.
tsubaki
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Doubt it was a drone that did that, the bang is far too big for anything publicly known about to carry. A missile is a possibility but that displays a precision and a range beyond what we know Ukraine possesses and the damage is very precise (only one of the two roadways dropped) and incredibly well timed. A car or truck bomb is also a possibility, though in some of the footage there doesn't seem to be that much debris scattered about (look how clean the roadway is only a short distance from the blast site in this clip) and the damage is very localised:
So that leaves either a very small bomb on either the truck or the train which set off two BLEVEs (one which triggered the other), or an act of God. I tend to lean towards the latter because of the difficulty in timing it so perfectly to catch a fuel tanker as it passed a fuel train on the bridge above an expansion joint on the road - you'd need to be able to clearly see what was happening across the length of the bridge to do it and press the button at exactly the right second.
bluestevon
Player Valuation: £80m
Just from the video it looks like the truck is the source of the explosion - suicide or possibly more likely a remote detonation from close by as it drew parallel with the oil tankers
As you mention, there appears to be no sizable fragmentation from the explosion, which you would get with a PGM - e.g. a missile. It's part of how they work.
A VBIED looks more and more likely, and it's what Russia are actually suggesting. Whether the driver knew they were on a suicide drive, that's another question.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
I don't even think a VBIED is likely, there would be more damage and bits of it everywhere. There is also the damage to the rail bridge - the span looks dented downwards and outwards (as in, toward the road) which might suggest the big part of the bang was there. Plus in this clip it certainly looks like the truck blew up after being consumed in the first explosion:
edit: there is also the sparking almost immediately after the blast, which probably comes from either damaged overhead lines on the railway or power lines running along the rail bridge
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