Current Affairs Ukraine

[tsubaki]

As a comparison, this is a BLEVE which occurred in Italy a while back for a road tanker:

 

[larrygobfiend]

If Ukraine's goal was to give the Russian government popular support to level Kiev mate, then blowing up that bridge has likely done so, even normally pretty relaxed channels are demanding a very severe response. Not seen the reaction close to this strong before

Russia showing all the various footage is not gonna calm that down either.

P.S. If Russia doesn't respond with something big btw, it'll not go down well for Putin's support

Stop salivating Steveski

 

[tsubaki]

here is another clip of the scene - note (in the second clip) the position of the crash barriers on the side closest to the rail bridge, and compare them to the crash barriers on the road bit which collapsed:

 

[larrygobfiend]

Jeepers, this isn’t gonna end well at all.

I think Kyiv will be hit with something today.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

However Ukraine did it - it appears to be have been a huge success. They took out an entire road span, a fuel train and also severely damaged the rail bridge.

That’s another logistics route destroyed - gonna be a harsh winter for the Russian troops in the south.

 

[Tree13]

As I mentioned above, Crimea is a logistical hub for the southern front, with supplies being funnelled from there through to the front. This could stop that.

If you're going to launch an offensive, you want your counterparts to have their fighting efficiency weakened as much as possible. Again, this could do that.

Russian forces will struggle if their already limited amount of supplies (food, ammunition, repair parts etc.) is curtailed even further, which will be the goal.

The more and more I think about it, the Russian forces have little training anyway, but they appear to have received very little in actual 'fighting' - e.g. a war.

On a hungry belly, cold and without necessary supplies, I can see quite a few of these conscripts not putting up a fight when they face the inevitable hardships.

There's also the possibility that Putin might, out of desperation, give orders to commence resupplying Crimea by sea. The Ukrainians might be trying to entice Russian surface vessels back into the range of anti-ship PGM.

Strategically it's vital to cut off Crimea from resupply if the rumoured UKR offensive is going to drive towards Melitopol, because leaving the entire flank exposed to a counterattack from Crimea would be absurd UNLESS the Russian troops in Crimea were first rendered unable to attack (lack of fuel, food, munitions).

 

[tsubaki]

However Ukraine did it - it appears to be have been a huge success. They took out an entire road span, a fuel train and also severely damaged the rail bridge.

That’s another logistics route destroyed - gonna be a harsh winter for the Russian troops in the south.

A bit soon to say it is destroyed - we can't see how badly damaged the rail bridge is (its certainly damaged but it hasnt collapsed) and one of the carriageways looks intact still.

Also I think there are quite a few reasons to doubt that Ukraine (or any other human actor) did it.

 

[tsubaki]

There's also the possibility that Putin might, out of desperation, give orders to commence resupplying Crimea by sea. The Ukrainians might be trying to entice Russian surface vessels back into the range of anti-ship PGM.

Strategically it's vital to cut off Crimea from resupply if the rumoured UKR offensive is going to drive towards Melitopol, because leaving the entire flank exposed to a counterattack from Crimea would be absurd UNLESS the Russian troops in Crimea were first rendered unable to attack (lack of fuel, food, munitions).

They can easily supply Crimea by sea without going anywhere near anti-ship PGMs, and have been throughout the war.

 

[Tree13]

A bit soon to say it is destroyed - we can't see how badly damaged the rail bridge is (its certainly damaged but it hasnt collapsed) and one of the carriageways looks intact still.

Also I think there are quite a few reasons to doubt that Ukraine (or any other human actor) did it.

The remarkable "cleanness" of the breaks in the collapsed road section make me wonder about Ukrainian spec ops using shaped charges IE controlled demolition.

The truck-based explosion *might be a red herring to cover the tracks of a small spec ops team. Entirely speculation though. One way or another however, it didn't just fall down by itself.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

A bit soon to say it is destroyed - we can't see how badly damaged the rail bridge is (its certainly damaged but it hasnt collapsed) and one of the carriageways looks intact still.

Also I think there are quite a few reasons to doubt that Ukraine (or any other human actor) did it.

Close up footage this morning - nothings getting across that bridge for a long time.

 

[Tree13]

They can easily supply Crimea by sea without going anywhere near anti-ship PGMs, and have been throughout the war.

Really? Didn't know that.

If true it would make dropping the Kerch bridge more symbolic than strategic.

 

[Jebus_lives]

The war, brought to you by Paddy Power.

 

[tsubaki]

Close up footage this morning - nothings getting across that bridge for a long time.

I think they'll have some traffic over it within a week tbh

 

[tsubaki]

Really? Didn't know that.

If true it would make dropping the Kerch bridge more symbolic than strategic.

Russia's biggest port on the Black Sea (Novorossiysk) is about 50km away from parts of the Crimea - its not going to be as efficient as a rail bridge, but they can relatively cover this lost capacity for a while.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I think they'll have some traffic over it within a week tbh

Aye, maybe some nutter on a pushbike. They’re not gonna be shipping fuel and tanks over that thing for months.