Current Affairs Ukraine

[bluestevon]

So you’re judged by how many countries you invade now? Or how many lives you destroy?

Come on - you’re better than that

Nah mate, what I'm saying is a few of you are saying the poles are very eager to get involved military in the conflict, why exactly... because their leadership is rabbidly anti Russian and was way before February too, so let's all cheer on Poland.

Poland attacking Belarus starts a nuclear war, simple as that, if you honestly believe the poles have been so vocal because of anything really to do with helping Ukranians then you don't understand history in that region.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[davids]

Clock is ticking.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Right, the $64,000 question is: if he gives the order, is it followed? If not, palace intrigue bursts into the open with unpredictable consequences for the king, the nobility and the generals.

Putin is representing a hand, but he could be on a stone bluff given the amount of chips already in the pot.

His health status is an unknown factor in the internal Russian calculus too

 

[bluestevon]

One way of looking at the stalemate is this: if they do run it all the way up the bat, who gets removed first? Putin by his own, or Biden by the Senate?

What we're seeing makes it look like both of them are thinking, "The other guy."

This is not the moment we need somebody suffering with an obvious form of dementia in the white house ...

 

[larrygobfiend]

Maybe too soon,but some of the forum Call of Duty players might enjoy the "end of game" simulation.

Sorry Andy Mcnab. Forgot you were the oracle on such matters ?

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[bluestevon]

There would definitely be a response to the use of a nuclear weapon. Wouldn't necessarily be all out nuclear war but certainly a massive conventional weapons attack. Even a small tactical warhead will have massive implications for hundreds of miles or more in all directions from fallout. Also your talking about massive casualties in the 100,000's.

A massive conventional weapons attack on Russian troops or Russia itself would see the Russians respond by instantly taking out with tactical nukes Ramstein airbase and multiple NATO C&C centres including the one in the UK mate.

 

[Martin Alvito]

This is not the moment we need somebody suffering with an obvious form of dementia in the white house ...

The problem here isn't dementia. We would have gotten the same policy from Biden ten years ago. The problem is his values and his vision of the United States' place in the world. Not that there's anything wrong with that per se, but I think he may be overestimating his hand when it comes to pursuing those values and vision.

Of course, he may also be privy to information that we do not possess.

 

[bluestevon]

This is one of the core problems. Zelenskyy cannot back down. He has too much political capital invested.

If we withdraw support and more or less compel a cease-fire as a consequence, he falls. He knows this, and he has been playing to Western media to bring popular pressure to bear, because his political survival depends upon continued Western support.

Putin also knows this, which is why he has been trying to end that support by steadily ratcheting up the risk level associated with continued support.

Who removes Zelensky mate in that scenario - the far right/neo nazi element we're constantly told doesn't exist?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This has  always been the problem with nuclear deterrence. It's why McNamara shifted us from massive retaliation to flexible response in Europe once the Soviets had a credible nuclear deterrent. At the end of the day, would either side launch a full-scale strike in light of the certain consequences?

This problem is why a scenario like the one we're currently facing has always been the nightmare for Western planners - an opponent with political trouble at home escalating things right up to the brink of the cliff in order to stabilize the domestic situation.

The horrendous gambit might be to give or at least suggest that Ukraine have been given a tactical nuclear weapon as a deterent. Word around Putin suggests that he does not believe that the west will react to anything he does. To our shame we have allowed him to get away with pretty much everything for twenty odd years, so why would he. He might not be so sure about Zelensky. That would be a real left field move though.

I heard earlier that Zelensky is pushing for fast tracked NATO membership. This might be an option but would play into the mindset of Putin i.e. will NATO do anything directly - because we are scared of nuclear war.

The thing is though, as said earlier, back down to him now and he has won. The signal to China et al would be that NATO is a toothless old Tiger.

 

[bluestevon]

What ever was said, Biden appears to have left it in no doubt that Russia would regret such actions

Mid last year Biden told Putin, if you invade Ukraine you will face consequences never before seen.

That threat worked well...

 

[larrygobfiend]

This is not the moment we need somebody suffering with an obvious form of dementia in the white house ...

Putin’s a couple of McNuggets short of a happy meal himself…

 

[LinekersLegs]

Mid last year Biden told Putin, if you invade Ukraine you will face consequences never before seen.

That threat worked well...

Doesn’t seem to be exactly panning out how Putin envisioned it either tbh

 

[dublinbluenose]

A massive conventional weapons attack on Russian troops or Russia itself would see the Russians respond by instantly taking out with tactical nukes Ramstein airbase and multiple NATO C&C centres including the one in the UK mate.

Mate