Current Affairs Ukraine

[Noisy noise annoys]

No one knows for sure except the planners in the Pentagon.

But what I am sure of is that the scenario will have been wargamed and analysed countless times. A response decided upon and plans put in place.

What ever was said, Biden appears to have left it in no doubt that Russia would regret such actions

 

[LinekersLegs]

This is one of the core problems. Zelenskyy cannot back down. He has too much political capital invested.

If we withdraw support and more or less compel a cease-fire as a consequence, he falls. He knows this, and he has been playing to Western media to bring popular pressure to bear, because his political survival depends upon continued Western support.

Putin also knows this, which is why he has been trying to end that support by steadily ratcheting up the risk level associated with continued support.

I don’t think it is even just his political survival - lot easier for an “accident” to befall him and his family if they are not in a leadership position.

But it is even wider than that - would any Ukrainian leader get public acceptance to not fight for those territories? Especially given the reports of atrocities committed in them? It is one thing to let Crimea go when it was relatively bloodless and a lot of the population were keen on the idea - quite another for a city that did not want to be Russian.

Add in that Putin is not renowned for keeping his agreements.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Zelenskiy getting popped by his own side might make an agreeable solution more palatable for everyone else.

It would sell Ukraine down the river but twas ever thus.

Putin isn't around forever, Lughansk and Donetsk independent of Ukraine and Russia wouldn't be the worst outcome for them. And another opportunity arises to bring Russia back into the fold.

That's cynical at a such a level that even  I didn't calculate the move. That's an accomplishment.

The problem would be keeping involvement quiet.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I reckon Russian could EASILY get away with dropping a few nukes on Ukraine.

The West would condemn them, but we wouldnt retaliate.

The uke soldier on the radio was saying today that they don’t care. Death by ak-47, missile or nuke it’s just death that they will risk to save their country

 

[Martin Alvito]

I don’t think it is even just his political survival - lot easier for an “accident” to befall him and his family if they are not in a leadership position.

But it is even wider than that - would any Ukrainian leader get public acceptance to not fight for those territories? Especially given the reports of atrocities committed in them? It is one thing to let Crimea go when it was relatively bloodless and a lot of the population were keen on the idea - quite another for a city that did not want to be Russian.

Add in that Putin is not renowned for keeping his agreements.

Interesting question. So - yes, Zelenskyy-in-exile is a problematic symbol of Ukrainian nationalism for a successor president or regime that agrees to end the war.

Would the public acquiesce? If the alternative was annihilation and the remaining territory was guaranteed by the West - probably. Taking the 'L' would have to be a near-certainty, though.

 

[davids]

Maybe too soon,but some of the forum Call of Duty players might enjoy the "end of game" simulation.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Drico]

Interesting question. So - yes, Zelenskyy-in-exile is a problematic symbol of Ukrainian nationalism for a successor president or regime that agrees to end the war.

Would the public acquiesce? If the alternative was annihilation and the remaining territory was guaranteed by the West - probably. Taking the 'L' would have to be a near-certainty, though.

Considering Zelenskyy decided to bar most fighting-age Ukrainian men from leaving the country, I'd suspect this war is a lot less popular than some would have it.

 

[Yarrgh]

That's cynical at a such a level that even  I didn't calculate the move. That's an accomplishment.

The problem would be keeping involvement quiet.

I've become Russanised over the last couple of decades it seems...

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Martin Alvito]

Considering Zelenskyy decided to bar most fighting-age Ukrainian men from leaving the country, I'd suspect this war is a lot less popular than some would have it.

I would put it this way: the soldiers are among the more gung-ho members of the populace, and right now they're winning. They've been outperforming expectations the whole way.

If you asked that question in the wartime-equivalent of a relegation slog, you might get a different answer off-the-record.

I've become Russanised over the last couple of decades it seems...

I'm kicking myself for missing it, if it makes you feel any better.

 

[LinekersLegs]

That's the thing, it's not a demand is it. For Russia now it's a matter of kicking out Ukrainian forces from their territory.

It might be wrong, but that's how it is now. If the war remains conventional, then perhaps you'd have a point, but that's not the cards on the table.

And likewise for Ukraine it is kicking out Russian forces from their territory.

The war, at least at this point, remains conventional, and there are significant risks to Putin himself if that changes.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Martin Alvito]

And likewise for Ukraine it is kicking out Russian forces from their territory.

The war, at least at this point, remains conventional, and there are significant risks to Putin himself if that changes.

Right, the $64,000 question is: if he gives the order, is it followed? If not, palace intrigue bursts into the open with unpredictable consequences for the king, the nobility and the generals.

Putin is representing a hand, but he could be on a stone bluff given the amount of chips already in the pot.