Current Affairs Ukraine

[bluestevon]

I don’t think it is even just his political survival - lot easier for an “accident” to befall him and his family if they are not in a leadership position.

But it is even wider than that - would any Ukrainian leader get public acceptance to not fight for those territories? Especially given the reports of atrocities committed in them? It is one thing to let Crimea go when it was relatively bloodless and a lot of the population were keen on the idea - quite another for a city that did not want to be Russian.

Add in that Putin is not renowned for keeping his agreements.

Has Putin ever broken an agreement he's signed?

Minsk two was broken by Ukraine.
The various nuclear treaties where torn up by the USA.
Nord2 was cancelled by Germany.
He honoured all trade agreements including energy even after the countries the agreements where with started sanctions and military aid to Ukraine.

Not being funny here,but has he?

 

[slipstream86]

Mid last year Biden told Putin, if you invade Ukraine you will face consequences never before seen.

That threat worked well...

Should have threatened him with "fire and fury" like the orange goblin would have.

 

[Tommy.]

Mate

Bit heavy, isn't it.

Always liked @bluestevon's posts in the Everton section, always came across very well, but between stuff like that and his condescending remarks yesterday about the UK's sub capability I'm starting to suspect he's a bit too into the red, white and blue.

 

[bluestevon]

The problem here isn't dementia. We would have gotten the same policy from Biden ten years ago. The problem is his values and his vision of the United States' place in the world. Not that there's anything wrong with that per se, but I think he may be overestimating his hand when it comes to pursuing those values and vision.

Of course, he may also be privy to information that we do not possess.

Saw a gif the other day mate of Biden desperately trying to call Krushchov to negotiate a ceasefire.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Has Putin ever broken an agreement he's signed?

Minsk two was broken by Ukraine.
The various nuclear treaties where torn up by the USA.
Nord2 was cancelled by Germany.
He honoured all trade agreements including energy even after the countries the agreements where with started sanctions and military aid to Ukraine.

Not being funny here,but has he?

Article 2 of UN charter I’d say he has smashed to smithereens (as have other nations of course)
Article 2
The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.
1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from mem- bership, shall fulfil in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
4. All Members shall refrain in their interna- tional relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political inde- pendence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.


But, whilst it wasn’t a signed agreement as such hard to avoid noticing this

 

[Martin Alvito]

The horrendous gambit might be to give or at least suggest that Ukraine have been given a tactical nuclear weapon as a deterent. Word around Putin suggests that he does not believe that the west will react to anything he does. To our shame we have allowed him to get away with pretty much everything for twenty odd years, so why would he. He might not be so sure about Zelensky. That would be a real left field move though.

I heard earlier that Zelensky is pushing for fast tracked NATO membership. This might be an option but would play into the mindset of Putin i.e. will NATO do anything directly - because we are scared of nuclear war.

The thing is though, as said earlier, back down to him now and he has won. The signal to China et al would be that NATO is a toothless old Tiger.

I don't know that I would go quite as far as you do in the conclusion, but it would severely damage US credibility when it comes to security commitments.

From Ukraine's perspective, Nunn-Lugar looks like one of the worst deals in the history of mankind right now. It passed 86-8, which meant Biden was a 'Yea' without looking, but I checked anyway.

I have a very hard time seeing Biden violating the NPT and clandestinely giving Ukraine nuclear weapons. He has a record as long as your arm on that issue. He's stuck. I suppose he could look the other way if Truss did it - "the special relationship isn't that special, they don't tell me everything" - and if they wanted to do something that insane then this is  the time to move.

 

[bluestevon]

Mate

Not nice to think about it but it's what'd happen.

If leadership was targetted it'd be a fill launch of everything they've got also, it's effectively their nuclear protocol on any detected decapitation strike

 

[Yarrgh]

Who removes Zelensky mate in that scenario - the far right/neo nazi element we're constantly told doesn't exist?

Would be a convenient scapegoat. NATO and Russia could definitely join together if Ukraine suddenly lurched that way.

 

[bluestevon]

Bit heavy, isn't it.

Always liked @bluestevon's posts in the Everton section, always came across very well, but between stuff like that and his condescending remarks yesterday about the UK's sub capability I'm starting to suspect he's a bit too into the red, white and blue.

Sub capability was obviously a joke mate, UK subs are amongst the best going but like everything militarily these days there is hardly any of them.

The other part isn't anything but what would happen, anyone thinking NATO could simply take out the Russian armed forces conventionally and they'd sit there and not respond with the only thing they could do is delusional.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Has Putin ever broken an agreement he's signed?

Minsk two was broken by Ukraine.
The various nuclear treaties where torn up by the USA.
Nord2 was cancelled by Germany.
He honoured all trade agreements including energy even after the countries the agreements where with started sanctions and military aid to Ukraine.

Not being funny here,but has he?

This is a bit like arguing that Japan and China never violated trade deals.

Putin tore up the Budapest Memorandum and burned it when he annexed Crimea. Russia explicitly agreed  not to do that in return for Ukraine's surrender of nuclear weapons.

 

[Tommy.]

Sub capability was obviously a joke mate, UK subs are amongst the best going but like everything militarily these days there is hardly any of them

Maybe I misinterperated it mate, didn't read that way at the time but I'm happy to accept your explanation.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[bluestevon]

Maybe I misinterperated it mate, didn't read that way at the time but I'm happy to accept your explanation.

Wife's elder brother was a navigational officer (as she cals it) on a Yasen class sub mate so I wouldn't ever slate any submariner

 

[jaspercabbage]

Should have threatened him with "fire and fury" like the orange goblin would have.

The orange goblin would have backed Russia all the way. He praised the invasion back in february and said it was a very smart move by Putin.