Current Affairs Ukraine

[BNJ1878]

let's be honest some posters on the thread are so far up their own rear ends that it would be rude not to prick their pomposity.

Recognition and acceptance is an important first step.

Go you!

 

[PhilM]

Absolutely, it’s an easy way out for the conscripts for sure. The Russians don’t have the will or, in my belief, the heart/reason to fight this war. The Ukrainians are defending their homeland and can do this for as long as it takes (providing the west keeps on supporting them). Be even worse once the civil unrest sets in in Russia, Putin will be fighting on two fronts.

You only need to look at the indiscipline of their regulars and those who've fought in the conflict already to know how a load of press-ganged troops will fare.

And I'm talking about militarily (how they'll stand against the UA offensive) and what will occur within their own lines. There'll be no will to fight apart to survive.

With that, it'll be easier to desert individually or on mass refuse to fight and surrender. If that's difficult, some of their bosses will be meeting a grizzly end.

What's even more farcical is that their officer corps is already known to be inept, so will staff these new units? NCOs are often conscripts too and ill trained.

They aren't going to want to fight in Ukraine, nor will they be effective at stopping civil unrest. It's a fluffin' shame that so many people will die needlessly.

 

[davids]

Well it doesn’t make you an expert on geo-political power plays for sure but it does mean you have experience in military manoeuvres and equipment and likely a load of mates who have similar which I certainly don’t.
Not many posters are really an ‘expert’ on football or politics for example but there are posters opinions I will pay more respect to than others, even if I disagree.

Anyways, going a bit off topic, sure we can agree that the whole thing is horrific for all involved on the ground and especially to those that have lost people close to them. Total waste.

Your last paragraph was very "on point" and highlights how sad it is that so many posters on this thread want it to continue to the bitter end.

 

[tsubaki]

Absolutely, it’s an easy way out for the conscripts for sure. The Russians don’t have the will or, in my belief, the heart/reason to fight this war. The Ukrainians are defending their homeland and can do this for as long as it takes (providing the west keeps on supporting them). Be even worse once the civil unrest sets in in Russia, Putin will be fighting on two fronts.

Can they, and will they? More importantly, should they?

 

[davids]

Recognition and acceptance is an important first step.

Go you!

Just point me in the direction of any of my posts where I allude to any expertise. Either real or imagined.?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

As I said earlier, this mobilisation and potential move towards war will be the undoing of Putin, as the potential for civil unrest will continue to rise each day.

It will require a lot of manpower to maintain order at home and with more and more losses, which are certain to occur, those left behind at home will feel it too.

The cost of mobilisation will be immense too as each one of those men will need feeding, housing, equipping and their wages paying during their service.

Even though Russian pay and conditions aren't anywhere near western standards, it's an additional cost that will squeeze their constrained economy even more.

If they're not well-kept, it will filter down into the moral, this will lead to dissent, and it will get spread to their loved ones when they hear of the horrors.

Threatening people to enlist, providing rusty and inadequate equipment alongside a lack of training before shipping them to a pointless war is not going to work.

You can't fight a war on two fronts and this could be the outcome if unrest within Russia begins to grow, hence why Putin may soon look for a resolution.

If you lived in Republic of Dagestan or any of the satelite states you would probably be not wanting to be a part of the Putin Federation.

 

[PhilM]

Can they, and will they? More importantly, should they?

I'd say the last point is more of a yes than the first. The Ukrainian army is now relatively well-equipped and trained, with a strong incentive to fight - there's moral.

Nevertheless, each and every solider consumes a huge amount of resources including food, accommodation and pay before considering their equipment.

Ukraine is reliant on support from the west to keep them going, so as long as there is will from NATO et al. it'll continue. If there isn't, it won't.

It boils back to something I mentioned yesterday: can we (more so than they, e.g. Ukraine) afford to allow Russia to come out of this conflict with suitable gainss?

 

[wainy]

You only need to look at the indiscipline of their regulars and those who've fought in the conflict already to know how a load of press-ganged troops will fare.

And I'm talking about militarily (how they'll stand against the UA offensive) and what will occur within their own lines. There'll be no will to fight apart to survive.

With that, it'll be easier to desert individually or on mass refuse to fight and surrender. If that's difficult, some of their bosses will be meeting a grizzly end.

What's even more farcical is that their officer corps is already known to be inept, so will staff these new units? NCOs are often conscripts too and ill trained.

They aren't going to want to fight in Ukraine, nor will they be effective at stopping civil unrest. It's a fluffin' shame that so many people will die needlessly.

It’s going to be a complete mess, of that I am sure. As you said, the professional forces were ill disciplined, poorly organised and lacked any sort of logistical supply chain. It’s going to be even worse for these boys, they will get the bare minimum and they’ll be hoping they can overwhelm people with pure numbers.

I genuinely feel sorry for some of these men (not all as I’m sure some do want to go and fight) being sent to a meat grinder with poor equipment, poor leadership and I’d imagine not much support in terms of arty or CAS. And what CAS they get looks primitive at best as you’ve mentioned, kamikaze drones or jets putting themselves in real danger due to the lack of smart weaponry. I feel we are at a key point in this conflict, and who knows what Putin will do if the tide doesn’t turn.

 

[wainy]

Can they, and will they? More importantly, should they?

Can they? Depends on the west really I’d imagine. Should they? Absolutely. Would you just give up?

 

[Yarrgh]

Can they, and will they? More importantly, should they?

If they can, they will and they should.

If they can't, who knows if they will but they probably shouldn't.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Appears that the Ukes have Lyman more or less surrounded - however the main force seems to have pivoted NE and are moving steadily toward Svatove, which makes more sense as that is a strategic rail junction.

Russian defensive lines look incomplete and gaps are being exploited.

 

[BNJ1878]

Just point me in the direction of any of my posts where I allude to any expertise. Either real or imagined.?

That's not the point.

You seem determined to undermine the opinions of others, no matter how convincing the arguments they present are.

You're like Dave in the stadium thread, why?

That thread probably has a few civil engineers, maybe 1 or 2 familiar with planning regs, definitely some with more of a clue than Joe Average about how big money moves around. It doesn't stop him arguing the toss about every fine point even though it's clear they know more errrrr, actual facts.

I couldn't care less if people have actual first hand knowledge or international relations and up-to-date military tactical planning or glean information from others to share.

That's how learning generally happens, you listen to people better placed than you on a particular subject.

I have no idea if posters are passing off posts as original thoughts, frankly I don't care. So long as its interesting I'll read it and take on board new information.

You're accusations of plagiarism are unfortunately, not interesting. Why should you care?

Ps..... That's me done on this topic. Don't expect a back and forth, it's pointless.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[PhilM]

It’s going to be a complete mess, of that I am sure. As you said, the professional forces were ill disciplined, poorly organised and lacked any sort of logistical supply chain. It’s going to be even worse for these boys, they will get the bare minimum and they’ll be hoping they can overwhelm people with pure numbers.

I genuinely feel sorry for some of these men (not all as I’m sure some do want to go and fight) being sent to a meat grinder with poor equipment, poor leadership and I’d imagine not much support in terms of arty or CAS. And what CAS they get looks primitive at best as you’ve mentioned, kamikaze drones or jets putting themselves in real danger due to the lack of smart weaponry. I feel we are at a key point in this conflict, and who knows what Putin will do if the tide doesn’t turn.

As do I. Yet, on the other hand, for Ukraine to win this war and retain their sovereign territory there'll be Russian troops who will be injured and killed.

Likewise, the Russian population are going to endure suffering due to the restrictions placed on the country, and the subsequent fall in living conditions.

Some may say it's glorifying and celebrating pain and misery, which it is not, but for a suitable end for all concerned it's a terrible necessity - that's war.

Enough of the Russian people have lauded over Putin, and this is an outcome. The needs of the many springs to mind rather than a binary view of this war.