Current Affairs Ukraine

[Noisy noise annoys]

Use more acronyms,it's the way it's done on this thread. You've a lot of stiff competition though,the man who invented Trident,the man who orchestrated the invasion of Iraq,it's going to be difficult for you to stand out...but I have faith you can do it.??

Imagine getting constantly schooled and your only option is to throw a tantrum and call everyone liars.

 

[bluestevon]

Bluntly, it feels a lot to me like when the PRC sent people from the provinces into Tiananmen, because they knew good and darned well that the local army would balk at the order to clear the square.

I can see Putin fearing that conscripts from the more ethnically Russian parts of the country would balk at what he is presently asking them to do.

Likely a very true point.

Human nature at a base level makes it easier to do bad things to people who look 'different' to you, or are culturally, religiously or in other ways 'not like you,'

And if they do look like you, culturally act like you, then use another method to sell them as sub 'you'

 

[bluestevon]

With the eastern oblasts having 'referendums' and talk of Putin formally annexing the territory soon, it will legally allow him to send the new conscripts there.

Now, we know that they have already 'mistakenly' sent many conscripts to the front, but recent actions could be a precursor to filling the territories with grunts.

This may no longer be about winning their special operation, yet rather being able to have enough of a buffer to retain what they've annexed.

One could call it damage limitation, and perhaps that's why they're risking their air assets, shelling most of the front and sending lots of untrained men forward.

The seeming upsurge in sorties does tally with what I was saying to you the other day about certain Telegram reports I'd seen about a large reserve of air power being built up.

It's speculation but almost feels like the use of it now seems to be almost in combination with the mass deployment of suicide drones to be 'buying time' to allow defensive lines to solidify, the 300k to be deployed (which will take weeks) and blunt any momentum the Ukranians had.

How the mobilized people are used is a huge indicator now, will they free up trained/equipped actual military units, or will they just be thrown into the grinder. The first suggests a military end game is still seen as achievable, the second would suggest it's now throw stuff at it and hope it sticks.

Edit, third option is they are thrown in allowing the front line to be withdrawn to reserve positions and rested and re-equipped (which would be trying to emulate the Ukraine tactic which ultimately enabled the Kharkiv counter offensive - although the situation is riskier as 1. the morale won't be as high and 2. defensive positions will not be as entrenched - so the lines may not hold if they do so)

.

 

[PhilM]

The seeming upsurge in sorties does tally with what I was saying to you the other day about certain Telegram reports I'd seen about a large reserve of air power being built up.

It could be a larger concentration of air assets, or they're asking the assets they've got to fly more sorties. Which ever it is, the losses will start increasing.

Like @Mutzo Nutzo rightly mentioned, if they're being asked to fulfil the CAS role in growing numbers, it suggests their artillery isn't up to the job it's required to do.

Your point about solidifying the front is likely the most plausible: the front is crumbling, and they want/need to halt the advance to allow them to annexe it.

 

[bluestevon]

It could be a larger concentration of air assets, or they're asking the assets they've got to fly more sorties. Which ever it is, the losses will start increasing.

Like @Mutzo Nutzo rightly mentioned, if they're being asked to fulfil the CAS role in growing numbers, it suggests their artillery isn't up to the job it's required to do.

Your point about solidifying the front is likely the most plausible: the front is crumbling, and they want/need to halt the advance to allow them to annexe it.

Major issue is they aren't fighting uniformly to Russian military doctrines. They've stripped artillery to concentrate it on a certain area - which has left the traditional cauldron defensive technique unable to be used (notable most clearly in Kharkiv) hightened by also weakening their lines to an insane level.

Like in any conflict adaptability is key - Kharkiv showed that they didn't forsee the Ukranian army was now no longer employing Soviet military doctrines and was now instead fully using NATO military doctrine. And the result was almost catastrophic.

 

[bluestevon]

On a personal note I'm happy it looks like my brother-in-law has not been called up yet as a reservist submariner officer.

 

[PhilM]

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Withdraws it's troops to where?

 

[PhilM]

Withdraws it's troops to where?

I surmise they're referring to Ukraine's incursions into the eastern oblasts, which Russia aims to annexe - see the phony referendums taking place.

They know the original goals of the special military operation are beyond their reach - now, and for a long time - so may be looking to stop the UA and dig in.

In layman's terms, "We're willing to compromise now, but only on our terms, and if you don't, we'll up the ante." Like hell Ukraine will accept, and they know it.

So it ups the ante and will allow Putin to bring in even more draconian measures within Russia, bring the economy on a war footing and legalise mobilisation.

A part of this, as mentioned earlier, would be bringing the regions under their nuclear umbrella. It feels like a final power play, but one that will cause his demise.

The opposite is that it would legalise strikes from Ukraine on Russian territory. From their perspective, they're already at war, so this just gives more legitimacy.

Some people will see this as a worrying escalation and Putin and Co. going all in, whereas others will see this as the sewing of the seeds that'll pull it apart.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

It's speculation but almost feels like the use of it now seems to be almost in combination with the mass deployment of suicide drones to be 'buying time' to allow defensive lines to solidify, the 300k to be deployed (which will take weeks) and blunt any momentum the Ukranians had.

Thing is these Iranian Shahid kamikaze drones are being exclusively used against the civpop in Odessa (8 more attacks this morning).

Hardly a tactical usage against enemy troop concentrations. More of terror tactic against civilians, akin to Hitler’s use of V2 rockets against London in WWII.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Chatter on-line about another major Ukranian breakthrough near Pavlovka (SW of Donetsk).

This could very well be a new counter-offensive. Russian lines very thin in that area.

Next stop Mariupol?

 

[davids]

I (and others) have already answered the question. 1) Because Ukraine and Russia are too far apart to mutually agree to one. 2) Because there is no external authority with the power to compel them to adhere to a ceasefire, particularly given the presence of a very large number of nuclear weapons on Russia's side of the ledger.

If you grow up in the West, you're used to living in a world where authority figures can escalate things up the chain to ever-greater levels of force to keep people in line. If you punch a schoolteacher, the police get called. If you hole up somewhere and put lives in clear and present danger, the police use a much greater level of force to sort you. If you have a whole cult resisting the police, they break out the tanks (eg: Waco). If an entire state resists the national government, we have civil war.

The international system has none of that. It has courts, but to be forced to appear one has to lose a domestic power struggle or catastrophically lose a war. The international system has armies, but no one wants World War III. Imagine your city as a place where the police can't make an arrest without the unanimous consent of the mayor and the city council, they aren't allowed to arrest the mayor or the city council even if they shoot someone dead on Fifth Avenue, and every one of those officials has pet constituencies that they protect in order to get re-elected. It's a largely lawless mess with very inconsistent rules enforcement, right?

Well, that's the international system for you.

The ceasefire in the Korean War appears to be holding at the moment,but maybe it's too soon to tell yet. Well cut and pasted though,but maybe you need to send a few private messages to the group,they'll give you some tips on the acronyms that are currently on trend.
Just make sure you don't divulge too many state secrets on a football forum though.?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This wordpress timeline of events, below, is concerning. Putin has been playing the long game in getting a new leadership landscape of right leaning puppets - and backed by manipulating the masses through social media/fake news etc. It is going to take years to unpick his meddling.

Trump & Russia

An Exhaustive Timeline 1987-2018

trumprussia.wordpress.com

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Nice cut and paste. Of course you are an expert, Facebook certified by any chance?? Internet gets more weird by the week.

I don’t think it’s fair that you counter argument by baselessly denigrating someone’s credentials. It looks like you would struggle to respond so are resorting to saying they are not who they say they are.
Plenty of people on here are from all walks of life and different experiences. Embellishments happen for sure but outright liars are soon found out.
FWIW I agree that what we are generally told regarding this conflict will have a pro west/Ukraine narrative, but that shouldn’t deflect from the horrors being committed and the suffering the Ukrainians are currently experiencing.