Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

...
"They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail"

The citizens of Russia can rest assured that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be defended — I repeat — by all the systems available to us. Those who are using nuclear blackmail against us should know that the wind rose can turn around."

Stopped reading there

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

It has been the time to negotiate for months, and yes it should be again if the above happens. Yes, Ukraine would lose some land but that was always going to be the case - the idea they'd clear out the LPR / DPR (never mind Crimea) is fanciful even now. Peace proposals must be engaged with properly.

The key things in any proposal must be to get clear security for Ukraine and to once and for all deal with all issues - that means three things:

i) troops (ideally US troops but neutral ones would also be a good idea) on the ground in country, in enough numbers to provide a credible deterrent and continue to train the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
ii) an acceptance that the deal (if there is one) is final, there will be no do-overs - so Ukraine gives up any claim to Crimea, the Donbas and those parts of the other regions currently occupied whilst Russia gives up any claim to Odessa, Kharkov or anywhere else in the country. This should prevent the conflict being frozen and remove the main objection to NATO membership.
iii) full liberty for Ukraine to join whatever organization it chooses to (but encouragement to join the SCO as well as the EU)

In addition, phased removal of sanctions must follow together with an end to the SMO and related mobilizations.

WHilst it all sounds great, it really smarts that this little c*** gets his own way via death and destruction. Part of me is with Z and just says eff you, lets fight it out. I know it is not the answer but you cannot give in to bullies

As for sanctions, nah, the west must continue to starve that rat out for as long as it takes.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

He has family - he has a daughter. There’s no way he’s gonna kick off global Armageddon.

Russia has been waving the nuclear card around since the opening day of this conflict, personally I just don’t see him doing it.

However an “accident” at a nuclear power plant is a different story

He won't even sit near people for fear of getting covid or novichoc. He is scared of death. Zero chance he sets himself up to be evaporated.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I

It is the manner of defeat though. There is no way on earth Vlad "loses" this war, its not in his MO.

Either he and big Z agree a peace deal with Vlad taking the currently contested areas in the South or, it just drags on and on. Unfortunately, it feels like Z will be forced to cede a quarter of his own country in order to obtain peace, or fight to the death....

think Ukraine will get some concessions - I think the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblast borders will be re-drawn with a 100Km DMZ. Putin will keep Donetsk and Luhansk and maintain his land corridor to Crimea.

Ukraine will get Kherson and other areas in the south. Can see flare-ups and terrorist activity for many years ahead

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I

think Ukraine will get some concessions - I think the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblast borders will be re-drawn with a 100Km DMZ. Putin will keep Donetsk and Luhansk and maintain his land corridor to Crimea.

Ukraine will get Kherson and other areas in the south. Can see flare-ups and terrorist activity for many years ahead

Yeh, logic and all that.

It will be very volatile

 

[bluestevon]

Losing Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts is hardly the end of the Russian federation. So for that reason alone I don’t believe he’ll go nuclear - an escalation of the bombing campaign is definitely on the cards though.

I'd normally agree but the almost certain yes referendum vite will make them from the Russian pov Russian territory in exactly the same way any part of current Russia is mate, and it doesn't matter in terms if who accepts it as such if Russia views it as such in terms of how they'd respond to losing areas if land.

It sounds bizarre to rationalize this, but it's true, I know many Russians whose opinion completely changed on Crimea as soon as it became Russian territory again.

People went from well yeah but it's not worth fighting over it to we must do everything to protect it as it's Russian land and people.

I've Saud before I'm I guess a realist in terms if how I view situations, and from a realist perspective that's how the scenario is. Question then becomes what is the realist view on how Ukraine truly view everything and honestly the US too (few governments tell you that). Only that will determine what ultimately becomes acceptable I'm terms of ending this mess.

Is there a way both sides save face and can sell it as 'winning' I dunno, total defeat either way though will likely end badly for the entire world.

 

[bluestevon]

I

think Ukraine will get some concessions - I think the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblast borders will be re-drawn with a 100Km DMZ. Putin will keep Donetsk and Luhansk and maintain his land corridor to Crimea.

Ukraine will get Kherson and other areas in the south. Can see flare-ups and terrorist activity for many years ahead

Timing is important also, about when if it does - does any accord happen, the longer any conflict goes then the more difficult an exit ramp becomes.

After Kharkiv I felt that Ukraine's hand was at its strongest point so far and potentially that was the moment to push heavily to get the most favourable solution.

If Russia regroups and goes in harder and especially if it starts seeing dramatic gains - then the pendulum swings again.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I'd normally agree but the almost certain yes referendum vite will make them from the Russian pov Russian territory in exactly the same way any part of current Russia is mate, and it doesn't matter in terms if who accepts it as such if Russia views it as such in terms of how they'd respond to losing areas if land.

It sounds bizarre to rationalize this, but it's true, I know many Russians whose opinion completely changed on Crimea as soon as it became Russian territory again.

People went from well yeah but it's not worth fighting over it to we must do everything to protect it as it's Russian land and people.

I've Saud before I'm I guess a realist in terms if how I view situations, and from a realist perspective that's how the scenario is. Question then becomes what is the realist view on how Ukraine truly view everything and honestly the US too (few governments tell you that). Only that will determine what ultimately becomes acceptable I'm terms of ending this mess.

Is there a way both sides save face and can sell it as 'winning' I dunno, total defeat either way though will likely end badly for the entire world.

IMO he’s using that card to bring Ukraine into negotiations.

What does he really want - that’s the big question. IMO it’s always been

1. Luhansk and Donetsk as part of the RF
2. Land corridor to Crimea
3. Full control of the Sea of Azov

By calling referendums in Zaporizhia and Kherson he gives himself leverage in negotiatons.

So when they sit around the table give and take is on. They agree to certain concessions and they re-draw the borders.

Just my take on it - the whole referendum and mobilization thing is a play by Putin to get Ukraine to negotiate.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

The likes of Mearscheimer and other very noted experts with no investment in the matter are on record saying one thing Putin doesn't do is bluff mate, I tend to believe their analysis based on years of speeches and actions they've studied rather than hope someone like Truss, Biden or Stoltenberg knows him better

He loves the high life, palaces, yachts, younger women etc. he even is so obsessed about his life that he gets botox!

He is not a man driven by rage and principle who would walk into death. He is happy to send others but not himself. You will not see him doing what Zelenski is doing and visiting troops or areas under threat. He seems to be a coward.

 

[bluestevon]

He loves the high life, palaces, yachts, younger women etc. he even is so obsessed about his life that he gets botox!

He is not a man driven by rage and principle who would walk into death. He is happy to send others but not himself. You will not see him doing what Zelenski is doing and visiting troops or areas under threat. He seems to be a coward.

You've accused me of being niave mate. If you think any of the major players in this entire sh*tshow are driven by principle then that's truly niave

 

[bluestevon]

IMO he’s using that card to bring Ukraine into negotiations.

What does he really want - that’s the big question. IMO it’s always been

1. Luhansk and Donetsk as part of the RF
2. Land corridor to Crimea
3. Full control of the Sea of Azov

By calling referendums in Zaporizhia and Kherson he gives himself leverage in negotiatons.

So when they sit around the table give and take is on. They agree to certain concessions and they re-draw the borders.

Just my take on it - the whole referendum and mobilization thing is a play by Putin to get Ukraine to negotiate.

Can't argue really with anything in that post.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

You've accused me of being niave mate. If you think any of the major players in this entire sh*tshow are driven by principle then that's truly niave

You have missed the point of my comment, I'm saying Vlad won't be pressing any nuke buttons.

 

[dublinbluenose]

The likes of Mearscheimer and other very noted experts with no investment in the matter are on record saying one thing Putin doesn't do is bluff mate, I tend to believe their analysis based on years of speeches and actions they've studied rather than hope someone like Truss, Biden or Stoltenberg knows him better

He's been constantly threatening to use nukes since he came to power 2 decades ago

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

He's been constantly threatening to use nukes since he came to power 2 decades ago

Yeh, but apart from that, Syria, Georgia,Chechnya etc, he just wants peace and is misunderstood.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Yeh, but apart from that, Syria, Georgia,Chechnya etc, he just wants peace and is misunderstood.

In his distorted world unfortunately.