Spadge Vernacular
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Nukes won't happen. Putin does not have a launch button. there is a chain of command to launch.
Current Affairs Ukraine
- Thread starter Mutzo Nutzo
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Tennessee Blue Mike
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I agree but I don't discount a Nuclear Plant incident doing the dirty work for Putin.
Spadge Vernacular
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Factbox: The chain of command for potential Russian nuclear strikes
Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the weekend that his nation's nuclear forces should be put on high alert, raising fears that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could lead to nuclear escalation.
bluestevon
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Thing is the nuclear bluff was only part of a greater part and I've not seen it often reported as the full context of how he says it very often if indeed at all in the reports. For those interested the exact transcript of the relevant part of a much longer address - I've included a clip highlighting maybe the most valid point he actually makes (Good old Truss)
Putin’s nuclear ultimatum is a desperate bid to freeze a losing war
Vladimir Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine is a sign of the Russian dictator's mounting desperation as his invasion continues to unravel and his country's geopolitical isolation deepens.www.atlanticcouncil.org
"They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction — nuclear weapons — against Russia.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liz-truss-nuclear-button-ready-b2151614.html
I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.
The citizens of Russia can rest assured that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be defended — I repeat — by all the systems available to us. Those who are using nuclear blackmail against us should know that the wind rose can turn around."
bluestevon
Player Valuation: £80m
The likes of Mearscheimer and other very noted experts with no investment in the matter are on record saying one thing Putin doesn't do is bluff mate, I tend to believe their analysis based on years of speeches and actions they've studied rather than hope someone like Truss, Biden or Stoltenberg knows him better
He has family - he has a daughter. There’s no way he’s gonna kick off global Armageddon.
Russia has been waving the nuclear card around since the opening day of this conflict, personally I just don’t see him doing it.
However an “accident” at a nuclear power plant is a different story
tsubaki
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Sadly I agree with you, he was very clear in his speech (though then again he didn't actually say nuclear, he said "all available means") and extremely serious thought should go into what the West does after any annexation.
If Russia is staring into the abyss, alone and defeated, he may have no other option. There really is no telling what he can do. He has managed to get his generals this deep, could he get them in deeper?
This really. Would it be time to to talk peace? The reality is that it should not, Ukraine have been invaded, a quarter of its land mass taken, and then for the good of the world, have to suck it up. Would peace hold in those regions? Can Putin be trusted not to go again? Would Zelenskiy accept a deal?
There is soon going to be 300,000 troops on the "new" border.... time for some serious questions.
bluestevon
Player Valuation: £80m
Do I think he will, no, do I think if it was a choice between the destruction of the Russian Federation or that, then yes I actually believe he would (a long ago comment about 'a world without Russia is not a world worth having') suggests strongly his view has never altered on that fact.
I don't think he will, as I feel when Russia escalates hugely as I believe is inevitable I think the Ukranian army will collapse unless NATO becomes directly involved - if I'm right on that I seriously hope a settlement happens soon as either scenario will be horrific for different reasons.
Losing Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts is hardly the end of the Russian federation. So for that reason alone I don’t believe he’ll go nuclear - an escalation of the bombing campaign is definitely on the cards though.
It is the manner of defeat though. There is no way on earth Vlad "loses" this war, its not in his MO.
Either he and big Z agree a peace deal with Vlad taking the currently contested areas in the South or, it just drags on and on. Unfortunately, it feels like Z will be forced to cede a quarter of his own country in order to obtain peace, or fight to the death....
Spadge Vernacular
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They are properly rattled 
Do they realise thay western nukes would not target fields but would land on their cities and military bases.
Do they realise thay western nukes would not target fields but would land on their cities and military bases.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
It has been the time to negotiate for months, and yes it should be again if the above happens. Yes, Ukraine would lose some land but that was always going to be the case - the idea they'd clear out the LPR / DPR (never mind Crimea) is fanciful even now. Peace proposals must be engaged with properly.
The key things in any proposal must be to get clear security for Ukraine and to once and for all deal with all issues - that means three things:
i) troops (ideally US troops but neutral ones would also be a good idea) on the ground in country, in enough numbers to provide a credible deterrent and continue to train the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
ii) an acceptance that the deal (if there is one) is final, there will be no do-overs - so Ukraine gives up any claim to Crimea, the Donbas and those parts of the other regions currently occupied whilst Russia gives up any claim to Odessa, Kharkov or anywhere else in the country. This should prevent the conflict being frozen and remove the main objection to NATO membership.
iii) full liberty for Ukraine to join whatever organization it chooses to (but encouragement to join the SCO as well as the EU)
In addition, phased removal of sanctions must follow together with an end to the SMO and related mobilizations.
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